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Archives 2010s >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
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A Very Weak Erika Still in the Caribbean?
      #95663 - Mon Aug 24 2015 10:46 PM

8 AM EDT 29 Aug 2015 Update
NHC 8AM Advisory updates with comments that suggest Erika may be dissipating now. With a large split in the energy and an uncertain center, (may be more of an trough now) the system could have its last advisory at 11AM. On the flip side recon is still finding decent SMFR winds and just barely started to investigate the system.

The official center is now north of the island to match the circulation visible on satellite, which would shift the "cone" east again if it were to maintain itself.

Hopefully the end of Erika is near, and Hispaniola has claimed another system. Unfortunately this also means extreme flooding in Haiti.

7 AM EDT 29 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is officially still in the Caribbean this morning, with the highly uncertain official center south of the eastern tip of Cuba. It remains a highly unorganized tropical system, fairly weak now and may weaken to a depression later.

On the current forecast track no watches will likely be issued for south Florida, but there may still be some rain along the west coast with that track.

Recon is on their way this morning to attempt to find a better center fix, as the current one may be suspect.
The forecast track remains highly uncertain.

99L is now being tracked, and it may affect the Cape Verde islands directly.

10 years ago this morning, Hurricane Katrina made landfall near Buras, LA.

5:30AM EDT 28 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is barely recognizable as a tropical cyclone this morning, and may devolve into an open wave at some point today. Despite this, a large area of 40 to 50MPH winds exists at the surface to the east and southeast of the alleged center, and flooding rains are occurring over the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for:.
* Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic * Haiti* Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
* Northwestern Bahamas

8:30AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the Central Southeastern Bahamas (Turks and Caicos) as well as more portions otf the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Central Bahamas

Erika is moving generally west tonight as recon is out there sampling Erika. It is expected to move more towards the west northwest soon. It may cross portions of the Dominican Republic.

The forecast track still takes it very close or over parts of Florida after crossing the Bahamas, but there remains a large degree of uncertainty i n the track and intensity of Erika at that time. Watches may be issues for portions of Florida Tomorrow night if the track holds.

11AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
11AM forecast track has a discussion which Pasch states as "Unusually Uncertain" because of the complexities of a reforming Erika, potential land interaction, and model flip flopping. It reads like they punted on the forecast track until they can regroup with new data. Still nothing certain here, it could likely keep shifting west.

The current NHC forcast has Erika crawling painfully slowly just off the east Florida coast.


9AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Erika remains weak this morning, and recon has found the center reformed to the south a bit, which will likely greatly change the forecast track to the west, and may force it over Hispaniola, which could weaken or dissipate the system. Expect the forecast cone to move left at 11AM.

Erika currently is bringing flooded rains to the island of Dominica.

4PM EDT 26 Aug 2015 Update



Like Danny before her, Erika is running into progressively greater directional shear as she gets closer to the Leewards, with the low level center now essentially void of deep convection, which has been displaced to the south and east. This shunting of the CDO has now allowed the dry air surrounding her to begin working in, and recon is finding the cyclone in a weakened state.

Despite the exposed center, lower winds, and higher minimum pressure, Erika is still tracking west-northwesterly. On this course the cyclone, or what is left of it should shear take more of a toll, could avoid the tallest terrain of the islands, but possibly not the regions of greatest shear ahead.

6AM EDT 26 Aug 2015 Update



New Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the British Virgin Islands.

WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT:
Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.



Deep convection flared up with Erika overnight, and the cyclone appears to be entering an intensification phase, with the most recent satellite images showing very deep convection atop the estimated center of circulation. Given current trends, model runs depicting a stronger, more resilient Erika should be looked at closely.

In addition to Erika, once again the Hawaiian Islands are eyeing yet another potential impact from a tropical cyclone during that basin's extraordinarily active season. More on this latest threat in the Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Lounge

Not a time to panic yet, but those along the east coast of Florida, particularly South Florida, should take care of any loose ends in the hurricane plan before any potential rush.

