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Archives 2010s >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95711 - Wed Aug 26 2015 05:03 PM

Quote:

Recon is having a hard time finding Tropical Storm force winds this afternoon. Erika is a bit weaker.




If this system didn't already have a name, it certainly would not be given one at this point. The NHC is just holding onto the name as long as they can for continuity and so people don't let their guard down.


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cieldumort
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: cieldumort]
      #95713 - Wed Aug 26 2015 05:29 PM

The more poleward track is curious, given that the center is largely exposed. However, the cyclone is not altogether shallow, being that a chunk of convection exists to the southeast. Given this, steering currents in the near term may be redirecting Erika away from the most inverse conditions, and it is possible that Erika is entering another round of intensification.

Recon is finding the exposed LLC heading north-northwest over the course of the past several passes, with decreasing minimum pressure (down to 1006mb from 1008) and increasing maximum sustained winds (up to 39MPH from 27MPH.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 346
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: cieldumort]
      #95714 - Wed Aug 26 2015 07:51 PM

Impressive convective outburst starting at around 2115 UTC through the last frame at this point, which is 2315 UTC. Impressive given the LLC is quite a bit off to the northwest too. Of course, this is a diurnal pulse and one should not judge true increasing intensification from a diurnal pulse.

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95717 - Wed Aug 26 2015 09:53 PM

The blowup is impressive, but it won't do any good if it's not over the surface center.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95718 - Wed Aug 26 2015 10:29 PM

Mike ..Do we have the radar loop yet going?


NVM I found it


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Bloodstar
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: scottsvb]
      #95724 - Thu Aug 27 2015 01:12 AM

Morning everyone, I'm not particularly confident with Erika, but I do believe we might have a momentary relaxing of shear. There appears to be anti cyclonic outflow, particularly in the northern semi circle.

Most of the major convection remains to the south and east of the LLC, but the amount of convection appears to be much stronger and according to MIMIC, it looks like there could be a strong feeder band in the South East Quadrant.

Mind you, this could all be short term and by morning Erika could be all kaput, but I believe we're having a second convective blowup much closer to the city center. So we will see.

If I were along the south east Atlantic coast, I would keep a wary eye on Erika.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Bloodstar]
      #95733 - Thu Aug 27 2015 09:16 AM

Recon's new center fix is well south of the forecast track, which possibly means a dramatic left shift in the 11AM Advisory. And comes closer to possible interaction with Hispaniola/PR which could cause Erika to completely fall apart like Danny However, Erika is a much larger system than Danny, so it has a much better chance to survive interaction with shear than it did.

Either way, the uncertainty in the future of Erika is at an all time high this morning.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95736 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:03 AM

It's difficult to find a center looking at satellite this morning, although there is obviously some outflow visible on the north and eastern sides. I think center reformation isn't done yet here.

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95737 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:26 AM

Seems to be a center of circulation about midway between Guadeloupe and Martinique or maybe forming right over Guadeloupe. It would still be south of the predicted track but not terribly far off....am I seeing that right?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95739 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:48 AM

A vort has emerged on the visible loop at 16.5/63.2. It won't be easy for this system to make it another few days.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95740 - Thu Aug 27 2015 11:15 AM

11AM forecast track has a discussion which Pasch states as "Unusually Uncertain" because of the complexities of a reforming Erika, potential land interaction, and model flip flopping. It reads like they punted on the forecast track until they can regroup with new data. Still nothing certain here, it could likely keep shifting west.

The current NHC forcast has Erika crawling painfully slowly just off the east Florida coast.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95742 - Thu Aug 27 2015 11:36 AM

Videos of Dominica Flooding from Erika:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO0fm2OsI8c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVYUVf4XfC0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MD4YjvUwds


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95748 - Thu Aug 27 2015 12:56 PM

If it stays on an eastward track and the center was to stay along or south of 17 north, could it avoid problems with the mountains of Hispanola or would they still kill the inflow or outflow?
EDIT: There also appears to be a bit of north/south wobbling going on. If so that can swing the models back and forth a bit as the center of circulation rotates under the convection....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3

Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Thu Aug 27 2015 01:00 PM)


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doug
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95750 - Thu Aug 27 2015 01:24 PM

Based on the condition of this system I think the models have no answer...the forecast admits as much. It is "pure opinion" without any reliable data.

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: doug]
      #95751 - Thu Aug 27 2015 01:30 PM

Everything will be based on land interaction with Hispaniola... I think the GFS is correc up to 72hrs. Then comes , how strong can Erika get (if still together after DR). Will she get strong enough to Erode the ridge to pull more N or will the ridge be strong enough or will she be a TS and move more NW by days 4 and 5. Hard to tell really.

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: scottsvb]
      #95754 - Thu Aug 27 2015 03:56 PM

The surface vort that shot west out from under the cirrus canopy this morning slammed on the brakes and has drifted north the last couple hours. Meanwhile, more deep convection has blown up on the east side of the center and is actually partially over the center now. It'll be interesting to see what happens later today and tonight.

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 962
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95755 - Thu Aug 27 2015 04:11 PM

Interesting observation. I would place it at about 16.7/63.5 which is consistent with your observation and no westward motion. That has allowed some of the convection east and south of the vortex to catch up so this might be part of the regeneration process...there seemed to be more convection circling the vortex before it clouded over which is indicative of organization in progress.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95756 - Thu Aug 27 2015 04:40 PM

Convective burst, including the north side, which hasn't been seen in Erika before now, are starting to happen, which may give Puerto Rico a lot of rain (They need it, but not to levels Dominica saw earlier this morning)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95758 - Thu Aug 27 2015 04:52 PM

5pm track clips West Palm Beach and rides Erika close enough to the east coast for the eyewall to be on shore along parts of it. It's a bad setup for beach erosion if it were to verify. However, I suspect it'll shift more, especially once it crosses the islands.


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JMII
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Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95761 - Thu Aug 27 2015 05:47 PM

Quote:

However, I suspect it'll shift more, especially once it crosses the islands.




Good call. Once it crosses the islands I'll start to really pay attention. Because that's the critical phase, by then she will either be very weak from encounters / battle over shear and the mountains, or it will be on track and might get her act together. Erika has been tracking steady west for awhile now despite the forecast expecting some slight N motion. Thus I thought the 8AM cone was a bit too east given the current state of affairs while this new 5PM cone seems aligned well to what is really happening. Soon she will be showing herself on radar out of PR which will give us a better picture.

Now once the track starts to prove out the next phase of concern will be strength since that is harder to predict and we've seen model data that is all over the place which speaks to the uncertainty with this system.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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