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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 Storm Forum

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Area of Interest - TS Humberto
      #94765 - Sat Sep 07 2013 02:07 PM

Located in the Far Eastern Atlantic emerging from Africa is a strong Tropical Wave with an associated forming low pressure area. The NHC currently gives this system a 30% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 80% chance of development within the next five days.

(Title updated to reflect current storm status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 09 2013 09:32 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Invest 91L [Re: JoshuaK]
      #94766 - Sat Sep 07 2013 11:58 PM

Now up to 60% in the next 48 hours and 90% in the next 5 days.

NWS issued a special update to their outlook at 11pm for this system (normally it is at 2pm and 8pm for the outlooks).


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Invest 91L Off West African Coast [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94767 - Sun Sep 08 2013 12:50 AM

At 08/00Z, Invest 91L was located just off the central West African coast at 13.5N 17.6W or well to the east southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Winds are at 25kts and pressure is 1007MB with movement to the west at 9 knots. SSTs in the area are 28C and the system has emerged into a light but narrow shear-free zone. As noted, NHC has taken a rather aggressive stance on the likelyhood of additional development. Some of the early model outputs rapidly intensify the system, however, it is also worth noting that a zone of westerly shear exists just to the north of the developing Invest area which could eventually temper the rate of development..
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - TS Humberto [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94770 - Sun Sep 08 2013 12:23 PM

At 08/12Z, Invest 91L was located at 13.1N 19.0W and the disturbance was moving west at 7 knots. Winds are still at 25kts and pressure is now 1008MB. Although NHC still suggest a high probability of additional development, this confidence is probably based on the GFS model output and its rapid spin-up of the system - but in reality this wave doesn't look too much different from the earlier shredded systems that have exited the West African coast. Westerly windshear still seems to be hampering the organization of the northern portion of the system. Examining the windshear forecasts, the best opportunity for development of this system would seem to be from Monday evening or Tuesday morning through early Thursday when the westerly windshear would have less of an influence on the system.
ED

(Title updated to reflect current system status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 09 2013 09:33 AM)


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