11 PM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Erika is holding as a minimal Tropical Storm, the convection mostly sheared off south of the center still. The NHC currently forecasts a Hurricane over the Bahamas in 5 days, but with the caveat of a high degree of uncertainty of track and strength. Lixion Avila, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center, mentions that Erika could even dissipate while over the northeastern Caribbean. Any real chance to strengthen depends on if it survives and makes it near the Bahamas.



That said, within the last hour a significant burst of convection has shown up on satellite near or just west of the center.

5 PM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is holding as a tropical Storm. The 5PM forecast track forecasts Erika to be a hurricane Sunday afternoon over Grand Bahama west of Nassau. The forecast is highly uncertain, with much disparity in the models.

This does, however, put parts of south Florida in the cone.

11:00 AM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Strom Watches now up Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

7:30 AM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Those in the northeast Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida and the Southeast United States should closely monitor the progression of Erika.

The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Erika to be a hurricane and crossing over the Bahamas this weekend after scraping near or over the Northeastern Leewards Thursday.

This places it in a position to potentially recurve or hit Florida (or elsewhere in the southeast) next week as a hurricane (possibly Major), so it will be very important to keep watch over this system as there are lots of uncertainties with the future track of Erika. A lot will depend on how strong, and when Erika gets.

Erika's appearance is weaker today, and has an exposed center of circulation, conditions generally will be unfavorable for the next few days before it reaches better conditions. it is forecast to reach hurricane intensity on Saturday.

Tropical Storm watches for the islands are up : Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla,
Saba, St. Eustatius



Parts of the Bahamas may have hurricane watches up later in the week.

Original Update


Invest 98L, the large and vigorous tropical wave following on the heels of Danny, has been determined to have developed sufficient organization for the NHC to begin advisories on our fifth tropical cyclone of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As 05L already has had winds at or above the 40MPH threshold today, the first advisory reflects this as well, and we are now tracking Tropical Storm Erika.

Erika is forecast to gradually intensify while tracking west-northwest, and begin feeling a pull more to the northwest later in the period.



In addition to Tropical Storm Erika, we are still keeping an eye on Danny's remnants for any signs that it may try to reorganize, but the odds are not in his favor, and the remnant low is most likely just bringing much needed rain showers and a few storms to the northern Caribbean, which has been suffering through a drought.

Out in Hawaii, Kilo is still weak and tracking generally well west of earlier forecasts, with the risk of a direct impact on the main islands continuing to decline.

Erika Links

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach


flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach

Erika Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Erika - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erika


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erika (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erika (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erika

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erika
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erika -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -



Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 29 2015 08:00 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #95667 - Tue Aug 25 2015 09:16 AM

Erika is looking very weak this morning, and struggling, however Erika's model runs are interesting, and splitting the difference brings up the chances for Florida/SE See the Erika lounge for speculation. If it continues moving west into the shear it would likely meet the same fate as Danny.

Recon is heading out there later today. Erika may remain weak over the next few days before entering into better conditions if the NHC track holds.


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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95668 - Tue Aug 25 2015 10:31 AM

A Weak Erika will follow more of the Trop flow in the atmosphere...more W via the CMC,GFS and NGX models. Shear to her North and midlevel dry air is suppresing T-Storm development. We'll see what happens tonight (Tuesday)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #95669 - Tue Aug 25 2015 10:52 AM

Tropical Strom Watches are now up Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

They are waiting for recon to adjust intensity.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95670 - Tue Aug 25 2015 11:15 AM

The advanced Scatterometer satellite (ASCAT) pass that just happened still shows a closed circulation in Erika, so the 11AM advisory holding at TS is still good.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95672 - Tue Aug 25 2015 03:27 PM

Erika is still racing along westward, convection is being blown off to the south (center is actually a bit north of the actual convection) The NHC's track seems pretty good right now, although a few days out the model disparity (and flip flopping) is a big sign that the track may slow or adjust later in the cycle. Big risk that Erika may stall out.

Recon did confirm a closed circulation, although the west side is VERY weak.



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Steve H1
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95673 - Tue Aug 25 2015 03:47 PM

Yeah, the Euro and the GFS going from a deep hurricane to nothing in just one run doesn't say much for consistency. It should get hammered out in the next couple of days. Erika seems to be pulling back together quite nicely this afternoon.

