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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Gonzalo Forecast Lounge
      #95322 - Fri Oct 10 2014 09:44 AM

The area east of the caribbean is something to watch, odds very much favor it recurving away from the US, but it may come close enough to cause rough surf.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 12 2014 02:04 PM)


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doug
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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95325 - Sat Oct 11 2014 10:20 AM

Satellite shows this system is developing this morning...little, if any, shear over this system. It is being pulled along by the flow following in the wake of the system that spawned Faye. As Faye pulls out N to NE the ULL over the Bahamaa looks as if it will regenerate and this will pull 90L northward and eventually out as the strong front from the NW that is forecast to be in the the SE CONUS in the middle of the week pushes it away...I agree no CONUS involvement.
GFS yesterday hinted at lowering pressures in Campeche area in the next ten days as the result of something drifting N from EPAC. Frankly, if the mainland is to be affected this year something will have to come from that sort of development., IMO. This is the time of year for that to occur,,,

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95326 - Sat Oct 11 2014 02:35 PM

The GFS does indeed eventually pull this one out to sea - and cranks it up to a Major in the process. My only concern would be the strength of the ridge that is created as Fay pulls off to the north and northeast - something to watch.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Gonzalo Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95331 - Sun Oct 12 2014 02:10 PM

A cold front moving off the east coast in a few days is expected to 'catch' the system by mid-week and pull it northwest to north where it could become a strong hurricane. Bermuda needs to monitor this one for potential impact later in the week.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Gonzalo Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95333 - Sun Oct 12 2014 04:48 PM

Things seem to be developing relatively quickly with Gonzalo now. The storm is small and seems to be on a deepening trend right now, watches/warnings are up for the Caribbean islands, and things may happen relatively fast, so a few people may be caught offguard there.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Gonzalo Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95334 - Sun Oct 12 2014 05:03 PM

The discussion mentions a primitive eye developing, which probably means the 5PM windspeed estimate is very conservative. It has a decent shot at rapid intensification, which could surprise those in the watch/warning area. Small systems like these, looking as decent as this one does right now tend to be underestimated.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Gonzalo Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95339 - Tue Oct 14 2014 08:15 AM

Gonzalo now expected to intensify to Cat III later today while continuing on a northwest track. Next in line looks like Bermuda. Although Gonzalo could be on a weakening trend at that time, it still looks like hurricane force winds are possible on Bermuda Friday evening.
ED


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