Outlook for 2013 - FLHurricane.com

Another interesting season up ahead. With an expected neutral and a continuation of the positive MDO the safe bet, the one that requires as little thinking as possible, is for an above-average season as far as total numbers of named storms/hurricanes/majors are concerned.

Unfortunately, hurricane seasons rarely follow formulas to the letter. Even in seasons that "ought" to be one way or another, a number of other variables, or an unexpected shift in one of the main variables, say, an unexpected El Nino, can absolutely torque a seasonal forecaster's best efforts.

My best guess for this season now stands at 17 Storms, 10 Hurricanes, 4 Majors, and I expect that the range this year is really, to be candid, more or less 10-22 Names, 7-12 Hurricanes and 2-6 Majors.

Needless to say, I view 2013 as a lower-confidence year for the seasonal forecasters, despite that fact that so many are in phenomenally good agreement right now.

Let's take a look at the seasonal forecasts that have been released so far (and the only ones I think are really worth "counting" if one is going to try to compare expert seasonal forecasts against climatology, because by the time Aug/Sept rolls around, most folks really don't need a tropical weather 'expert' to tell them which way the season's winds are blowing).

Sample of Professional Seasonal Forecasts Released Prior to June 2013 for Upcoming Atlantic Season

Agency Tot. Storms Tot.Hurricanes Majors

Colorado State	18	9	4
WSI (TWC)	16	9	5
TSR	15.3	7.5	3.4
UKMET	14	9	N/A
Accuweather	16	8	4
Cuban INSMET	17	9	N/A
Weatherbell	16	12	5
NOAA	16.5	9	4.5

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So yes, it is plainly obvious from above that the bulk of the professional seasonal forecasters in 2013 are in a range of about 16 Names, 9 Hurricanes & 4 Majors. Another very, very active year, if verified.

But before even commenting on strikes vs. formation, how about a look at how pre-June seasonal forecasts actually hold up against reality, and just so nobody can accuse me of cherry-picking, I am simply going to use the past three seasons from what are generally regarded by many as three of the very top seasonal forecasting agencies.

Year Agency Forecast (N/H/M) Actual (N/H/M) Miss

2012	NOAA	12/6/2	19/10/2	-11
2012	CSU	10/4/2	19/10/2	-15
2012	TSR	13/6/3	19/10/2	-11
2011	NOAA	15/8/4.5	19/7/4	-5.5
2011	CSU	16/9/5	19/7/4	-6
2011	TSR	13/7.5/3.5	19/7/4	-7
2010	NOAA	18.5/11/5	19/12/5	-1.5
2010	CSU	15/8/4	19/12/5	-9
2010	TSR	16/8/4	19/12/5	-8

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If the past three years are any indication (and they are), three different agencies covering three different seasons, thus totalling nine seasonal forecasts, only provided one out of the nine that was basically accurate (NOAA 2010). Two out of the nine were in the ballpark (NOAA 2011 & CSU 2011), leaving six out of nine, fully two-thirds, as varying degrees of bust.

In the end, it doesn't really matter to any individual in any given year how many total named storms/hurricanes/majors there are. What matters most in any given year is where they go, and maybe to a lesser degree, when they go there.

I've added a best-guess strike map for this year to my own seasonal best guesses, and it is available for view by clicking on the attachments tab up at the top. For what it's worth, I believe 2013 will have an above average to much above average threat of U.S. landfalls. This is due in part to the overall numbers of tropical cyclones produced, and the most probable steering currents throughout the season.

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