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craigm
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: Steve H1]
      #95676 - Tue Aug 25 2015 08:17 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED...

This info ingested in the models may keep Erika in or southwest of the Bahamas in a few days. Re-curve odds dwindling as of now.
Should have added some reasoning - weaker system is controlled by low level steering

Edited by craigm (Tue Aug 25 2015 08:31 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: craigm]
      #95683 - Wed Aug 26 2015 12:32 AM

The convective burst tonight, if it holds, co9uld lead to a slightly stronger Erika in the morning. Worth checking back in tomorrow morning for that.

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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95684 - Wed Aug 26 2015 01:14 AM

Right now it's still on the south side of the LLC. I would like to see the north side of Erika develop some bursts

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: scottsvb]
      #95689 - Wed Aug 26 2015 06:21 AM

The difference in size and convective bursts between 0245 UTC and 0545 UTC are impressive. Is it possible that the center is actually south of where it is predicted to be?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95694 - Wed Aug 26 2015 07:18 AM

Not a time to panic yet, but those along the east coast of Florida, particularly South Florida, should take care of any lose ends in the hurricane plan before any potential rush.

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craigm
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95695 - Wed Aug 26 2015 08:06 AM

Quote:

The difference in size and convective bursts between 0245 UTC and 0545 UTC are impressive. Is it possible that the center is actually south of where it is predicted to be?



Erika is not lined up vertically and is actually tilted to the southwest.sheared exactly opposite to what Danny was experiencing. You can pick it up best on the RGB loop although the latest burst of CDO is starting to fill in on the Northern half of the storm. NHC track looks spot on.

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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: craigm]
      #95697 - Wed Aug 26 2015 09:58 AM

There may be a more impressive blob this morning, but it remains south/southeast of the surface center. So far recon has not found any pressure drop. Until it becomes more aligned vertically, it won't do much. It doesn't need to do anything but hold its own for a couple days, though. If it can emerge just north of Hispaniola with an intact circulation then it can be a problem.

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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95698 - Wed Aug 26 2015 10:46 AM

Agreed and that's the key. Right now it's about getting slightly better organized and gaining latitude we need to see. If it only goes .2N every 6hrs...it will run into PR and DR

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: scottsvb]
      #95699 - Wed Aug 26 2015 11:21 AM

If anyone is looking for movement in the satellite imagery, make sure to realize the center of Erika is still exposed to the northwest edge of most of the heavy convection. The NHC's track in the near term looks good. I don't think it'll go over Hispaniola.

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craigm
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95701 - Wed Aug 26 2015 12:01 PM Attachment (285 downloads)

Quote:

If anyone is looking for movement in the satellite imagery, make sure to realize the center of Erika is still exposed to the northwest edge of most of the heavy convection. The NHC's track in the near term looks good. I don't think it'll go over Hispaniola.



Agreeing with Mike. This 85GHz DMSP F-18 satellite image (attached) clearly shows the center of Erika to the NW of the large convective burst. Image was around 8 AM this morning.

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Why I'm here:
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Edited by craigm (Wed Aug 26 2015 12:21 PM)


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ralphfla
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: craigm]
      #95702 - Wed Aug 26 2015 12:33 PM

I think what some are saying is no matter where the center is which is right now 16.2 if it just keeps going up .2 each 6 hours like it has been doing then it will run into land like PR etc. I think Scott and the rest are not saying the center is in the convection but rather that the system needs to gain more then .2 soon or it will run the risk of land.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: ralphfla]
      #95707 - Wed Aug 26 2015 04:05 PM

Recon is having a hard time finding Tropical Storm force winds this afternoon. Erika is a bit weaker.

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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95709 - Wed Aug 26 2015 04:38 PM

The LLC remains exposed near 16.7 and 58.8 badly sheared...can it survive? I have doubts.

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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #95711 - Wed Aug 26 2015 05:03 PM

Quote:

Recon is having a hard time finding Tropical Storm force winds this afternoon. Erika is a bit weaker.




If this system didn't already have a name, it certainly would not be given one at this point. The NHC is just holding onto the name as long as they can for continuity and so people don't let their guard down.


