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Archives >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Atlantic Beginning to Wake Up
      #95547 - Sun Aug 16 2015 01:23 PM

The tropical Atlantic is showing signs of waking up after very little activity the past two months. Although shear and dry air are still mostly against development, we have several areas worth watching for the first time this month. Conditions are setting up to be more favorable for development, particularly in 7-10 days off the east coast. Long range model runs are also beginning to be much more active.



First the area in the far east Atlantic, being tracked a 96L has a 60% chance for development and model support . Those in the Eastern Caribbean will want to keep watch. It is doing quite well and could form into a depression within 24 to 48 hours.

Secondly a persistent (but sheared) wave north of Hispaniola is worth watching if it makes its way into the Gulf. This is the time of year things can change quickly, but no development is expected.

Finally the area in the Gulf that has persisted from the unusual cold fronts, again, not likely but highlights the general areas to watch.

We'll be watching all the Atlantic areas closely over the next few weeks.

Invest 96L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Edited by cieldumort (Mon Aug 17 2015 12:46 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Atlantic Beginning to Wake Up [Re: MikeC]
      #95550 - Mon Aug 17 2015 03:58 AM

Almost like someone has flipped a switch over the weekend. Some of the most noteworthy changes include a significant wave train now rolling off of Africa, of which 96L is leading the way, coinciding with a decent increase in overall water vapor throughout the basin.





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doug
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Atlantic Beginning to Wake Up [Re: MikeC]
      #95553 - Mon Aug 17 2015 02:08 PM

GFS picks up on some organization of this in a few days...the Euro, not so much...we are all waiting for something.

I can't recall from personal experience, which is the only source I have, whether this year, which is to feature a deepening El Nino, has been typical for El Nino's in terms of precipitation in Florida? The notion of numerous stalled low pressure systems (fronts) and the resulting instability increasing amount and intensity of rain is unusual. IMO

Based on folklore which bases the odds of a land falling tropical system on the amount of rain falling well in advance of the system (which may make sense in light of weather patterns which can persist) the west central coast of Florida would be a probable target...

$.02 please

--------------------
doug


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Steve H1
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Re: Atlantic Beginning to Wake Up [Re: doug]
      #95554 - Mon Aug 17 2015 04:11 PM

Euro at 12Z has a small tightly wound hurricane heading toward Hispaniola. Other models seem to be chiming in. Way too early too speculate, but 96L seems to be holding together well.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Atlantic Beginning to Wake Up [Re: Steve H1]
      #95556 - Mon Aug 17 2015 08:09 PM

I've got a running log of model runs in the forecast lounge (link here)

But to follow up yes, that's unusual for the Euro, it hardly ever does well with the smaller storms, so I'm really curious how it picked that up or if its just a small scale rounding error. Either way, a system with that pressure on a Euro run is a borderline major hurricane. I think the Euro is out to lunch there.

But if other models join in and this persists. Yeah 96L is one to watch, least we have a good week to do so (for the Caribbean).


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Atlantic Beginning to Wake Up [Re: MikeC]
      #95565 - Tue Aug 18 2015 09:08 AM

96L is very likely a depression now, I'd expect an upgrade soon, later this morning or afternoon.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Atlantic Beginning to Wake Up [Re: MikeC]
      #95566 - Tue Aug 18 2015 10:06 AM

ACSAT Scatterometer is now showing a decent circulation, TD likely at 11.

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