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Archives 2010s >> 2013 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
x-Tropical Storm Barry Raining Out Over Mexico.
      #94455 - Mon Jun 17 2013 07:58 AM

4AM CDT 20 June 2013 Update
Barry is making landfall on the Mexican state of Veracruz as a 45MPH tropical storm. While the strongest winds are almost all occurring offshore, a few potent gusts can be expected in spots over land.

Of far more concern is the growing risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, as Barry slowly pushes inland over increasingly mountainous terrain. Widespread rainfall totals of 3" to 5" are expected, with localized totals over 10" possible.

Ciel

11AM CDT 19 June 2013 Update
Recon is en route to find out if TWO has become Barry - with an upgrade to named storm very likely sometime today. A Mexican navy meteorological station has already recorded nearly 1-min sustained winds at tropical storm force north of the estimated center.

As for track and timing, recon should help determine if the old surface center still holds, or has been/is being replaced by the vigorous mid-level circulation establishing itself at the surface, which is to the north of the old LLC. High res satellite images suggest the latter, and indeed it is the northernmost circulation that NHC is tracking and forecasting on.

Ciel

Weather Conditions at Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Conditions at Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico

4AM CDT 19 June 2013 Update
The structure of TD2 has continued improving overnight, although a recent ASCAT pass from late last night really highlighted the strained call as a tropical cyclone, as the surface center and mid-level center were still miles and miles apart, with the surface center even still interacting with land. On the other hand, that ASCAT pass also suggested maximum sustained winds at the surface have likely increased to about 35MPH.

Considering the improved banding, increased deep convection within the mid-level center, and that most of the system is now over water, only an easily achievable tiny increase in maximum sustained winds would now make the depression a storm, and so the government of Mexico has chosen to upgrade from watch to warning: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a considerable portion of the state of Veracruz, from Punta el Lagarto to Barra de Nautla.

The main threat with TWO will continue to be from heavy rain and potential flooding, whether the cyclone becomes a named storm, or remains a depression.



Ciel

2PM CDT 18 June 2013 Update
What remains of TD2 is rather ill defined today. It appears that there are multiple surface or near surface swirls traveling with what might be an open wave at this point. However, for continuity purposes, and the likelihood that the area of disturbed weather will be back out over open water very soon, NHC has opted to operationally follow this as if it were still intact, but it remains to be seen if what is left of TD2 can sufficiently reorganize once back out over the Bay of Campeche.

The primary swirl associated with Two is presently located near 18.5N 91.8W, and is within hours at the most of at least partially reemerging over very warm water. On its current projected course, which Two or its remnants look to be following well, the low will probably spend a few days over the Bay of Campeche, before moving back inland along extreme southern Mexico.

The primary concern with Two continues to be its potential to cause heavy rains and flooding.

Ciel

Original Update



An early season tropical wave, Invest 93L, has been pulling partially offshore overnight Sunday in the northwest Caribbean, and it appears that some semblance of a surface circulation has been taking shape, at least sporadically, despite so much of the disturbance's core traveling over land.

While 93L is the kind of tropical low pressure area that may very well become a tropical cyclone while riding the coast, its odds of becoming an officiated tropical cyclone would still be much better if it either pulls or re-centers further north, over the warm waters of the northwestern Carib.

Being that 93L is already moving along and/or over so much land, and that Belize and the Yucatan are just up ahead, any further development will be restricted by time. However, regardless of development, very heavy rains with the potential for dangerous inland flooding will occur for some time to come along its path.

By mid-week, it is possible that 93L will track into the Bay of Campeche, and have another shot at significant development. Alternatively, 93L may just rain itself out over southern Mexico, or even pass into the eastern Pacific, and possibly develop over there.

One way or another, 93L looks like it will be around for a while, and so we will likely continue monitoring this feature for several days.

Weather Conditions at Roatan Island, Honduras
Weather Conditions at Belize City, Belize
Weather Conditions at Aeropuertola Aurora , Guatemala


Barry Event Related Links


float2latest.gif stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Barry
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Barry


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Barry (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Barry (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Barry

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Barry
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Barry -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



94L July Event Related Links


float3latest.gif stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=3 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



95L July Event Related Links


float4latest.gif stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Edited by MikeC (Sat Jul 06 2013 07:57 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Caribbean Invest 93L Continues Organizing [Re: cieldumort]
      #94456 - Mon Jun 17 2013 08:30 AM



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Depression Two Nearing Bay of Campeche [Re: cieldumort]
      #94458 - Tue Jun 18 2013 04:48 PM

As of 4PM CDT Monday, TD2 has maintained sufficient structure as it heads into the Bay of Campeche to warrant NHC continuing advisories. In fact, it still looks possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm prior to final landfall along the extreme south coast of Mexico.

Quote:

NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.




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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TD Two In Bay of Campeche [Re: cieldumort]
      #94461 - Wed Jun 19 2013 02:07 PM

RECON is inbound to TD Two and initial wind reports from the NE Quad indicate TD 2 may be upgraded to TS Barry shortly.

1200 foot winds in the NE Quadrant are presently above 28 mph with a max wind, so far, of 41 mph.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD2 May Already be Barry - Recon Heading In [Re: cieldumort]
      #94462 - Wed Jun 19 2013 02:10 PM

At 19/1734Z, Recon reported a surface wind speed of 33 knots in the main feeder band about 75 miles to the northeast of the satellite indicated center. Visible imagery suggests a low center near 20.1N 94.7W at 19/18Z, or a little to the north northeast of the NHC position but Recon should soon determine a more precise location.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD2 May Already be Barry - Recon Heading In [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94463 - Wed Jun 19 2013 02:28 PM

RECON making a turn to the NW at/ near 19.6 N/ -94.8 W. Definite change in wind directions at that point, but not like what is usually seen when passing through a storm center.
Winds veered from SE to S to SW while turning toward the NW.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TS Barry - Recon [Re: danielw]
      #94464 - Wed Jun 19 2013 02:50 PM

TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL022013
145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE
SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Post Tropical Storm Barry now Cyclone Barry [Re: danielw]
      #94466 - Fri Jun 21 2013 03:23 AM

Remains of Barry are located 60 miles ENE of Mexico City,MX with sustained winds of 25 mph at 1 AM CDT.

First day of Summer is here. Now wait for the Super Moon this weekend. Very close and very large.

System off of the SE US Coast should be watched with one eye this weekend as the MJO is now forecast to move toward the 8 and 1 sectors. Extreme positive MJO near the 4th of July. With the MJO entering sector 8 in 3 to 4 days.

I'm still learning the MJO aspects and forecasts. So bear with me on this.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 21 2013 03:34 AM)


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