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cieldumort
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: cieldumort]
      #95713 - Wed Aug 26 2015 05:29 PM

The more poleward track is curious, given that the center is largely exposed. However, the cyclone is not altogether shallow, being that a chunk of convection exists to the southeast. Given this, steering currents in the near term may be redirecting Erika away from the most inverse conditions, and it is possible that Erika is entering another round of intensification.

Recon is finding the exposed LLC heading north-northwest over the course of the past several passes, with decreasing minimum pressure (down to 1006mb from 1008) and increasing maximum sustained winds (up to 39MPH from 27MPH.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: cieldumort]
      #95714 - Wed Aug 26 2015 07:51 PM

Impressive convective outburst starting at around 2115 UTC through the last frame at this point, which is 2315 UTC. Impressive given the LLC is quite a bit off to the northwest too. Of course, this is a diurnal pulse and one should not judge true increasing intensification from a diurnal pulse.

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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95717 - Wed Aug 26 2015 09:53 PM

The blowup is impressive, but it won't do any good if it's not over the surface center.

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scottsvb
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95718 - Wed Aug 26 2015 10:29 PM

Mike ..Do we have the radar loop yet going?


NVM I found it


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Bloodstar
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: scottsvb]
      #95724 - Thu Aug 27 2015 01:12 AM

Morning everyone, I'm not particularly confident with Erika, but I do believe we might have a momentary relaxing of shear. There appears to be anti cyclonic outflow, particularly in the northern semi circle.

Most of the major convection remains to the south and east of the LLC, but the amount of convection appears to be much stronger and according to MIMIC, it looks like there could be a strong feeder band in the South East Quadrant.

Mind you, this could all be short term and by morning Erika could be all kaput, but I believe we're having a second convective blowup much closer to the city center. So we will see.

If I were along the south east Atlantic coast, I would keep a wary eye on Erika.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Bloodstar]
      #95733 - Thu Aug 27 2015 09:16 AM

Recon's new center fix is well south of the forecast track, which possibly means a dramatic left shift in the 11AM Advisory. And comes closer to possible interaction with Hispaniola/PR which could cause Erika to completely fall apart like Danny However, Erika is a much larger system than Danny, so it has a much better chance to survive interaction with shear than it did.

Either way, the uncertainty in the future of Erika is at an all time high this morning.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95736 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:03 AM

It's difficult to find a center looking at satellite this morning, although there is obviously some outflow visible on the north and eastern sides. I think center reformation isn't done yet here.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95737 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:26 AM

Seems to be a center of circulation about midway between Guadeloupe and Martinique or maybe forming right over Guadeloupe. It would still be south of the predicted track but not terribly far off....am I seeing that right?

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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95739 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:48 AM

A vort has emerged on the visible loop at 16.5/63.2. It won't be easy for this system to make it another few days.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95740 - Thu Aug 27 2015 11:15 AM

11AM forecast track has a discussion which Pasch states as "Unusually Uncertain" because of the complexities of a reforming Erika, potential land interaction, and model flip flopping. It reads like they punted on the forecast track until they can regroup with new data. Still nothing certain here, it could likely keep shifting west.

The current NHC forcast has Erika crawling painfully slowly just off the east Florida coast.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95742 - Thu Aug 27 2015 11:36 AM

Videos of Dominica Flooding from Erika:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO0fm2OsI8c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVYUVf4XfC0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MD4YjvUwds


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95748 - Thu Aug 27 2015 12:56 PM

If it stays on an eastward track and the center was to stay along or south of 17 north, could it avoid problems with the mountains of Hispanola or would they still kill the inflow or outflow?
EDIT: There also appears to be a bit of north/south wobbling going on. If so that can swing the models back and forth a bit as the center of circulation rotates under the convection....

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Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Thu Aug 27 2015 01:00 PM)


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doug
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95750 - Thu Aug 27 2015 01:24 PM

Based on the condition of this system I think the models have no answer...the forecast admits as much. It is "pure opinion" without any reliable data.

