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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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weatherhead
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Florida
Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95297 - Wed Sep 10 2014 05:10 PM

92L is located just E of Northern most Bahamas.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 11 2014 09:53 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Invest 92L Forecast Lounge
      #95299 - Wed Sep 10 2014 05:39 PM

A suspect area that has been slowly organizing near the northern Bahamas has been designated as Invest 92L. The initial early model runs at 10/18Z bring the system ashore on Friday afternoon between Jupiter Inlet and Miami as a weak Tropical Storm. Northerly shear could inhibit development but warm SSTs of 30C and the Gulf Stream could enhance development. This is the place for your thoughts on the future track and intensity of this system.
ED


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95301 - Thu Sep 11 2014 06:15 AM

Just saw the new on Orlando WESH Channel 2. Seems as though Central Florida is going to experience some dry air for the next couple of days. The moisture associated with 92L will stay to the south. She said there is a chance of development once 92L gets into the Gulf.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95303 - Thu Sep 11 2014 12:47 PM

92L has had a burst of convection in the past few hours...bears watching. Obviously fertile grounds for rapid development if conditions come together.

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doug


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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 52
Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95304 - Thu Sep 11 2014 01:23 PM

Interesting radar shot.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/current%20weather%20conditions%20%28radar%29


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #95305 - Thu Sep 11 2014 02:06 PM

I would say the basic COC of this system is much farther north than Miami...looks pretty impressive on the radar views and it DOES seem to have flared a bit today. I am on the western edge of influence and our skies are partly cloudy and looking pretty stable this afternoon. Dewpoint around 70 and barometer at 30.04. Only a 30% official chance of rain but a nice line is forming from Orlando southeast to the Big Lake....I am thinking there could be some significant rain on the east side of this system and along its track from east to west. If you are in central or south FL, keep eyes and ears open...

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95306 - Thu Sep 11 2014 04:31 PM

The COC is almost due east of Stuart and movement is perhaps a shade south of due west, but officially west and slow. The low is controlling the winds in a broad area from west central Florida back to the southern Bahamas. Convection is more persistent and concentrated on the south and to the west of the COC, but a defined squall line is developing to the west and north. Shear remains a big factor as the shear seems to be from various directions depending which quadrant of the area being influenced by the low you are looking at. Shear to the east and south of the system seems to be southerly and to the west from the north east. The shear will inhibit the convection and appears to be a factor for the foreseeable future as the system will be squeezed between the ridge over the southern states and its dry air and the influence of the large upper low to its SE with its dry air. However as the local weather reports from stations over the peninsula reported, precipitate moisture in the atmosphere over the system and the peninsula will support convection.The path will follow the southern flow under the ridge to the west.

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doug


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