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Archives 2010s >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Chantal Lounge
      #94473 - Sat Jul 06 2013 08:06 AM

This is the lounge discussion for Chantal in the Atlantic.

When it formed as 95L, global models don't seem to pick up on this yet, but the others suggest it could near or clip the northeastern Caribbean. The GFS tends to keep it weaker and enters the Caribbean, while some of the others strengthen it and turn it more northerly. Currently the dry air around it will keep it from developing in the short term, but if the system persists through this, it has a better chance of development later.

Odds favor it turning out to sea before the US, but a lot remains to be seen. This lounge is to discuss what may or may not happen with the system.

Early model runs (Which are usually trash at this point) suggest it may develop after several days.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94474 - Sat Jul 06 2013 01:44 PM

It's up to 30% now.You can see from SAT that it is getting better organized. Conditions around it should improve over the next few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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typhoon_tip
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94477 - Sat Jul 06 2013 02:56 PM

Hello - some personal obs:

Low SAL in its immediate vicinity and ahead of its current trajectory; large plume of SAL lurks N, however, so not much wiggle room.

Despite low SAL, dry air alone does encircle the Invest envelope. This can be overcome by rigorous internal processes associate with quasi-coupled ocean/air consistent with TS modeling.

Shear is low. There are moderate easterlies in the mid and upper levels in the region of the Invest, however, the Invest's movement along with those vectors is making for a bit of SRS favorable environment, and low relative shear.

Centroid blob of convection is nearly collocated with the perceived axis of rotation associated with at least the mid levels. According to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html ...they do not have a floater yet focused on Invest 95, so it is harder to make a more discrete analysis.

I do not believe the Atlantic is as conducive to early curving seaward, as the scenario of abundant subtropical ridging currently is ubiquitous around the Basin. There is a weakness of sort at around 50W, but Invest 95 is too far S [most likely] to be picked up by it. Moreover, most middle and extended guidance suggest that only after a brief and partial dismantling, the Bermuda ridge might restrengthen. It could turn out precarious if a TC were to mature as it neared 70W, so long as there is a block N, and notable weakness in the geopotential medium along 80 W. Those 2 circumstances are A and B in the list of getting a threat all the way across. Lots of time.

John


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #94480 - Sun Jul 07 2013 05:48 AM

Sunday HWRF and GFDL Model summary:
Both of the 00Z runs, and at least one of the 06Z runs forecast 95L to become a Tropical Storm.
Forecast path, at this writing, 6 AM EDT Sunday, is along a north of Barbados, to over/ near Martinique and then toward the Dominican Republic where the system is sheared by the mountains.
The remains of the system move NW just south of the Turks and Caicos Island chain and dissipate near Andros Island, Bahamas.

See Clark's model runs for images and the latest models forecast.
http://flhurricane.com/images/2013/clark4latest.png

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 07 2013 05:50 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #94481 - Sun Jul 07 2013 08:07 AM

The Euro doesn't have a great handle on this system, but it takes it slightly north of the Caribbean and loses it around Saturday (possibly turning north). The GFS model moves it right into the Caribbean as a weak system, and eventually dissipates it. Judging by the condition of 95L now and the immediate forecast, I don't think either of the global models really have a good handle on the system yet.



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MichaelA
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94482 - Sun Jul 07 2013 09:12 AM

I agree that the models haven't really latched on to this system just yet. There isn't a lot of historical guidance for storms in that region/area forming in early July; simply not what one would expect so early in the season. SSTs are fairly high already, so we may be in for a wild ride this year. It also looks like the wave train is setting up over the African continent a bit early too.

--------------------
Michael

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #94484 - Sun Jul 07 2013 12:26 PM

Recon may start on this system on Monday, depending on how it geos, Dvorak T numbers are at a 2 this afternoon, but the circulation really isn't all that good and it still has a lot to make it through before development, but it is on the rise.

