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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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vpbob21
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Strengthening TS Soudelor approaching Saipan
      #95525 - Sun Aug 02 2015 12:10 AM

At 02/0300Z Tropical Storm Soudelor was about 100 miles east of the island of Saipan in the Northern Marianas with winds of 70 mph moving at 285 degrees at about 17 mph. This one formed several days ago to the north of the Marshall Islands and has been slow to consolidate, but appears to be doing so just in time to cause significant problems for Saipan and Tinian. It looks like the storm will pass over or very close to Saipan around 02/1200Z and will likely be a solid cat 1 typhoon as it passes. Saipan and Tinian are under typhoon warnings and Rota has a tropical storm warning. It looks like Guam is largely going to miss this one except for some of the outer rainbands.

After Soudelor clears the Marianas it should move at a steady clip at about 290-295 degrees for about the next five days. After that the models become widely divergent with the CMC turning it north toward Japan, the ECMWF bringing it to the coast of China and then recurving it and the farther south GFS taking it across Taiwan and into southeast China. Stay tuned.


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: Strengthening TS Soudelor approaching Saipan [Re: vpbob21]
      #95534 - Tue Aug 04 2015 12:38 AM

At 04/0300Z Supertyphoon Soudelor was about 1255 miles ESE of Taipei with 155 kt sustained winds and moving at 290 degrees at 11 kts. Soudelor went from a 70 kt. TS to a 125 kt. typhoon in 24 hours. Then after a brief weakening due to an ERC it went from 105 kts to 155 kts today. Damage was severe on Saipan as the eye passed directly over the island. Reports are that it may take more than a month to restore power.

Still too early to make a call where Soudelor will make landfall but the ECMWF and GFS seem to be keying on central Taiwan while the JTWC forecast is a little farther north near the northern tip of Taiwan. Intensity is iffy but at least cat 3 appears likely by the time it reaches Taiwan in about 4 days.

Weather Conditions at Ishigakijima, Japan


Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 04 2015 12:50 PM)


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: Strengthening TS Soudelor approaching Saipan [Re: vpbob21]
      #95538 - Sat Aug 08 2015 12:19 AM

At 08/0300Z Typhoon Soudelor was about 90 miles east of Quanzhou, China or over the Taiwan Strait just off the west coast of Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds were 90 kts as of the 0300Z advisory although I suspect they have probably come down some since. Earlier Soudelor made landfall on Taiwan near Hualien with 105 kt winds. Most of the airports on Taiwan have reported wind gusts 80-100 mph although I think the main threat from Soudelor will be flooding. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the higher terrain sees up to 40 inches of rain. Soudelor will make a final landfall in a few hours in China near Quanzhou and slowly dissipate but not before dumping 10-20 inches of rain over a fairly wide area.

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