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scottsvb
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: doug]
      #95751 - Thu Aug 27 2015 01:30 PM

Everything will be based on land interaction with Hispaniola... I think the GFS is correc up to 72hrs. Then comes , how strong can Erika get (if still together after DR). Will she get strong enough to Erode the ridge to pull more N or will the ridge be strong enough or will she be a TS and move more NW by days 4 and 5. Hard to tell really.

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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: scottsvb]
      #95754 - Thu Aug 27 2015 03:56 PM

The surface vort that shot west out from under the cirrus canopy this morning slammed on the brakes and has drifted north the last couple hours. Meanwhile, more deep convection has blown up on the east side of the center and is actually partially over the center now. It'll be interesting to see what happens later today and tonight.

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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95755 - Thu Aug 27 2015 04:11 PM

Interesting observation. I would place it at about 16.7/63.5 which is consistent with your observation and no westward motion. That has allowed some of the convection east and south of the vortex to catch up so this might be part of the regeneration process...there seemed to be more convection circling the vortex before it clouded over which is indicative of organization in progress.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95756 - Thu Aug 27 2015 04:40 PM

Convective burst, including the north side, which hasn't been seen in Erika before now, are starting to happen, which may give Puerto Rico a lot of rain (They need it, but not to levels Dominica saw earlier this morning)

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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95758 - Thu Aug 27 2015 04:52 PM

5pm track clips West Palm Beach and rides Erika close enough to the east coast for the eyewall to be on shore along parts of it. It's a bad setup for beach erosion if it were to verify. However, I suspect it'll shift more, especially once it crosses the islands.


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JMII
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95761 - Thu Aug 27 2015 05:47 PM

Quote:

However, I suspect it'll shift more, especially once it crosses the islands.




Good call. Once it crosses the islands I'll start to really pay attention. Because that's the critical phase, by then she will either be very weak from encounters / battle over shear and the mountains, or it will be on track and might get her act together. Erika has been tracking steady west for awhile now despite the forecast expecting some slight N motion. Thus I thought the 8AM cone was a bit too east given the current state of affairs while this new 5PM cone seems aligned well to what is really happening. Soon she will be showing herself on radar out of PR which will give us a better picture.

Now once the track starts to prove out the next phase of concern will be strength since that is harder to predict and we've seen model data that is all over the place which speaks to the uncertainty with this system.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: JMII]
      #95772 - Thu Aug 27 2015 09:20 PM

added
flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach

Still active (for now)

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach




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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95774 - Thu Aug 27 2015 09:41 PM

Interesting observations now. Are thee two vortex centers? One near St. Croix and another where recon generally is (last fix)?

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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95775 - Thu Aug 27 2015 09:48 PM

Recon is struggling to close off a center. It seems to be a broad, weak circulation. There is one obvious vort/eddy approaching the southeastern tip of Puerto Rico, but that's not the vort we saw earlier today. The first recon pass this evening shows one little calm spot southwest of St. Kitts, which is where the earlier vort was located. Erika is still a mess.

Update: Recon has finally found some light nw wind well south of PR.


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ralphfla
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95776 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:08 PM

If this storm never got a name it would remain nameless right now. Only because they do not want to drop the name then have to maybe add it again are they keeping it as a storm.

Edited by ralphfla (Thu Aug 27 2015 10:08 PM)


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Doombot!
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #95777 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:08 PM

Wow, on the PR loop, there is clearly a circulation moving just south of the island.

This is got to be sticky for the NHC because there's clearly a closed circulation somewhere, but there seems to be another one (or even two) hiding out there as well. My worry is that 1 will pass over Hispaniola and the other will bypass to the north or south. One will survive, the others don't, but in any event something will survive to organize.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Doombot!]
      #95778 - Thu Aug 27 2015 10:16 PM

It's a mess right now, that's for sure. Multiple centers. Extremely tough forecast.

