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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Storm Forum

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Area of Interest - Bertha
      #95148 - Mon Jul 28 2014 02:06 AM

A cluster of heavy showers and some thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave in the central Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 93L.

As of 2AM EDT July 28, Invest 93L was located about 550 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands moving generally westward at around 12 knots, with maximum sustained winds estimated to be no more than about 25MPH, but with higher gusts primarily in thunderstorms.

While extremely dry air remains plentiful in the Atlantic basin, 93L is traveling westward along the monsoon trough within a cocoon of moist, unstable air, and over increasingly warm SSTs. Conditions along its path are expected to become even more favorable for further development throughout the upcoming week, and this feature has easily better than even odds of becoming a tropical cyclone as it continues westward, tracking toward the Caribbean.

Ciel

Edited by MikeC (Thu Jul 31 2014 11:21 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 93L [Re: cieldumort]
      #95152 - Mon Jul 28 2014 09:36 PM

As of 9:15PM EDT July 28, Invest 93L has been getting much better organized, with even some, albeit clumsy, banding-like features spiraling in towards a deep ball of convection that is sitting atop surface winds that had just about fully closed off as of earlier this evening, as can be seen in the Scatterometer image below*



*ASCAT has a noted conservative bias, and winds within 93L were possibly higher than suggested by the pass above.

It now appears likely that 93L could become a numbered tropical cyclone as soon as later tonight.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 93L [Re: cieldumort]
      #95153 - Mon Jul 28 2014 10:07 PM

Invest 93L currently undergoing a convective burst at the center which was located at approximately 9.7N 35.7W at 29/01Z. Winds at 25 knots and pressure at 00Z of 1010MB with movement to the west at 13 knots. SSTs along the projected track toward the mid to northern Lesser Antilles of 28 to 29C. Tropical cyclone formation seems likely - perhaps as early as Tuesday morning. Light windshear along the projected path to the west and west northwest in the next three days should provide a good environment for additional intensification of this moderately-sized system.

UPDATE: At 29/04Z, position was 9.6N 36.6W. Movement remains due west at about 16kts.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 29 2014 01:03 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 93L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95158 - Tue Jul 29 2014 06:36 AM

Still not declared as a closed system by NHC - surprised, the motion of it looks closed as does that wind scatter above. Good microwave picture from NRL this morning.

Long range...hope that ridging in the Atlantic erodes faster than is forecast! Or is stronger than forecast. I don't like the east coast chances right now.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 93L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #95159 - Tue Jul 29 2014 11:01 AM

My first look at this at 10:45: it has not continued to organize as there is some disruption in the core area from earlier images. Still moving to the west. There seems to be some easterly shear affecting the development.
Slower development and more persistent westerly movement will alter tracks to the west obviously. Still a wait and see system, IMO.

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 93L [Re: doug]
      #95165 - Thu Jul 31 2014 10:21 AM

At 31/12Z, the center of Invest 93L was located at 11.0N 51.4W and, although movement during the night had been to the west northwest, the system has resumed a movement to the west this morning. Northerly windshear has displaced convection to the south of the center and the center itself is not as well formed and is now elongated east-west. Although winds were posted at 30 knots, the center elongation has probably reduced those wind speeds. Given those conditions, I doubt that NHC will dispatch a Recon flight today - but if they do, it is not likely that they will find enough data to support a system upgrade at this time.

It is worth noting that the overall windshear forecast is not as aggressive today as it was yesterday with windshear zones generally on the decline, so future development chances should again be on the increase. The system should pass over or near Barbados early Friday evening while moving more northwesterly toward St. Lucia so we will certainly get a read on system strength at that time. Continued westward adjustments to the forecast track could bring the system into the Dominican Republic on Sunday.
ED

Antilles Radar Composite


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 93L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95166 - Thu Jul 31 2014 10:50 AM

I agree, and from what I have discerned from other more knowledgeable sources than me, the window for development may be limited to today only...so its "get 'er done" or out probably for this little system. The current satellite representation shows there is much to do and the displacement from convection is continuing with none developing near the exposed center...life support....at this time, low probabilities from my perspective.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Jul 31 2014 10:57 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 93L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95189 - Mon Aug 04 2014 11:35 PM

At 05/03Z Bertha was located at 31.3N 73.1W and movement is becoming more toward the north northeast. The center is partially exposed and the last Recon data did not support hurricane intensity. The highest wind found was at 65 knots but that was at flight level. Bertha has probably been a Tropical Storm since 04/21Z and a slow weakening process should continue as the cyclone moves off to the northeast and eventually east northeast over the next few days with extratropical transition likely by Thursday (if not a little sooner).
ED


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