F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 201 (Idalia) , Major: 201 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 201 (Idalia) Major: 201 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2015 Storm Forum

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2015
      #95383 - Thu Jan 01 2015 12:17 AM

SST trends, and even SST climatology, suggest about a 65% probability of at least a firm El Nino event during the heart of the Atlantic 2015 hurricane season. At this early stage, analog years are difficult to determine - perhaps something similar to the 1987 season (7/3/1). Sometimes a firm El Nino year (1953) can still produce an active Atlantic tropical cyclone season but those anomalies are rare. My current thoughts are to lean toward a season with lower than normal activity with an initial forecast of 8/5/1. With below normal SSTs forecast for the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea for the Spring and early Summer, an early start to the 2015 Atlantic season is not very likely. As the season approaches, feel free to add your own numbers in our annual attempt to quantify the numbers for the upcoming season. Rational for your forecast is not required and you can adjust your numbers as often as you wish until this thread closes on June 1st. At the end of the 2015 season we'll revisit our numbers and see how well we did (or didn't).
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95385 - Thu Jan 01 2015 09:00 PM

I've had this forecast planned out for a couple of years, focusing on the continuation of an overactive season in a year ending with a 5 that's been the trend lately. I'll either really be onto something or the worst projection ever on this site.


38/19/9


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: JoshuaK]
      #95386 - Fri Jan 02 2015 12:11 AM

My god! 38/19/9? New year's egg nog a bit heavy or profit? I think we're in a slower and slower period, so 8/2/1 but I've got a ½ year to amend.

I'm mostly curious to see us 20 Greek letters deep in the naming system. Happy 2015!

Quote:

I've had this forecast planned out for a couple of years, focusing on the continuation of an overactive season in a year ending with a 5 that's been the trend lately. I'll either really be onto something or the worst projection ever on this site.


38/19/9




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95387 - Fri Jan 02 2015 02:09 AM

The primary reason that we do this is to see who did the best job of guesstimating the seasonal activity in the Atlantic basin. Another reason is to see if we, as a group, can show any improvement in our average outlook for the season, i.e. have we learned anything (or not) over time - so with that second goal in mind, to avoid an unfair bias against the other participants, your numbers will not be used when the average of all inputs is finalized. However, your numbers will certainly be used in the individual scoring so your inputs will be evaluated with all of the other inputs when the season comes to an end. Note that nothing meteorologically suggests an all-time record number of storms for 2015 in the Atlantic basin.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95388 - Sat Jan 03 2015 11:32 PM

Well with a team average in mind I'll go ahead and drop the outlandish forecast and keep that one in my private log files for the end of the year and come up with something a little more reasoned.

After thinking on it a little while and looking over the past couple of years, I think the overall number of storms will stay low but the intensity of the storms may rise a little bit, with the exception of storms that briefly form, either close to land or in a briefly favorable environment before falling apart. Number of Major Hurricanes I'm stuck at between two and three but I'll go ahead and round up to three.

7/5/3.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: JoshuaK]
      #95390 - Mon Jan 26 2015 03:46 PM

6-2-1

Edited by B.C.Francis (Mon Jan 26 2015 03:55 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #95391 - Thu Feb 12 2015 09:04 AM

There have been several years in a row marked by systems that never really got their act together, with only a few exceptions. I'm going to go all 1995 on this year though, 19/11/5

The secondary calll for this year for "bonus points"" is if Florida sees a true landfalling hurricane this year. If not we get an even 10 years without one. (on 10/24) We may have an active year, but at this point I'll lean toward hitting the 10 year record. (which probably means watch out Florida)

Both predictions are 100% unscientific.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: MikeC]
      #95392 - Thu Feb 19 2015 02:09 AM

It is difficult to find a realistic analog year for the 2015 season. Right now, 1957 is the only season that remotely matches what 2015 could be like. Given the unique SST pattern (both current and forecast), the seasonal forecasts from the various agencies are probably going to have quite a range from very quiet to very busy. Its quite possible that Florida will indeed hit the 10 year record of no landfalling hurricanes.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95394 - Tue Mar 10 2015 01:37 AM

Since 1950 there have only been three years that had an El Nino event last for the entire year: 1953, 1969 and 1987. With an El Nino event about to verify (five straight months) there is a good possibility that 2015 could become the fourth year that this has happened since 1950. 1957 is no longer a viable analog year, but two of the active El Nino years, 1953 and 1969, are looking like possible analog years for this upcoming season. The other two are 1977 and 1991. With the exception of 1953 and 1969, no other year with a moderate El Nino has produced above normal tropical cyclone activity, however, 1958 did have an average number of storms (10/7/5), so about 25% of the time an El Nino season can still produce an active season in the Atlantic basin. The latest SST forecasts (issued 3/2/15) suggest that above normal SSTs will exist in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea for the entire 2015 Atlantic tropical cyclone season - so an early season storm is certainly possible this year - and that would also be true for a late season storm or two.

Current Analog Years
1977 6//5/1
1969 18/12/5
1991 8/4/2
1953 13/6/4

Average of the Analog Years is 11/7/3.

With a nudge from the 'potential' for a slightly busier season, I'll bump up my forecast to 9/6/2.

Remember, if you have already posted your forecast you can change it, if you wish, right up until the thread closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95396 - Sat Mar 14 2015 10:20 AM

11/6/2

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: M.A.]
      #95403 - Thu Apr 09 2015 03:51 PM

I will average the two (CSU/TSR) and post 9/4/2

I seem to recall an increase in precipitation along California coast In previous strong El-Nino years. For their sake lets hope so anyway...

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Apr 09 2015 03:52 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95404 - Wed Apr 15 2015 12:13 AM

1977 is starting to look like a strong analog year - so I'm going to drop my numbers back to my original forecast of 8/5/1.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 5670

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center