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Archives >> 2013 Storm Forum

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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC 34.11N 77.91W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: weatherhead]
      #94291 - Tue May 21 2013 09:10 AM

13/8/5



--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #94292 - Tue May 21 2013 09:53 AM

Here in La. we've had a relatively cool May with fronts coming through and on into the GOM fairly regularly unlike last year when we had 90 degree plus temperatures and drought conditions in May. With the fronts we've had a lot of rain too.

With that in mind I see a limited season this year compared to recent seasons; however, I want to temper that with the notion that TWC seems to be more agressive in naming storms than they have been a decade or two ago and consequently we see more marginal storms named than we once did.

I'm going with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes but only 3 major canes. I think this season will be more heavily weighted to the Atlantic Ocean and the GOM will be relatively quiet with only tropical storms, no canes.

I think this season is going to be relatively weak like last season, but all it takes is a Sandy to hit in the right spot under the right circumstances to cause a lot of grief.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94296 - Sun May 26 2013 12:40 AM

So far only 15 participants in the 2013 version of guesstimating the seasons totals. This thread will close on June 1st at 00Z (8PM EDST on May 31st) so you still have until Friday evening to toss your numbers into the fray.
Cheers,
ED


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JimB
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Central FL
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94297 - Sun May 26 2013 09:28 PM

10/7/2

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: JimB]
      #94298 - Sun May 26 2013 09:39 PM

13 Tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Joeyfl]
      #94299 - Mon May 27 2013 01:59 PM

15/10/5

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94302 - Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM Attachment (292 downloads)

Another interesting season up ahead. With an expected neutral ENSO and a continuation of the positive MDO the safe bet, the one that requires as little thinking as possible, is for an above-average season as far as total numbers of named storms/hurricanes/majors are concerned.

Unfortunately, hurricane seasons rarely follow formulas to the letter. Even in seasons that "ought" to be one way or another, a number of other variables, or an unexpected shift in one of the main variables, say, an unexpected El Nino, can absolutely torque a seasonal forecaster's best efforts.

My best guess for this season now stands at 17 Storms, 10 Hurricanes, 4 Majors, and I expect that the range this year is really, to be candid, more or less 10-22 Names, 7-12 Hurricanes and 2-6 Majors.

Needless to say, I view 2013 as a lower-confidence year for the seasonal forecasters, despite that fact that so many are in phenomenally good agreement right now.

Let's take a look at the seasonal forecasts that have been released so far (and the only ones I think are really worth "counting" if one is going to try to compare expert seasonal forecasts against climatology, because by the time Aug/Sept rolls around, most folks really don't need a tropical weather 'expert' to tell them which way the season's winds are blowing).



Sample of Professional Seasonal Forecasts Released Prior to June 2013 for Upcoming Atlantic Season

   Agency                                                                                                      Tot. Storms                        Tot.Hurricanes             Majors
Colorado State 18 9 4
WSI (TWC) 16 9 5
TSR 15.3 7.5 3.4
UKMET 14 9 N/A
Accuweather 16 8 4
Cuban INSMET 17 9 N/A
Weatherbell 16 12 5
NOAA 16.5 9 4.5

HTML Tables



So yes, it is plainly obvious from above that the bulk of the professional seasonal forecasters in 2013 are in a range of about 16 Names, 9 Hurricanes & 4 Majors. Another very, very active year, if verified.

But before even commenting on strikes vs. formation, how about a look at how pre-June seasonal forecasts actually hold up against reality, and just so nobody can accuse me of cherry-picking, I am simply going to use the past three seasons from what are generally regarded by many as three of the very top seasonal forecasting agencies.

      Year                      Agency                               Forecast (N/H/M)                                   Actual (N/H/M)                                 Miss
2012 NOAA 12/6/2 19/10/2 -11
2012 CSU 10/4/2 19/10/2 -15
2012 TSR 13/6/3 19/10/2 -11
2011 NOAA 15/8/4.5 19/7/4 -5.5
2011 CSU 16/9/5 19/7/4 -6
2011 TSR 13/7.5/3.5 19/7/4 -7
2010 NOAA 18.5/11/5 19/12/5 -1.5
2010 CSU 15/8/4 19/12/5 -9
2010 TSR 16/8/4 19/12/5 -8

HTML Tables



If the past three years are any indication (and they are), three different agencies covering three different seasons, thus totalling nine seasonal forecasts, only provided one out of the nine that was basically accurate (NOAA 2010). Two out of the nine were in the ballpark (NOAA 2011 & CSU 2011), leaving six out of nine, fully two-thirds, as varying degrees of bust.

