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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Dynamics + Thermodynamics: Atlantic Climo Peak Picking Up
      #95939 - Mon Sep 14 2015 02:04 PM

6:00 PM 20 September Update
Ida is still struggling in against shear in the central Atlantic, and remains a concern only to shipping interests.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression SIXTEEN in the far EASTPAC has formed just offshore of the Baja. SIXTEEN is forecast to create copious rains and potentially life-threatening flash floods in the desert southwest. More on this cyclone can be read about and discussed here (SPECIAL STORM PAGE ON SIXTEEN) .

11:00 AM 19 September Update
As noted elsewhere on the main page and in its respective Forecast Lounge, TD 10 has become Tropical Storm Ida. There is a chance Ida could become our third hurricane of the season over the next few days.

Closer to home, Invest 96L remains very broad and unorganized, but there is still an opportunity for it to become a hybrid named storm within the next few days, especially while it remains over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

11:00 AM 18 September Update
Invest 95L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 10.

8:30 AM 18 September Update


Invest 96L is draped across Florida. This system is a conglomeration of greatest hits, containing moisture and energy related to former Invest 94L, former Tropical Storm Grace, a left-over frontal boundary, and a mid-upper level trof. As such, it is a bit of a messy, elongated system, with no one primary center of low pressure just yet, and a bit of a hybrid.

96L has a Moderate chance of development, and could continue to affect the southeast and up the coast for several days, regardless of development.

Out into the central to eastern Atlantic, TD NINE is barely hanging on, and may be declared a remnant low soon. Invest 95L, the much larger system to NINE's southeast keeps eating up fledgling disturbances around it, and may actually do the same with the remnants of NINE. 95L's movement is to the west-northwest, and bears continued watching.

12:30 PM 16 September Update
Invest 93L has developed enough organized convection for the NHC to designate it TD NINE. Because of increasing shear and dry air along its forecast track, NINE is not predicted to become a named storm, and in fact, the NHC calls for it to weaken into a remnant low with 72 hours.

3:30 AM 16 September Update


1:00 PM 15 September Update
The lowest pressures associated with Invest 94L in the southwestern Gulf are already mostly over land, near Tampico, MX, but its eastern half is now interacting with a left-behind, stationary frontal boundary and a mid/upper-level trof to produce a widespread area of showers and thunderstorms, some of which are pushing into eastern Mexico and south Texas.

On the other side of the GOM, the Remnants of Grace are now also interacting with this same trof and stationary frontal boundary, helping to squeeze out more showers and thundershowers around south Florida.

In the central to eastern Atlantic, Invests 93L & 95L continue to show signs of increasing development, but remain no immediate threat to any land.

Original Update
Climatologically, the Atlantic basin sees two primary peaks in the conditions that favor the formation of tropical cyclones, and both occur during the month of September.

The first condition, which tends to peak during the early part of the month, has to do with the number and intensity of disturbances - tropical waves. The second, has to do with the propensity of the atmosphere to create and support thunderstorms, and this tends to peak in the latter part of the month. Between these two is a sweet spot where they intersect, and at least climatologically speaking, when the Atlantic basin sees the greatest number of disturbances encountering the most conducive atmosphere.

Not quite so this year. However, we are now seeing another ramping up of disturbances basin-wide, but as has been the case during most of this season, support is wanting - with abundant high shear and dry air putting a lid on many a seedling's chances.

Still, these are several disturbances we are now watching, none of which pose any imminent threat to the continental United States. These features range from near zero chance of development, to likely. The disturbance closest to the US and already affecting land (eastern Mexico) is Invest 94L.



96L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


TD#9 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#9


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Ida Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ida


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ida (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ida (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ida

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ida
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ida -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)





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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Dynamics + Thermodynamics: Atlantic Climo Peak with Several Invests [Re: cieldumort]
      #95949 - Wed Sep 16 2015 11:41 AM

NIce Graphic, Glad to see you included the wave over the Hispanola.

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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Dynamics + Thermodynamics: Atlantic Climo Peak Picking Up [Re: cieldumort]
      #95953 - Fri Sep 18 2015 02:33 PM Attachment (218 downloads)

Looks like a low level center finnaly made landfall in everglades city.
You can see it on the radar loop out of miami and key west.
Wish you had the recording going it would be a good
To watch over the last few days, finnaly it came this one came ashore.
Sation out of flamingo or south tip of florida has a prominent wind
Shift from SSE to WNW and now sustained winds of 25 knts
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=nfbf1

Edited by Robert (Fri Sep 18 2015 02:42 PM)


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