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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
TD8 Forecast Lounge
      #94761 - Fri Sep 06 2013 12:59 PM



This is a quick note to mention that Invest 99L has been acquiring considerable convective organization over the past 18 hours, and is now pushing slowly inland into eastern Mexico.

Invest 99L will likely be a candidate for post-season reanalysis should it not be upgraded prior to landfall today.

Maximum sustained winds are conservatively estimated to be about 35 MPH, and it is worth noting that around 1AM local time a ship recorded winds up to about 44MPH, at least in gusts.

99L is forecast to bring the Mexican states of Veracruz and Tamaulipas widespread 3" to 5" of rain, with locally higher amounts, today through tomorrow, as the incipient cyclone slowly pushes inland, potentially resulting in life-threatening floods and mudslides.

Some models want to keep 99L, or some of its energy, around in the far western GOM for several days, so this is something that needs to be watched. A tropical low more or less stationary right along a coastline can be very dangerous even without significant development, as persistent flooding rains can become a great risk under such a scenario.

This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on 99L's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Title edited to reflect upgrade to TD8

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 06 2013 03:21 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 99L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94763 - Fri Sep 06 2013 01:40 PM

Invest 99L is now EIGHT, and advisories should be out within the next hour or two.

It is very possible that most of EIGHT is inland by the time the first advisory prints, so those in the immediate path of 99L (EIGHT) should already be taking precautions for a strong depression or tropical storm - with the greatest risk being flooding rains.


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