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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Shear Rules the Airwaves as Grace Falls Apart
      #95916 - Sat Sep 05 2015 08:02 PM

1:00 PM 9 September Update
Grace has opened up into a wave well east of the Caribbean. Significant regeneration is unlikely over the next several days in the face of high shear and abundant dry air, but the remnants could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms along its path.

East of Bermuda, TD Eight has also been compromised by high shear. As Eight tracks north this shear could relax a bit, but the cyclone will also be traveling across increasingly cooler waters, which should limit potential future development.
-Ciel



5:30 AM 8 September Update
Grace has had a somewhat sustained convective flareup overnight and remains a 40MPH Tropical Storm, for now. Within the next 72 hours increasing shear and potential dry air entrainment could all but snuff out the fledgling cyclone, however.

In addition to Tropical Storm Grace, this morning two new disturbances are being watched closer to home: Invest 92L with a moderate chance of development, and a very small, but tightly-wound, quasi-tropical low centered just southeast of St George Island (no Invest tag yet).

92L will probably meander a bit before turning more north later this week - and most likely stay out at sea. The small Gulf of Mexico low is presently producing rounds of blustery showers with gusts to near tropical storm force over a very small area, and will probably move inland later today or tomorrow without becoming a named system.
-Ciel


Original Entry
Tropical storm Grace has formed in the far eastern Atlantic and is forecast to move generally westward over the next 5 days,with some strengthening earlier on and more hostile conditions later that would likely keep it weaker.

Those in the Eastern Caribbean islands will want to watch Grace, but conditions haven't changed all that much yet from when Erika went by, so the trend of weaker to the west is the most likely scenario for Grace. As always, things can change in the tropics, so it will be important to keep watch.

Fred is still holding as a depression, and has a chance to reform into Tropical Storm strength again in a few days. It will likely not affect any more land directly.

94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


93L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93:


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93: (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93: (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93:

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93:
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93: -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Grace Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Grace


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Grace (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Grace (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Grace

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Grace
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Grace -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Henri Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Henri


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Henri (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Henri (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Henri

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Henri
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Henri -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Shear Rules the Airwaves as Grace Falls Apart [Re: MikeC]
      #95932 - Fri Sep 11 2015 05:05 AM Attachment (240 downloads)

Question. Why would the Navy continue tracking the remnants of Grace a full day after she dissipated?
see attached image above and link to their website below


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi

On further review they are not updating- not sure why they haven't pulled it off their site however'

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Fri Sep 11 2015 11:11 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Shear Rules the Airwaves as Grace Falls Apart [Re: craigm]
      #95934 - Fri Sep 11 2015 03:54 PM

Quote:

Question. Why would the Navy continue tracking the remnants of Grace a full day after she dissipated?
see attached image above and link to their website below

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi

On further review they are not updating- not sure why they haven't pulled it off their site however'



Craig, you had it right the first time. Many sites are still tracking the remnants of Grace. For example, here is the most recent Visible thumb up on NRL right now:

07L.GRACE, TRACK_VIS, 11 SEP 2015 1930Z


Grace never stopped being tracked for a few valid reasons. For one, the system did not completely fall apart, but rather opened up into a wave - most of the time. There have actually been a few occasions since the Final Advisory where it appears to have briefly closed off again. Another very good reason to keep tracking Grace's remnants is that in a few days conditions from the western half of the Caribbean to the GOM may become rather conducive for development, at which time the remnants could very well be entering such a sweet spot. To this point, a few model runs have even hinted that the remnants become a component of a new or redeveloped tropical cyclone then.


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
middle of the atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #95936 - Sun Sep 13 2015 10:30 AM Attachment (244 downloads)

Just wondering if anyone else sees that spin along 10N 46w see attached file. NHC makes no mention of it.
Could aid to hamper development of the system to the east being tracked by the NHC, also would go to full the models and cause, more westward movemnt then forcast of the low being tracked by the NHC.

Edited by Robert (Sun Sep 13 2015 10:44 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: middle of the atlantic [Re: Robert]
      #95937 - Sun Sep 13 2015 02:40 PM

I've been watching that one for a couple of days and it indeed does have a small circulation center located near 10N 47W at 13/18Z. I think that the system to its east (Invest 93L) has enough distance between the two that the influence on 93L would be minimal. Any impact would require that the system along 47W would need to have significant development and right now it looks like Invest 93L is going to be the predominent system. Note that there is also another system (Invest 94L) in the southwest Bay of Campeche that is worth watching.
ED


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