Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
FORECAST TRACK HAWAII: HURRICANE GUILLERMO
      #95518 - Wed Jul 29 2015 04:58 PM



A large and vigorous tropical low, Invest 91E, will likely become the next named storm in the E Pac this week.

Presently located near 8N 124W, Invest 91E appears to have the best chance of any system so far this year to cause considerable problems for Hawaii. Still a long way away, there is some discrepancy as to its initial and forecast strength, with models that identify a stronger low tending to recurve it northward prior to crossing Hawaii's latitude.


Title changed to reflect upgrade to named storm status.

Title change to reflect upgrade to hurricane status and official forecast track.

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 01 2015 04:37 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Hawaii Eyes Large Invest 91E [Re: cieldumort]
      #95519 - Wed Jul 29 2015 11:10 PM

Invest 91E has been officially designated as a Tropical Depression tonight, with winds of 35MPH. As the NHC notes in Nine's first advisory, this could be conservative.

The initial official NHC forecast calls for Nine to strengthen and become a hurricane on Friday. Later in the period, Nine is forecast to turn poleward and encounter decreasing SSTs and increasing westerly windshear, which should induce a weakening trend should Nine follow this track. The GFS and ECMWF prefer this poleward solution. Alternately, the Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, and NAV take Nine on a more westward trajectory, keeping the cyclone over much warmer waters longer, and ultimately placing the Hawaiin islands at greater risk.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Hawaii Watching TD Nine-E [Re: cieldumort]
      #95521 - Thu Jul 30 2015 02:30 PM

TD NINE-E has become Tropical Storm Guillermo, and the title of this thread will be updated to reflect this. The last time the name Guillermo was used, 2009, it did not get named until August 12th. 2009 Guillermo went on to become a powerful Category 3 hurricane.

Guillermo becomes the seventh named storm to form in the East Pac before July is even through this season. Even more impressive, Guillermo becomes the tenth named tropical cyclone when including the three that were named in the Central Pacific so far this year.

The most recent official NHC forecast calls for Guillermo to intensify into a hurricane, and then weaken a bit as it draws closer to the Hawaiin islands.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: FORECAST TRACK HAWAII: HURRICANE GUILLERMO [Re: cieldumort]
      #95524 - Sat Aug 01 2015 05:42 PM

Recon is being scheduled to fly missions into and around Guillermo over the next several days.

The current forecast for Hurricane Guillermo calls for weakening on approach to the Hawaiin islands, but this can be dangerously deceptive. The islands are mountainous, so even if the cyclone weakens as forecast below hurricane status at the surface, winds blowing through the island chain's hills and mountains may be stronger, even by as much as a category or two.

Of great concern throughout the islands, including the lowlands, is the potential for serious flooding. It may now be a good time to start taking preparations to protect life and property as a precautionary measure.


PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE GUILLERMO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76...(CALL SIGN AND TAKEOFF TIME CORRECTED)
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0109E GUILLERMO
C. 02/1400Z
D. 14.9N 143.4W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49...(NO CHANGES)
A. 03/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0209E GUILLERMO
C. 02/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 77...(CALL SIGN CORRECTED)
A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309E GUILLERMO
C. 03/0230Z
D. 15.8N 145.4W
E. 03/0430Z TO 03/0730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX MISSION FOR GUILLERMO AT 03/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 146.5W.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 04/0600Z NEAR 17.0N 148.0W.
C. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 04/0000Z.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 17 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 2631

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center