I am in Fort Myers where I work...It seems that the shear has pushed all convection well south of the COC which is directly over the Lake and moving almost due west. There is some rotational signal in the radar of the activity exiting off the Collier/Monroe County line, but the low level circulation is displaced to the north by about 75 miles. The forecast for the shear continuing does not bode well for too much out of this in the short term. So far very benign.
Update: It looks as if the ULL to the east over the Bahamas has won this battle...dry air covers the area where the COC is located and the shear from the ULL has shunted all convection SW from that center. The ULL is regressing westward. All in all it is a very complex pattern influencing things from Texas to the Bahamas and IMO 92L will not be a factor.
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