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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Wave in Central Carribean (Invest 92L Forecast Lounge)
      #94659 - Tue Aug 13 2013 11:52 AM

The NHC has opined that this feature has a 30% chance of development by the end of the weekend. If it does it will develop near the western extent of the Carribean and into the extreme southern GOM. If development does occur there is model indication that it will move mostly northward toward the central Gulf coast. The most reliable models are not develpoing this, yet; although the most recent GFS does place a low feature in the Central Gulf coast area at the end of its run...early next week.
Too much conjecture for anything definitive, but enough chatter to merit paying attention too, IMO.

(Thread title updated to reflect current system status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 13 2013 07:16 PM)


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #94663 - Tue Aug 13 2013 06:53 PM



A relatively potent tropical wave associated with a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean has been getting a little better organized today, and is now being followed as Invest 92L.

92L is forecast to travel generally north-northwest to north, and several models do develop it by mid/late week.

This is where to put our mid to long range thoughts on 92L's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

(Combined threads to avoid duplication.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 13 2013 07:18 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94664 - Tue Aug 13 2013 08:03 PM

Looking at the 18Z GFS Ensemble runs.
For 2AM EDT Saturday. The lowest pressure and highest forecast wind speed for 92L.
58 kts, or 67mph and 1003.6mb

Location of 92L at 2 AM Saturday varies from Just North of the Bay of Campeche to the Mouth of the MS River in Louisiana to over the Tallahasse, FL area. Lots of play in the ensemble.
20 members in the ensemble.
Of the 10 members with 2 closed isobars, they are forecast between The Mouth of the MS River and Apalachicola,FL with one exception being the one just north of the BOC.

Canadian is slower and brings 92L into Pensacola,FL area Saturday night at 998mb and 45 kts, 52mph.
Way under what a 998mb could be, 77mph


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Wave in Central Carribean (Invest 92L Forecast Lounge) [Re: doug]
      #94666 - Wed Aug 14 2013 02:59 AM

I looked at the both the 14/00Z GFS and 13/12Z ECMWF and took a look at the UKMET as well; for the moment there is no consensus with the GFS and ECMWF; the gurus at WPC and NHC for the moment are leaning with the ECMWF and UKMET which moves the system generally west-northwest. The GFS can't be dismissed if you believe the upper level trough retrogrades back towards the west and the upper level ridge over the WAO builds westward in the days ahead. I'm not going to venture a guess...it's mute until this system gains some vertical structure and depth.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Wave in Central Carribean (Invest 92L Forecast Lounge) [Re: berrywr]
      #94669 - Wed Aug 14 2013 07:16 AM


The GFS (6z) takes it into the Central Gulf, very elongated, and arrives in southeast Louisiana on Saturday, potentially development (bug disorganized) at that time.

The (CMC) Canadian model overnight takes 92L westward into the Gulf and deepens it rapidly, with a major cane coming ashore in south Texas. This seems much less likely.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Wave in Central Carribean (Invest 92L Forecast Lounge) [Re: doug]
      #94691 - Wed Aug 14 2013 10:21 PM

Still a bit of disagreement in the forecast for 92L if it moves west, more northerly, or splits/elongates. The latter is the most likely. Which would, along with shear and other poor conditions, keep it relatively weak. Still worth watching over the next few days, but it looks unlikely to develop before it reaches the Yucatan at this point.

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Wave in Central Carribean (Invest 92L Forecast Lounge) [Re: MikeC]
      #94695 - Wed Aug 14 2013 11:36 PM

Upper level low/trough is in front of the system and wind shear aloft is between 30 and 40 knots; however, there is an upper high in close proximity to the center of broad circulation. The system is much less impressive than earlier today but both the ASCAT & OSCAT continue to indicate 25 to 35 knot winds in the eastern semicircle. The new 15/00Z NAM has shifted its track much further north than its 14/12Z run.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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