It's probably going to be a rainmaker for the east Caribbean islands and then it's a bit up in the air, either it stays south in the Caribbean and basically never does much (rides an getts torn up along the n. Caribbean islands), or it creeps up to the north and hits the threat potential for the southeast up by this coming weekend. Either way it'll be something to watch this week.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94489 - Sun Jul 07 2013 05:32 PM

From everything I can see,I think 95L will go right to TS status.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94490 - Sun Jul 07 2013 06:52 PM

it may, but a few days out i suspect it may fall apart when it approaches the eastern Caribbean, the fact the wave season is starting may be overall more interesting.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94491 - Sun Jul 07 2013 07:04 PM

Quote:

it may, but a few days out i suspect it may fall apart when it approaches the eastern Caribbean, the fact the wave season is starting may be overall more interesting.




Yea,I am seeing those waves.Amazingly early for this.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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RevUp
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94492 - Sun Jul 07 2013 07:44 PM

At this point in the season in the tropical Atlantic, it's a little unusual but great to have something to look at, which may become quite a rain maker for the NE Caribbean.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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ftlaudbob
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: RevUp]
      #94500 - Sun Jul 07 2013 11:10 PM

The east coast of Florida may have to watch Chantal by next weekend.Still alot can happen.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94502 - Mon Jul 08 2013 09:17 AM

Still a bit too early to tell exactly what will happen, the NHC's track is the best compromise though, even though it may be a bit too far south/west. How strong or weak it is seems up for grabs. By the time it gets in the Bahamas, the steering currents may collapse so there may be a bit of a loop off the coast, which will keep it in the picture for Florida (most likely weak, but hard to say this far out) late this weekend.

Land interaction when it approaches Hispaniola and Cuba is another wildcard.

The rapid movement of the storm is keeping development in check right now, and it likely won't slow down until it passes south of Puerto Rico. It'll be a rough day on the Leeward/Windward islands, but shouldn't be too bad.

This may be the start of several of these types of waves coming across this season.





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MichaelA
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94504 - Mon Jul 08 2013 11:42 AM

The GFDL seems to hint at the loop/stationary movement at the end of the most recent run just NE of the Bahamas. Time will tell.

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Michael

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #94505 - Mon Jul 08 2013 12:46 PM

12Z GFS has landfall near Cape Canaveral +153 hours out (Sunday late afternoon), then a second landfall in Louisana a few days later.

This will likely change, but if that persists, expect a lot more activity here.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

A few more runs (and the euro run) will be helpful to see if this persists, there may be a weakness in the ridge that allows the storm to curve away from Florida, so it appears the global "model wars" may be on for this system.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94507 - Mon Jul 08 2013 02:18 PM

12Z Euro loses Chantal and opens it up near Cuba, not a good init for it, it seems.

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doug
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94508 - Mon Jul 08 2013 04:07 PM

Neither of these two models are bullish on the system...poor initialization? Or, too many variables to confront the system? Recon data may clarify a bit.
The Euro has a stronger opinion on the strength of the ridge.

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doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: doug]
      #94511 - Tue Jul 09 2013 12:14 AM

G F S tonight has an interesting run a bit further east than before, at least in the near term. As of now it's about to 141 hours out, and it has a rough track strikingly similar to Jeanne from 2004 so far. (just a little more north. It appears lt again is predicting landfall in east central Florida around Melbourne to Cape Canaveral overnight Sunday into Monday and spends the entire day Monday and part of Tuesday over Central Florida. (A bit stronger than the 12Z also, with more time over warm water)


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Random Chaos
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94513 - Tue Jul 09 2013 05:34 AM

GFDL is also showing a hook back toward Florida, similar to the GFS. GFS continues the storm across FL into the Gulf, but substantially weakened. However, anything, even a remnant, in the Gulf bears close watching.

Looking at the wide area tropical Atlantic IR, there are several systems showing signs of turning in addition to Chantal: (1) a cluster of thunderstorms near the Bahamas and (2) a wave near the eastern edge of the frame. Models are not developing either of these.

GFS is also showing a strong wave coming out of the eastern Atlantic in the next few days - looks like something to keep an eye on.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94514 - Tue Jul 09 2013 07:07 AM

6Z GFS along with the Euro do not show much for Chantal, the 6Z GFS loses it on the eastern Bahamas, the Euro never really shows it at all. So there are two runs not showing much at all for the system.

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