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Archives 2010s >> 2015 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - TS Erika
      #95645 - Sat Aug 22 2015 10:00 PM

At 23/00Z, Invest 98L was located at 13.3N 29.5W or well over 400 miles to the west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with sustained winds of 25 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. Movement is to the west northwest at 21 knots and a more normal, i.e. faster, movement to the west northwest should continue at about 22-25 knots for the next 5 or 6 days as the Atlantic ridge to its north rebuilds. System structure is good but convection was on the decrease today as the system encountered some dry Saharan air. A small area of convection is currently rebuilding around the center over SSTs of 28C. Because of a zone of windshear moving eastward, development will be slow at best for a couple of days. With the system encountering less windshear by Tuesday the chances for additional development should improve by midweek.

Title changed to reflect upgrade to Tropical Storm Erika

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Aug 24 2015 11:12 PM)

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - TS Erika [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95664 - Tue Aug 25 2015 12:55 AM

At 25/03Z, Tropical Storm Erika was located at 14.4N 47.7W or about 950 miles to the east of the northern Leeward Islands with movement to the west at 17 knots. Sustained winds are at 40 knots and central pressure is 1003MB. Although SSTs are 29C, the tropical cyclone should encounter some westerly windshear over the next day or two so additional development will likely be slow with convection sheared to the east from time to time as the system moves westward and eventually west northwestward. Erika could pose a threat to the northern Leewards and the Virgin Islands on Thursday.

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