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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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TD#2 Forecast Lounge
      #95126 - Mon Jul 21 2014 10:02 AM

The well-developed tropical wave that moved off the west African coast a few days ago is now Invest 92L in the central Atlantic. NHC gives the system a small chance for additional development in the next couple of days as the Invest area moves to the west and eventually west northwest.. This is the place for your thoughts on the long range future development (if any) and track of 92L.
ED

Edited by MikeC (Mon Jul 21 2014 04:59 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95129 - Mon Jul 21 2014 11:56 AM

My early guess, It may get toward the Eastern/Mid Caribbean, but will wind up getting picked up and out before it gets toward the mainland US. It's still July.

It'll follow a familar rule of thumb from the past several systems. Weaker system, it'll manage to nudge further west, stronger, the more likely it'll eventually recurve, and kicked out by trofs. Most of the models haven't picked up on it yet, and it is so small they may have difficulty doing so. So it'll be worth watching for the trends on this one.

The system is in a pocket right now, surrounded by very unfavorable conditions. The small size will likely make it swing up/down pretty rapidly, so it's really hard to say right now how strong or weak it will be by the time it gets to the Caribbean.


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doug
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95130 - Mon Jul 21 2014 03:04 PM

It is early for the operational models in this but, so far, the main ones lean toward maintaining the Atlantic Ridge throughout the period...that could mean a deeper penetration into the Caribbean. As far as its environment...just on the moisture content alone it has enough to survive... it is kind of on the western edge of a wetter atmosphere that seems to have depth to its south and east . It is to the north, and NW that there is a lot of dry air. not clear on shear forecasts

--------------------
doug


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LoisCane
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95131 - Mon Jul 21 2014 03:31 PM

Hard to say. Recon data would make for better model runs.

The high seems to build in and that would keep it further to the left. Next week also has another repeat early Fall Front in late July moving East and South. If it does get into the Caribbean it could be a bigger problem if it stays intact as it would be pulled north by a strong front. It's a complicated forecast for a small, compact system that logic says should not be there even as the dry air should have stopped it from forming.

The Caribbean is more fa vorable currently than it has been and worth noting the wave behind Invest 92L

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Rides along the bottom of the SAL
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/static/animations/goes/atmospheric/latest_wv_loop.gif

Seems to be pulling up moisture from below it and what is more curious to me is that it continues to add moisture behind it for other waves yet to come.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rCUMP_048.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

Very complicated forecast with too many intangibles to be sure of anything.

Only reality is that is that it IS there still and has steadily intensified all day.

(Edited for Title update only.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 21 2014 07:22 PM)


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doug
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #95135 - Tue Jul 22 2014 10:34 AM

Well we have a better picture today...and things have changed. The system has separated itself from the moist environment that was behind it and dry air has surrounded it. Ahead it will encounter a large upper cyclonic flow in the Caribbean and the predicted demise of the system seems inevitable.

--------------------
doug


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95136 - Tue Jul 22 2014 12:32 PM

I don't remember seeing such a tightly wound but tiny little system out in this area before....at least in a long while. Seems to be embedded in some dry (saharan?) air but with a small plume of moisture out in front of it. I am not especially impressed with its prospects but with so little shear in front of it, there seem to be possibilities. This is definitely a system that will give the models new information on a very different type of system and that is always good for improving model accuracy (if the information is utilized correctly).

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2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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doug
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95138 - Tue Jul 22 2014 01:13 PM

recent pictures suggest the convection is waning

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95139 - Tue Jul 22 2014 09:39 PM

Sometimes small systems can provide some big surprises (and sometimes not), but go to the link below. Do a Water Vapor 30-image animation loop (about 15 hours of data) and notice how the moisture is lifting north ahead of the cyclone. The dry atmosphere surrounding this system certainly has held further development in check - but TD2 keeps finding enough energy from the ocean to maintain a status quo and the dry air to the south of the system has moistened up this evening. At the moment TD2 is in the midst of yet another convective burst. I still don't expect TD2 to last too much longer, however I'm going to keep an eye on this one for awhile. A small cyclone will usually keep on going, even with no convection, until something disrupts the circulation center. With an almost stationary upper level low over the south shore of Mississippi, the WV does hint at the long range path of least resistence toward the Bahamas (if the circulation center somehow manages to avoid the Greater Antilles and last that long).
ED

MSFC Caribbean Water Vapor Image


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95142 - Wed Jul 23 2014 08:52 AM

The last couple of frames of water vapor loop this morning appear to be showing a major loss of convection as the system deals with dry, dusty saharan air on its north side. This could be the beginning of the end for our little depression. It maintained a much more consistent area of solid convection all day yesterday. Could also be some shear from interaction with the low to its northwest.

Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Wed Jul 23 2014 08:53 AM)


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doug
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95143 - Wed Jul 23 2014 01:00 PM

Ed, wasn't Katrina formed from one of those little persistent vortexes that meandered "lifeless" across the Atlantic and then fired up off the SE Florida coast?

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95144 - Wed Jul 23 2014 01:52 PM

I can't recall about Katrina, but just as soon as NHC dropped TD2 it flared up quite nicely again. The LLCC is located on the southeast edge of the convective ball. One of the hardest things for meteorologists (including those at NHC) to master is 'patience' when it comes to the nuances of tropical cyclones, i.e., you just don't want to react to every little structural change or track wobble. Being patient requires decision management over a period of time longer than the past few hours - and, because 'weather' is such a perishable commodity, its not an easy thing to master. Interests in the central Lesser Antilles still face the likelyhood of heavy showers with strong wind squalls tonight.
ED


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Happy Birthday craigm
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95146 - Wed Jul 23 2014 04:49 PM

Quote:

Ed, wasn't Katrina formed from one of those little persistent vortexes that meandered "lifeless" across the Atlantic and then fired up off the SE Florida coast?



Doug your correct. I pulled this off of Wikipedia assuming it's accurate:

'Tropical Depression Twelve formed over the southeastern Bahamas at 5:00 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC) on August 23, 2005, partially from the remains of Tropical Depression Ten, which had dissipated due to the effects of a nearby upper tropospheric trough. While the normal standards for numbering tropical depressions in the Atlantic indicate that the old name/number is retained when a depression dissipates and regenerates, satellite data indicated that a second tropical wave combined with Tropical Depression Ten north of Puerto Rico to form a new, much more advanced system, which was then designated as Tropical Depression Twelve.[1] Simultaneously, the trough in the upper troposphere weakened, causing the wind shear in the area to relax, thereby allowing the new tropical depression to develop. In a later re-analysis, it was determined that the low-level circulation of Ten had completely detached and dissipated, with only the remnant mid-level circulation moving on and merging with the aforementioned second tropical wave. As a result, the criteria for keeping the same name and identity were not met.'

--------------------
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doug
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Re: TD2 Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #95147 - Thu Jul 24 2014 01:05 PM

Thanks Craig...nice summary.

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doug


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