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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Invest 90L Forecast Lounge
      #95289 - Wed Sep 03 2014 04:24 PM

This one takes a peek into a possibility for the future - at a real long range view. Satellite analysis would suggest a tropical low (update: now designated as Invest 90L) near 13N 13W at 03/18Z which should exit the West African coast early Thursday morning. The system is well defined but most of the convection is south of the center. Model consensus places the center near 12N 36W at 08/00z moving to the west at 13kts and near 17N 54W at 10/12Z moving to the west northwest at 18kts. Note that the ECMWF is slower to develop this system and the GFS & UKMET are quicker to develop it. Its worth mentioning that so far this season there have been other rather impressive systems that have exited the coast into the east Atlantic - and promptly fizzled out. Nevertheless, its the next system to monitor.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 04 2014 08:44 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95291 - Thu Sep 04 2014 09:01 AM

Pouch 27L is now offshore the West Africa coast and has been designated as Invest 90L. The Invest area is moving west at 15 knots and the long range 06Z GFS solution (which I'm sure will change many times in the week ahead) suggests that, if this system indeed does develop, it might be something to pay attention to. Early model runs are rarely the final solution.
ED


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