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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2014 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Hurricane Ana Heads Toward Hawaii
      #95341 - Wed Oct 15 2014 01:34 AM

TS Ana, currently about 750 miles east southeast of Hilo at 15/05Z, is expected to intensify to hurricane strength today. Chances are increasing that Ana will pass just off South Point, Hawaii, early Saturday morning as a 90mph hurricane and just off Ewa Beach, Oahu, around Noon on Sunday as a 75mph hurricane. This would mean hurricane force winds on the southern portions of the Big Isle and on Oahu along the south shore from Diamond Head to Waikiki, Pearl Harbor, Ala Moana, Honolulu and Ewa Beach - with tropical storm force winds over the remainder of the island chain. Its still a long way out but right now I don't see much that would change that track forecast.
Residents and visitors in Hawaii need to closely monitor and prepare for what could become a significant threat from this tropical cyclone.

Ana Satellite Image

Central Pacific Hurricane Center


Additional comments on this system can be found in the Other Storm Basins Forum.
ED


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CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Ana Heads Toward Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95343 - Wed Oct 15 2014 05:21 PM

Mahalo Ed. Here's my take on the situation ...

Unfortunately, Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) "ANA" is still on track to pay it's unwelcomed visitation upon these Beautiful Hawaiian Islands, which may not be quite so beautiful in it's wake.

A sort of "worse case scenario" appears to be unfolding. Here's why:

Unlike Hurricane "ISELLE" (a tropical storm upon landfall) only a few short months ago, which *smack dabbed* into the Big Islands' MASSIVE Mountainous Mauna Loa and had the Living Bejesus knocked out of it (mountainous terrain utterly shreds tropical cyclones to smithereens) ...

... instead, Hurricane "ANA" is currently expected to brush by *just under the southern tip* of the Big Island, (thus, unfortunately, avoiding it's untimely demise at the hands of Mountainous Mauna Loa), and then proceed to make a gentle arc up towards the Smaller Islands of Maui, Oahu and Kauai.

In fact, the latest official track has "ANA" passing *within* a mere 20 miles (Yikes!) of the south coast of Oahu, which would put us in the Strongest, most Dangerous part of the Cyclone; the much dreaded and feared "Eyewall", that horrific maelstrom of damaging wind madly encircling the Calm 'Eye of the Storm'.

Sustained Winds are Currently Forecast to be 80 MPH as it nears Oahu, with GUSTS to 100 MPH, which would then be Amplified even further, due to "Orographic Enhancement" with Oahu's low-slung Mountains, which would NOT act to diminish the storm but, as mentioned, further amplify it's winds.

Upper Atmospheric Steering Currents remain *very uncertain* this far out, so please: Let's all *Hope and Pray* that ANA's forecast track veers progressively towards the LEFT with each upcoming advisory, taking the Center of the Cyclone further and further away in it's "closest point of approach", as it skirts south of the Smaller Islands. Seriously: Honolulu does NOT need a Hurricane !!!


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Ana Heads Toward Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95344 - Wed Oct 15 2014 11:27 PM

Although the Discussion Bulletin is not yet out, the 16/03Z latest track guidance keeps Ana a little further offshore from the Hawaiian Islands - and as a tropical storm rather than a hurricane. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island of Hawaii.

The motion throughout the day has been due west and the expected turn to the west northwest has been delayed for yet another 12 hours with the northwest motion anticipated in about 24 hours. This suggests that the ridge to the north of Ana has been slower to pull back to the east. Although SSTs are in the 28.5 to 29C range, Ana has not increased in intensity and CPHC has delayed hurricane intensity until later on Thursday. If the newer track verifies, the Islands would probably be spared from hurricane force winds, but residents still need to maintain vigilence since any northward adjustment to the track could bring stronger winds into the Hawaiian Islands. Today the windshear did not relax over the system and the tropical storm appears to have weakened slightly.

Honolulu NWS Forecast for South Oahu
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 16 2014 07:30 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Ana Heads Toward Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95355 - Sat Oct 18 2014 12:28 AM

Ana has strengthened to a Cat I hurricane south of South Point on the Big Isle and movement has become northwesterly. This should keep Ana offshore from the Islands, however, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of the Main Hawaiian Islands because only a slight track adjustment to the right on Saturday would bring stronger winds into the Islands.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Hurricane Ana - South of Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95357 - Sat Oct 18 2014 11:31 AM

At 18/15Z, Hurricane Ana was located about 200 miles south of Honolulu with sustained winds of 70 knots gusting to 85 knots. Movement is to the northwest at 11 knots and a northwest to west northwest movement is forecast for the remainder of the weekend. With Ana remaining offshore, the primary threat to the Hawaiian Islands will be flooding - and dangerous surf along the southern and eastern shores of the Islands. Ana is likely to remain at hurricane strength as it passes south of the Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for all of the islands except the Big Isle of Hawaii. The size of the storm has increased - especially to the north - so heavy rainfall is likely.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Hurricane Ana - South of Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95359 - Mon Oct 20 2014 12:08 AM

As of 20/03Z, storm total rainfall in Honolulu was over 4.6 inches - and its still raining. Definately not C of C weather.
ED


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