scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
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GFS over the past few years has had a hard time keeping a very small Atlantic system Recognized. I think this 1 is included. It will always show a weaker system after the first 12-24hrs unless the system grows in size. I do think Shear will be a problem by Sunday thus weakening this...but question will be...decoupling? or just keeping the system in check before land (if there is) interaction with PR and DR.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Think Danny will be walking a fine line after day 2. Although latest Visible imagery suggests that his envelope is expanding, and a bigger system will stand a better chance of not decoupling, especially if he can manage to stay just north of the islands. Ridge should build in after 97L moves north. Don't know if the trough in the eastern US will be moving out as (if) Danny gets closer.
Edited: should be Not decoupling and trough moving out, not in
Edited by Steve H1 (Thu Aug 20 2015 04:05 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Historically models have a hard time with very small hurricanes.
This was a problem in 2001 with Iris.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/dis/al112001.discus.013.html
Just one example.d
Most models have problems with such small systems. Perhaps one is better than others and would like to know..if so.
Can't wait to get dropsondes in and data back for better reliable model runs.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 344
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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It is going to be a rough ride for Danny after he passes the Leewards. Sheer and potential interaction with PR will be tough to overcome.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Suppose in the end it depends on which track he takes.
Through the islands or clipping PR on the NE side?
Intensity affects everything and not sure they have the intensity forecast down pat.
Tonight it appears Danny is growing in size some.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif
I like to be able to see all the various players on the larger loop. Floaters are wonderful, but sometimes we miss suble changes.
Will know when recon gets there.
This loop shows a larger Danny
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ft.html
Not a lot larger but it's a process I think. Possibly bulking up before the islands?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1667
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
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While a (somewhat) larger Danny might be able to influence his immediate environment a touch more, an increase of wind field could also increase the odds that the cyclone bumps into and ingests the very dry air that surrounds the small cocoon of moisture the presently still small TC has been benefiting from.
Threading the needle, so to speak. Danny is a very small hurricane by global standards, and intensity changes both up and down could be rapid, with any downward intensity changes also possibly fatal, given the synoptic environment.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The NOAA P-3 aircraft will be leaving around 10am EDT with some ocean based surveys and then a fly through of Danny in the afternoon.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Looks like a last minute decision to head towards Danny first was made for Recon.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
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I think Danny peaked around 115-125mph this morning. Sat estimates are usually under done by 5% and given such a small size..a even hard reading would of been possible. By time recons head out there, Danny will be Dir Min and shear will start to pick up some tonight.So it's too bad they weren't there early this morning when I think he peaked out. I will note that that shear 15-20kts will hamper Danny but not tear him apart. I think the shear will decrease some to 12-15kts as the moves out...but then a very dry pocket is in his way around 53W-60W and 16N-19N...directly in his path thus weakening him down to a TS by later Saturday afternoon or by Sunday. Like the said...Land interaction will be the next faze. Will he go thru D Rep, or just north of it by Tuesday. We have time to see..and any talk of the U.S. right now can be put on hold till Monday to see how Danny is and what conditions will look like by next weekend.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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TropicalAtlantic is showing P3 radar updates if you have google earth installed.
Radar image link (Req. Google earth) http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon....ar&latest=1
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Recon's first brush Pressure ~968mb but not if that's the lowest.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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111knots, Danny's a cat 3.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1667
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
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It does appear that Danny probably did max out within the past few hours somewhere in the 115-135MPH range*, within a very tight core, à la Marco (2008). Recon is finding some very stout winds and much lower pressure than has been estimated, despite the fact that the cyclone appears to be interacting some with the increasing shear.
What lies ahead for Danny could be very challenging for the microcane. The research mission flying in and around it has been finding dewpoint depressions on the order of 70 degrees. With increasing shear ahead, it looks supremely difficult for the cyclone not to begin ingesting this phenomenally dry air, and rapid weakening could ensue.
* And arguably on the high end of that range, for as Mike just mentioned above, recon has found 111 knots at flight level (12k ft), which would normally translate to around 100 knots +/- at the surface.
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 21 2015 12:50 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Vortex message, highlights 965mb presure and the 111knot flight level winds. I'd expect the to issue a special update.
URNT12 KWBC 211655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 949
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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The shearer is just ahead and on sat. is visible at about 55W.
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doug
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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After getting clobbered on Saturday, Tropical Storm Danny seems to be more robust than I thought that it would be with convection now refiring over the center again this evening.
ED
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 304
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
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Quote:
After getting clobbered on Saturday, Tropical Storm Danny seems to be more robust than I thought that it would be with convection now refiring over the center again this evening.
ED
Feeling the same way. Danny looked pretty bad yesterday. I am noticing in one of the loops this morning Danny seems to be having some effect on the shear environment near him. If you watch the attached loop closely the high cirrus clouds, in the lower left corner of the image ahead of Danny, embedded in the upper level flow seem to be having their direction altered from the NE to the NNE and affecting the shear environment above as Danny approaches (to some extent that I can't quantify). I heard this explained in an earlier video blog by Levi Cowan,at Tropical Tidbits, but he expected this type of interaction with a stronger storm. This could explain why Danny is refiring even though the LOC is still partially exposed. Obviously this link is time sensitive and may not reflect what I am talking about in a couple of hours. SSD RBtop loop
Edited by craigm (Sun Aug 23 2015 07:39 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Added radar recording of Antilles radar for danny at flhurricane Antilles Radar Recording of Danny approach
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Added another radar recording of an Eastern Caribbean radar composite for Danny at flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Danny approach
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