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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Tropical Storm Flossie (East Pacific) Lounge
      #94566 - Tue Jul 23 2013 04:20 PM

Quite unusual for a Lounge thread on an East Pacific Invest, however, Invest 98E, located at 12.0N 115.6W at 23/18Z, does have a chance for additional development and it could bring some weather to the Hawaiian Islands in about a week. At 18Z the winds were sustained at 25 knots, pressure was 1007MB, convection was slowly developing, and movement was to the west southwest at 10 knots. SSTs are 29C but they become a few degrees cooler near and west of 135W longitude. Some of the models suggest additional development. The next name on the Eastern Pacific list is Flossie. Infrequently whenever a system might pose a potential threat to the Hawaiian Islands we will start an appropriate thread to cover it - remember this thread is only for long range discussion of Invest 98 E .
ED

(Title updated to reflect current storm status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 25 2013 11:27 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 98E (East Pacific) Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94567 - Tue Jul 23 2013 07:52 PM

A tidbit from the Honolulu WFO Area Forecast Discussion:
"The forecast for early next week is highly uncertain since a tropical system may be approaching the islands."

The 23/18Z GFS continues to bring a tropical cyclone into the Hawaiian Islands next Tuesday. It would be a rare event for Hawaii to experience a tropical cyclone moving in from the East - normally they come into the Islands from the South or even the Southwest. Still a considerable amount of time to see how this system evolves. Latest satellite loops suggest that the developing center may be forming a little more to the south closer to 11N rather than 12N. At 24/00Z a weak circulation center is noted at 11.2N 117.8W.
ED


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vpbob21
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Re: Invest 98E (East Pacific) Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94584 - Wed Jul 24 2013 11:44 PM

As of 11:00 EDT (8:00 PDT) this has been upgraded to TD 6-E, about 2200 miles ESE of Hilo.

This looks like one of those typical systems that form in this area and run into the wall of low SST's and end up reaching the islands as a low cloud swirl. Generally speaking these systems have to stay below about 15N to be able to reach the longitude of the Hawaiian islands as more than a dying TD (such as 1994's John, which actually reached the Western Pacific - a 3-basin storm!). This one is not even predicted by NHC to reach hurricane status before hitting 24-25 deg. SST's in about 3 days. Hopefully there may be enough left of the system to bring some rain to the islands, especially the Big Island, parts of which are in extreme drought.


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