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Archives >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Ignacio Forecast Lounge
      #95685 - Wed Aug 26 2015 01:27 AM

Tropical Storm Ignacio currently in the EASTPAC near 12N 133W at 26/00Z is expected to become a Hurricane on Thursday and could pose a threat to the Hawaiian Islands - probably as a strong tropical storm or a minimal Cat I hurricane next Monday or Tuesday.
ED

Title edited.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 07 2015 02:18 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Ignacio Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95693 - Wed Aug 26 2015 07:13 AM


Tropical Storm Ignacio August 26, 2015

Another potential Hawaiian tropical cyclone this very active Pacific season.

As of August 26 at 2:00AM PST, Tropical Storm Ignacio was presently located near 12.5N 134W, with a minimum central pressure estimated to be 1001mb, and maximum sustained winds of 50MPH. Movement is to the west at about 6 knots.


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Ignacio Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95837 - Sat Aug 29 2015 03:14 AM

Ignacio's official forecast takes the cone tracking nw paralleling along the northern side of the entire island chain.

On this track serious flooding and wind damage will be possible over the entire archipelago.



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Stork
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Re: Hurricane Ignacio Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95855 - Sat Aug 29 2015 12:07 PM

The official forecast track keeps it north/northeast of the islands, but close enough, with enough uncertainty, that this morning's 11am (5am HST) advisory, has a Tropical Sorm Watch up for the Big Island, with other islands possibly being issued watches later today. Ignacio is now to a category 3 and definitely presents itself as a powerful cyclone churning across the central Pacific. It is projected to begin weakening Sunday, thankfully, though the the forecast discussion mentioned the possibility of Ignacio becoming annular, which would complicate how quickly it might do so. People in Hawai'i need to continue to be alert, no-one wants to see it take a leftward track within the cone. In any event, the Hawaiian islands have seen a very wet August, and even a brushing could cause some serious flooding and general headaches.

Edited by Stork (Sat Aug 29 2015 12:10 PM)


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berrywr
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Re: Hurricane Ignacio Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95856 - Sat Aug 29 2015 12:18 PM

He's 5 mph shy of a Category 5 at this time.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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cieldumort
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Re: Ignacio Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95921 - Mon Sep 07 2015 02:33 AM

Post-Tropical Storm Ignacio still retaining quite a fair share of tropical characteristics while now even traveling over sub-22c SSTs.

As of 0530Z Sep 7, PT Ignacio was centered near 42N 165W, with a rapid track to the north. PT Ignacio is expected to begin turning more to the right, and actually make something of a windy splash along the coast of western Canada midweek.

Despite the cooler-than-tropical waters PT Ignacio is now traversing, it appears that The Blob may be helping the cyclone's efforts to retain a marginal to moderately deep warm core for a while longer. (First image below)





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