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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2014 Storm Forum

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94970 - Sun May 18 2014 02:01 PM

10/5/2 looks reasonable for me...already had tropical wave brush by, so perhaps early start them tapering off when the forecast El Nino takes hold
Sorry Ed already had 10/5/2...I will amend: 11/6/2 final number

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Mon May 19 2014 10:48 AM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: doug]
      #94971 - Thu May 22 2014 11:43 PM

Had a bad miss last season. I do NOT like the looks of either 1968 where 4 storms came ashore in Florida or 2006 with 2 landfalling storms. We can always use rain but much more is NOT appreciated. Sounds like they are iffy about Mr Nino this season. Going to go with a mix of last season and the analogs:
14/4/2

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: doug]
      #94972 - Fri May 23 2014 01:27 AM

Note that its okay to have the same numbers as someone else.
Cheers,
ED


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94973 - Sat May 24 2014 03:02 PM

Quote:

Note that its okay to have the same numbers as someone else.
Cheers,
ED



Where's the fun in THAT, Ed!! There are far too many individualists here to want to TIE with someone else!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94974 - Sat May 24 2014 04:07 PM

I'm going to go conservative this year, considering the likelyhood of a major El Niño event for the second half of the season.

8/2/0

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94975 - Sat May 24 2014 09:32 PM

Only about a dozen inputs so far. I guess with a quieter season anticipated, the site activity is also a bit quiet. You still have a week to go to add your own seasonal forecast to the list before this thread is closed on June 1st. Thank you to all that have contributed!
ED


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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 58
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94976 - Sun May 25 2014 08:15 AM

It's funny, people that I talk to that don't really follow weather, but have lived here in Florida all there lives are expecting a bad hurricane season. No reason, and they tell me they haven't expected one in a long time, they just feel it in there bones. I learned a long time ago, these are the old folks I listen to. Lot of times they tend to be closer than the experts. (Plus, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Andrew and Jeanne all happened during El Nino years if I remember correctly.) Sticking with 12/7/3.

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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #94979 - Sun May 25 2014 08:04 PM

I'm still going with 16/9/4 because of the bad winter we had in the NE

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #94980 - Sun May 25 2014 09:17 PM

It only takes one hurricane that affects you directly to make it a bad year. Every year has the potential of producing a devastating storm that could cross the coastline, no matter if it's a busy year or a less than normal year.

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Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: MichaelA]
      #94981 - Sun May 25 2014 11:53 PM

Probably the best case in point is 1992. Looked like a SLOW season getting all the way to the 2nd week of AUGUST before seeing the first named storm and hurricane....but what a storm. Only 7 storms total, 4 hurricanes and 1 major but when the major is Andrew, it was a BAD season!! I don't care if the forcast was for 0-0-0, I am not letting my guard down on these things!

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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beachcrafts
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: in Boynton Beach, Fl 26.53N 80.10W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94984 - Thu May 29 2014 02:32 PM

8/5/2

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: beachcrafts]
      #94985 - Thu May 29 2014 09:38 PM

I... I am not sure what to say, You have the El Nino that seems to be forming and forming stronger than usual. SSTs seem to be only silghtly above normal. So With that in mind, despite Feeling like we're in an active phase, I'm going to go with
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04

PS - I will have my undergraduate degree in EAS next spring if everything holds up, then I'll start the graduate level program in the fall (not sure if I want to stop at masters or get a full PhD, depends on if I can earn money while getting the Doctorate) Here's hoping!

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94986 - Fri May 30 2014 09:56 PM

A review of SST climatology indicates that in addition to 1968 and 2006, 1976 (9/6/2) is also a good analog year. This thread will close in about 26 hours at midnight (EDT) Saturday night so you still have time to add your forecast into the mix - but not much time left. Good luck with your forecast entry!
Cheers,
ED


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94990 - Sat May 31 2014 03:55 PM

13/8/2

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94991 - Sat May 31 2014 09:07 PM

11 / 4 / 1

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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94992 - Sat May 31 2014 09:42 PM

12/4/2

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94993 - Sat May 31 2014 11:35 PM

The best part about this, is after an epic bust like most everyone made in 2013, it gives the opportunity to bust all over again ;-)

The usual disclaimers:
1. I believe seasonal hurricane forecasting is only marginally more accurate than climatology, and does little to nothing to tell us about exactly where these tropical cyclones will go.
2. "It only takes one."

I am leaning strongly to the development of an El Niño this year - and possibly a significant event. Coupled with a continuation of other inhibiting trends seen in the Atlantic basin during the latter half of 2013, it seems more likely than not to me that 2014 will end up having a generally below average season, with the number of Storms, Hurricanes & Majors all limited in the Atlantic, but with a likelihood of more record-setting development in the central and eastern Pacific*

Atlantic Basin: 9 Names, 3 Hurricanes, 1 Major


*On May 25th of this year, Hurricane Amanda intensified into the most powerful May hurricane on record in the East Pac, as well as having become the 2cd earliest East Pacific Major.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94994 - Sun Jun 01 2014 12:21 AM

We ended up with 20 participants - not bad for a season that is expected to be a lot quieter than the last three have been. The range was from 6/1/0 to 16/9/4 and the rounded average was 11/5/2.
CSU forecast: 9/3/1
TSR forecast: 12/5/2
NOAA forecast: 11/5/2 (rounded)

We'll revisit the list at the close of the season and see how we did - and I think that its safe to predict that the results will be significantly better than last season
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 - The Final Tally [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95381 - Sun Nov 30 2014 11:13 PM

Although an El Nino did not develop, the Atlantic basin had below normal activity in 2014. The final storm totals were 8/6/2. In general, the site forecasts this year were a lot better than 2013. Here are the rating categories:

0 to -2 Outstanding - 1 forecast
-3 to -4 Excellent - 4 forecasts
-5 to -6 Good - 9 forecasts
-7 to -8 Fair - 3 forecasts
-9 to -15+ Hmmm - all the rest (3 forecasts)

beachcrafts -1
doug -3
ED -3
MikeC -4
Wingman51 -4
rmbjoe1954 -5
cieldumort -5
Glen Johnson -6
B.C.Francis -6
JoshuaK -6
gsand -6
MichaelA -6
IMTechspec -6
vpbob21 -6

Compared to the 2013 forecasts, 2014 was quite an improvement. Here is how the agencies did:

NOAA -4
TSR -5
CSU -5

With a total of 9/5/2, 1979 was the best analog year. At the start of the New Year I'll start the 2015 Outlook and we'll try to keep on pace with the excellent forecasts that were made this year.
Cheers,
ED


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