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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2015 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - Kilo SE of Hawaii
      #95567 - Tue Aug 18 2015 10:08 AM

At 18/12Z, Invest 93C was located at 7.8N 149.5W or about 870 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with winds of 20 knots and a central pressure of 1007MB. SSTs are 30C and system is currently stationary but the UKMET projects that a slow movement to the northwest is likely over the next few days. CPHC gives the system a 50% chance for additional development over the next couple of days. The GFS and its associated GFDL indicate that if the system develops it could pose a threat to the Hawaiian Islands on the 23rd. The next name on the C-PAC list is Kilo. Residents of Hawaii should closely monitor 93C this week.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center
ED

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 21 2015 01:30 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Invest 93C Southeast of Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95607 - Thu Aug 20 2015 12:12 PM

I think that this is probably the first time that I have tagged an Invest as an Area of Concern, but this one is worthy of that designation. At 20/15Z, Invest 93C was located near 10N 149W or about 1000 miles to the southeast of Honolulu, Oahu, Hawaii. Best Track data at 12Z had the storm moving to the west northwest at 6 knots although the speed looks like it has increased slightly since then. Winds are at 25 knots with a central pressure of 1006MB. CPHC now indicates an 80% probability for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

The 06Z GFS and GFDL bring the storm (next name is Kilo) over the island of Niihau on the 26th as a Cat IV Hurricane (120kts). The 06Z TVCN (Consensus) brings the storrm between Oahu and Kauai on the 25th while the 06Z HWRF brings a Cat I (80kts) Hurricane near or over Oahu on the 25th. Residents of the Hawaiian Islands are urged to closely monitor the development and future track of this system.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - TD Kilo Southwest of Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95654 - Sun Aug 23 2015 11:45 PM

Tropical Depression Kilo has taken so long to organize that the tropical cyclone is no longer a significant threat to the major Hawaiian Islands. Kilo is now located well to the southwest of the Islands and, while it is expected to intensify over the next few days, the system will move north and then northwest rather than northeast - the trough to the north will have moved to the east and a ridge will establish itself to the north of Hawaii and force the storm away from the major islands in the Hawaiian chain.
ED


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