In the end, it doesn't really matter to any individual in any given year how many total named storms/hurricanes/majors there are. What matters most in any given year is where they go, and maybe to a lesser degree, when they go there.

I've added a best-guess strike map for this year to my own seasonal best guesses, and it is available for view by clicking on the attachments tab up at the top. For what it's worth, I believe 2013 will have an above average to much above average threat of U.S. landfalls. This is due in part to the overall numbers of tropical cyclones produced, and the most probable steering currents throughout the season.


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SchexStorm
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: New Iberia, LA
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94303 - Mon May 27 2013 07:04 PM

I will guess 16/7/4

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: cieldumort]
      #94304 - Tue May 28 2013 01:53 AM

As an afterthought, I wanted to mention that I don't believe the odds of a below-normal season to be very good - I'm of the opinion that we will most likely see an average to hyperactive year in 2013, biased to be at least above average, with a breakdown something like this: In bottom 5 seasons: 0%, well below avg: 2%, below avg: 8%, about avg 20%, above avg 20%, well above avg: 25%, in top 5 seasons: 25%.

Basically, baring a surprisingly fast developing El Nino, excessive SAL, or other such unforeseen event, I would simply want to bet that 2013 continues the general trend seen since 1995 consistent with the warm AMO phase, which if anything, has only become more pronounced (Image below).



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Hurricane29]
      #94305 - Tue May 28 2013 07:52 AM

Mine is 15/7/2

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: MikeC]
      #94306 - Tue May 28 2013 11:34 AM

18/11/5

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 120
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Fletch]
      #94307 - Tue May 28 2013 12:12 PM

20/12/6

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: dolfinatic]
      #94310 - Tue May 28 2013 10:30 PM

Going to be big year i think... 2005 like numbers... and an early Cape season i believe... I don't see Florida missing out on a Hurricane this year.... i know... sounds bad. But the overall pattern IMO looks very, very active.
27 Systems
24 Named Storms
19 Hurricanes
9 Major Hurricanes

Let's hope for a quite one!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 28 2013 10:31 PM)


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eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #94318 - Wed May 29 2013 07:19 PM

I'll throw in a guess -

22 Named Storms

12 Hurricanes

5 Major Hurricanes

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Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay 28.32N 80.77W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94324 - Thu May 30 2013 05:18 PM

Been listening to the Mets. Even my daughter who says this is going to be a crazy year. (says floridians just know the weather...lol) So we talked it over and here is our shot into the dark...

19 Named
9 Hurricanes
6 Major (ouch)

wish cast..they all become fish spinners.

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94325 - Thu May 30 2013 07:10 PM

Excellent information from cieldumort. If we believe in following the trends, which I will this year, then this is fairly easy with the recent data. There have been a few more dramatic year to year swings in the last dozen years or so, but I do not see any reason for the current trends to change significantly.

I am also going with 18 / 11 / 5 .


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: IMTechspec]
      #94329 - Thu May 30 2013 10:04 PM

Glad to see everyone back in the saddle! it has been one of the weirdest winters I can remember in 40 years of watching the weather in Florida. I guess it would not be odd to have an unusual storm season. I just hope Florida's run of luck continues. Going for 3 decent predictions in a row....
I think I am going to split the middle of a couple and go with:
18 named
9 hurricanes
4 strong storms
This is one year I hope we overestimate!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #94331 - Fri May 31 2013 01:04 PM

In just under the bell, it's been a crazy year on this end, I just started school at Georgia Tech where I'm aiming to get both a second undergraduate degree and an M.S. in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences college. I still haven't decided if I want to focus on Meteorology or Climatology, Heck, maybe both?

Anyway onto my prediction
19 Depressions
18 Tropical Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Bloodstar]
      #94332 - Fri May 31 2013 01:42 PM

Go for it! There is many a day I wish I had gone into meteorology instead of being put off by the physics and math requirements! I had the chance and passed it by!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94334 - Fri May 31 2013 05:31 PM

Last minute guess- 19/10/3

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