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berrywr
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Doombot!]
      #95780 - Thu Aug 27 2015 11:11 PM

I was just looking at that and then going back to satellite and looking at it again; it's not Erika. Earlier today on the Weather Channel they had Dan Leonard from WSI on there, he's a models expert, but the ensemble was talking about multiple vortices and I said this two days ago and again last night on our Facebook page. Leonard made a good point about the ECMWF family of models and one, he doesn't rule out a track up the west coast of FL and two, Erika is highly unlikely to be a hurricane despite the level of ocean heat available given the synoptic pattern and I like him, love to look at the global models and we have one in the name of that big trough that will cutoff and sit in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the subtropical upper ridge; where the two run up against each other will be a good steering current if the upper low is in the right place; it's not clear if Erika will crawl up the coast or be pulled by the UL. If it were my call, I think Erika is closer to 15N where that convective blob has been for a while and where the shear aloft is less. I do believe in the here and now were dealing with multiple centers. I don't see anything on radar that leads me to believe Erika is near St. Croix. I will also add I haven't been happy with NHC though I commend their continuity; it's just wrong.

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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95785 - Fri Aug 28 2015 02:09 AM

Yep - indeed multiple centers - probably a mid-level that got sheared away from the low level and has since developed down to the surface. I've been tracking the northern center - the one near 17N - but only because the low-level banding is still associated with that center. NHC defines it as a broad area of low pressure with multiple vorticies - which usually means that the model output can be messed up and quite variable if you use an arbitrary centerpoint to initalize the models.
ED


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95789 - Fri Aug 28 2015 06:59 AM

Just hitting daylight with the satellite pics. Will be interesting to see the RGB and the potential of seeing the LLC clearly, if there is one that is completely closed. The interaction with Hispaniola will be interesting.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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JMII
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95792 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:09 AM

Once again Erika is S and W of her forecast position. She missed her chance to slide between PR and the DR. In her current state and given the mountains survival is going to be tough. Given her weak condition I wouldn't be surprised to see even more western drift unless one of these multiple vortexes results in a "jumper" - a storm that reforms completely disconnected from the current blob that is labeled as the "center".

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: ralphfla]
      #95796 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:36 AM

Satellite imagery is showing multiple swirls, also note the low level cloud collision over Hispaniola (you can see the outline of the mountains)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...mp;numframes=30

Trying to pinpoint a true center will be difficult (use recon). The dominant one is probably the best bet, but not necessarily.



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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: ralphfla]
      #95797 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:37 AM

Those kind of responses are a bit ridiculous, but the news HAS been reliving Katrina this week and will be reliving Andrew in a week or so. For people who have moved to Florida from out of state and know NOTHING of hurricanes and preparedness (not to mention no-hype sites like this one) there is an element of panic the first time you are in a cone of prediction. I just try to be patient with them and informative. I am a teacher whose week can be hugely impacted by a storm up the Florida west coast....but just watching right now...

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95799 - Fri Aug 28 2015 11:34 AM

Based on the last several frames of the visible, it looks like it is going west northwest, soon to be right over the heart of Hispaniola.


... and maybe not


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craigm
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #95806 - Fri Aug 28 2015 03:08 PM

Quote:

Based on the last several frames of the visible, it looks like it is going west northwest, soon to be right over the heart of Hispaniola.


... and maybe not



The whole convective blob / multiple vortices / Erika mess does appear to be exhibiting a wnw motion. Recon fixes seem meaningless. You could probably find a dozen vortices if you flew around enough in there. It is a waiting game now to see what Erika may evolve into, after dealing with DR and shear, either an open wave or a stronger cyclone near the Bahamas or a system headed into the Gulf. There is a tremendous amount of energy associated with this storm as evidenced by the persistent convection to the SE of the perceived center. With the latest model output everyone from Louisiana to the Carolinas might as well watch this storm. Check your Storm supplies, lubricate your shutters and exercise your generator. Best case this is a good dry run. Sit back drink a beer or an ice tea, surf your hurricane links and try and enjoy your weekend.

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Steve H1
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: craigm]
      #95807 - Fri Aug 28 2015 03:43 PM

Yeah, we will have to wait for late tonight or tomorrow morning to see what she looks like coming out of the greater Antilles. Not letting my guard down yet, as many others have thrown in the towel. If she survives and gets into the waters NW of DR, she could very well intensify,



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such.


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Littlebit
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Steve H1]
      #95808 - Fri Aug 28 2015 04:05 PM

Good afternoon, our local meteorologist said that even if she falls apart, the moisture would still reach the Tampa Bay area. Can someone let me know why this system wouldn't just dissipate like Danny did? Or did Danny continue on with moisture? Thank you.

