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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Erika's Remnant Low Now Over Water
      #95884 - Sun Aug 30 2015 06:01 AM

3:30 PM 3 September Update
Dvorak fixes have been restarted today on Erikia's remnant low level circulation. The Low is centered off the Georgia coast and was most recently analyzed to be centered near 31N 80.3W, with maximum sustained winds of about 30MPH.

This low is forecast to move east-southeast over the next day or two, and as it could be tracking off the east coast of Florida and over very warm waters this weekend, bears continued watching.



6:30 PM 2 September Update
Erika's tenacious remnant persists, now traveling east-northeast to maybe even now more due east through southeast Georgia, with convective showers and a few strong storms. This feature has become a little better defined today, and could be crossing into the warm coastal waters overnight. As a few model runs have off and on suggested some regeneration possibilities once offshore, despite the odds, persistent features such as this always bear watching.

3:00 AM 31 August Update
Fred has continued to intensify overnight, becoming the second hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane conditions are approaching or occurring throughout the Cape Verde Islands this morning - an incredibly rare occurrence.

Ex-Erika's chances are down to zero for regeneration as not much of it is left.

2:30 PM 30 August Update
Fred is quickly approaching hurricane status and Hurricane Warnings are now up for the Cape Verde islands. If a Hurricane Fred goes over the Cape Verde, it would only be the 3rd recorded time a hurricane has crossed the island.

Cape Verde Webcam Record of Fred Approach

Erika's chances have dropped to near nil for regeneration, the upper level low has mostly moved on so the remainder of rain will be bandy, and mostly in south Florida until later tonight.

Original Update


The Erika remnants being tracked as Invest 90L have blown up some big convection overnight between Cuba and South Florida. These remnants have been trying to reorganize some, and there now appears to be two distinct vorticity maxima along this trough, one near the Keys, and the other over or just south of central Cuba.

While NHC puts the odds of redevelopment into a Tropical Cyclone at a rather low 30%, many of the effects will and have been the same (heavy to locally very heavy and potentially flooding thunderstorm rains, strong wind gusts, and possibly isolated waterspouts/weak tornadoes).

In addition to x-Erika in the western Atlantic, Tropical Storm Fred has formed just southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, which is now under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch. Fred is forecast to track northwest, and then turn west-northwesterly. More about Fred: FRED LOUNGE

Meanwhile in the Pacific, two large and major hurricanes are on courses causing some concern in the Hawaiian Islands - certainly a trend this year. More about Ignacio HERE (IGNACIO LOUNGE), and Jimena HERE (JIMENA LOUNGE).

Erika & Fred Links

Florida Radar Recording of Erika Approach

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach

TD#7 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#7


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#7 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#7 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#7

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#7
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#7 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


91L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Erika Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erika


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erika (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erika (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erika

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erika
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erika -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Fred Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fred


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fred (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fred (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fred

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fred
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fred -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio
News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.
News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser


Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 05 2015 02:48 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Trough of Erika Exhibiting Some Organization as TS Fred Forms & Ignacio [Re: cieldumort]
      #95887 - Sun Aug 30 2015 08:49 AM

Ex-Erika's center is just northwest of Key West this morning and a large area of rainfall is just offshore of South Florida. It'll be off an on (and heavy when on) for most of Florida Today. There is the potential for weak tornadoes and waterspouts later today.

There's also an excessive amount of lightning associated with some of these storms, particularly in south Florida.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Trough of Erika Exhibiting Some Organization as TS Fred Forms & Ignacio [Re: MikeC]
      #95888 - Sun Aug 30 2015 10:23 AM

I wonder if there is a new LLVortex forming near the Dry Tortugas. I see spinning in the new heavy convection.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Trough of Erika Exhibiting Some Organization as TS Fred Forms & Ignacio [Re: scottsvb]
      #95892 - Mon Aug 31 2015 10:19 AM

Fred's approaching the Cape Verde, some reports of storm surge flooding in some of the southern islands.

The webcamerecording is on Santa Maria (the island furthest northeast in the chain).


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Fred Approaching Cape Verde Islands [Re: MikeC]
      #95893 - Mon Aug 31 2015 12:09 PM

Here is a weather reporting site that is roughly northeast of the 31/15Z hurricane position.
ED

(Well not too much use - looks like they have stopped recording about 12 hours ago.)
Sal, Cape Verde Weather Conditions


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
TS Fred Weakening While Moving NW of Cape Verde Islands [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95895 - Tue Sep 01 2015 01:04 AM

Wind shear, dry air, and cooler SSTs are rapidly weakening Fred. Northwest movement continues and the system could drop to a weak post tropical entity in a couple of days.
ED


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Erika's Remnant Low Now in SE Georgia & May Enter Warm Waters Overnight [Re: cieldumort]
      #95906 - Thu Sep 03 2015 03:22 PM

Dvorak fixes are being restarted on Erika's remnant circulation, now being back out over warm ocean waters, and still relatively intact. In addition, the Erika Floater is back up.


A. 05L (ERIKA)

B. 03/1745Z

C. 31.0N

D. 80.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER JUST UNDER 1.25 DEGREES FROM A COLD OVERCAST IN EXCESS OF
1.5 DEGREES. SYSTEM WAS OVER LAND 24 HOURS AGO SO MET AND PT ARE NOT
AVAILABLE. FT IS BASED ON DT.


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