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craigm
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: Littlebit]
      #95809 - Fri Aug 28 2015 04:21 PM

Quote:

Good afternoon, our local meteorologist said that even if she falls apart, the moisture would still reach the Tampa Bay area. Can someone let me know why this system wouldn't just dissipate like Danny did? Or did Danny continue on with moisture? Thank you.



Danny was a lot smaller than Erika and moving much slower all of which would amplify the effects of shear and land interaction.

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Littlebit
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Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards [Re: craigm]
      #95810 - Fri Aug 28 2015 04:23 PM

Ok that makes sense, thank you.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: cieldumort]
      #95812 - Fri Aug 28 2015 05:23 PM

The 5PM discussion basically explains that the NHC is, much like much of us, is really waiting to see what exactly happens between Erika and Hispaniola for the future track. The NHC never likes to make drastic swings in the forecast track unless absolutely forced to. But Erika's stubbornness on continuing west has created a bit of a forecast issue. They even mention that the models have consistently been wrong about it turning to the northwest. So much so the system has been outside of the cone of uncertainty (for the next point) since Wednesday.

They are maintaining it as a Storm for now to reduce confusion, and the fact that there still are TS force winds east of the "center". I doubt they will issue any watches/warnings for Florida until it clears (or is readily apparent it is doing so) Hispaniola.

Just as in the last few days, until Erika is clear of the Caribbean it's really tough to speculate what will happen.


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EMS
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95813 - Fri Aug 28 2015 05:55 PM

Great posts from everyone as always. Love this site.

I think the challenge is the NHC is trying to average the model outputs instead of picking one group. Assume it's 12:30 pm but you don't know this. You ask 4 people to estimate what time it is - 2 tell you it's noon, 2 tell you it's midnight, and not knowing who is right, you decide to go with the average and estimate its 6 pm. You will still be way off. Same principle here - one group of models says it's going to dissipate, one group says it's going to intensify possibly to a CAT 1 hurricane and go north. Clearly one group is really on target and one is way off. But instead of choosing a group they are blending the solutions and coming up with an answer that is bound to be wrong, just less wrong than they would be if they chose one group of model outputs.

All that said, I think the last forecast advisory/discussion was prudent -
Let's wait and see. There appears to be a blowup of convection on east side of the COC (current?) just as it moved on shore in Hispaniola.


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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: EMS]
      #95814 - Fri Aug 28 2015 06:49 PM

Quote:


I think the challenge is the NHC is trying to average the model outputs instead of picking one group. Assume it's 12:30 pm but you don't know this. You ask 4 people to estimate what time it is - 2 tell you it's noon, 2 tell you it's midnight, and not knowing who is right, you decide to go with the average and estimate its 6 pm. You will still be way off. Same principle here - one group of models says it's going to dissipate, one group says it's going to intensify possibly to a CAT 1 hurricane and go north. Clearly one group is really on target and one is way off. But instead of choosing a group they are blending the solutions and coming up with an answer that is bound to be wrong, just less wrong than they would be if they chose one group of model outputs.




This is always the case, and while it may be more of a weakness with Erika than usual, in fairness to the NHC, the expert models are also expertly weighted, and when the forecast isn't verifying well with the expertly weighted averages, we still have expert humans at the helm to make other adjustments as needed.

The science is simply not good enough yet to always handle how these weaker, less organized systems interact with the islands. And this season is already a challenging one to forecast in.


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95816 - Fri Aug 28 2015 07:31 PM

Quote:

The NHC never likes to make drastic swings in the forecast track unless absolutely forced to. But Erika's stubbornness on continuing west has created a bit of a forecast issue. They even mention that the models have consistently been wrong about it turning to the northwest. So much so the system has been outside of the cone of uncertainty (for the next point) since Wednesday




So at what point do they go with what they are observing and not what computers are telling them might (could or should) be happening out there since that predicted situation has failed to verify for 2 days now? The good news is Erika continues to take a path that prevents her from strengthening (over mountains, over land, thru shear), so at some point soon we will talking about a depression. Or worst case a small TS that will have very little time over before reaching FL. Unless this west trend continues to the point where she blows by Cuba and enters the GOM.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: JMII]
      #95818 - Fri Aug 28 2015 07:55 PM

Hmm the NHC's 8PM Track Graphic is bad, looks like prior coordinates. The misprinted the longitude in the advisory, (and it broke our automated system, so I'm sure it may have broken theirs.) I had to manually edit the coordinates on the left

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95819 - Fri Aug 28 2015 08:30 PM

Wow. Nice convective burst at 2345 UTC.

--------------------
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95821 - Fri Aug 28 2015 09:23 PM

Was scanning the NRL pages

saw this



Very surprising that the system has that much convection around the center (south semicircle) for a system on top of Hispaniola.


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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95822 - Fri Aug 28 2015 09:38 PM

Nice catch. It looked more and more like an open wave to me, even with the convective bloom. This clearly shows a mid or low level circulation.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: Doombot!]
      #95823 - Fri Aug 28 2015 09:40 PM

Quote:

Nice catch. It looked more and more like an open wave to me, even with the convective bloom. This clearly shows a mid or low level circulation.




Those microwave images tend to pick up the mid levels, so mid level circulation. It's not a "sudden eye", more just curiously shaped at the moment. However, it means Erika hasn't completely fallen apart, which means it has a shot at strengthening if it does clear the islands. If it were actually like that at the surface, I'd be very shocked.

The other interesting bit, looking at older images from that, it seems to be on the WNW/NW path now (at least at the mid levels) If that holds a few more hours, it may clip just the extreme eastern part of Cuba, and make tomorrow a lot more critical.




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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95824 - Fri Aug 28 2015 09:51 PM



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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: DaViking]
      #95825 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:13 PM

Added Cuban Radar Recording

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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95827 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:22 PM

Noticing reports of 20+ inches of rain today in Haiti.

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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: DaViking]
      #95830 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:47 PM

The officially tracked LLC does not appear to be all that dislocated from the incipient/potential mid-level circulation seen in the CIMSS loop above. Microwave and Dvorak LLC fixing also suggests that it is, at least briefly, also pulling northwest across Haiti in tandem with this mid-level feature.



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Steve H1
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: cieldumort]
      #95831 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:49 PM

What is your confidence level in that?

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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: cieldumort]
      #95832 - Fri Aug 28 2015 11:25 PM

The 11PM Advisory is out that included useful data from sondes dropped by the P3 flying around Hispaniola tonight. With this additional information, the NHC has been able to place the LLC close to 18.5N 72.9W, which continues the most recent wnw to nw heading.

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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: cieldumort]
      #95833 - Fri Aug 28 2015 11:30 PM

Added
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

Thanks DaViking


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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95835 - Sat Aug 29 2015 01:03 AM

Glad we have that radar loop. We might of had a nice blow up this evening...but will it have a LLC by 8am this morning. Will it shoot out west and be south of Cuba near 19N and 75.5W or will it follow the WNW to NW path and be in NE Cuba or just offshore...near say 20.5N and 74.5W. It would be nice to still have a LLC to follow but also might just be a open wave with no more W or NW winds

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: scottsvb]
      #95840 - Sat Aug 29 2015 07:46 AM

The 5AM center of Erika is suspect, looking at the overall structure a lot of energy is being ejected to the southwest, and a circulation is visible north of the eastern edge of Cuba.

Recon is out there investigating the potential new center right now. If this does become the new center, tracks will shift right again, and Erika has a shot at maintaining or strengthening slightly. If the official center south of Cuba sticks, it is much less likely.


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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95841 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:02 AM

Center relocated north of the island at 8AM. NHC is thinking dissipation, but recon recently found this:

SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 35 kts (40.3 mph)

Which suggests it may be holding. 11AM likely will shift back east again if they don't dissipate it. Lots of rain for Florida.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: scottsvb]
      #95842 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:06 AM

What is going on at about 21.8N/75.2W? Take a look at RGB. I am probably making out a low level swirl in my own eyes.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95844 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:10 AM

Erika out of the Caribbean, new article on the front page.

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