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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2015 Storm Forum

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Area of Interest - Invest 94L
      #95942 - Mon Sep 14 2015 02:56 PM

At 14 Sep 2015 1830Z, Invest 94L was located just offshore of Tampico, Mx near 22N 97W, with maximum sustained winds of about 30 MPH, central pressure of 1010mb and movement almost stationary. SSTs are running around 30C, with modest shear over the system out of the west-northwest, that becomes high just to its north.

Some additional development of this system is plausible early this week, after which shear is forecast to increase in the area to levels prohibitive of further development, while the feature is forecast to track inland over eastern Mexico.

In the near-term, 94L's greatest impediment to becoming a named tropical cyclone is its close proximity to land.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: cieldumort]
      #95945 - Tue Sep 15 2015 10:02 AM

The dynamic in the GOM has changed radically since this time yesterday...the mid-level trough mentioned in forecasts to be developing, seems to be taking shape in the mid GOM south of NO/LA at about 92-93 W... the 1013mb low near Mexico is slated to dissipate, but "weak" low pressure is anticipated to form and move along this newly formed trough over the next few days...

To me it seems that the GOM is ripe for development IF the right ingredients happen to fall into place, and I personally will be checking the progress of this dynamic closely. I am a little suspicious about what I am seeing here.

--------------------
doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: doug]
      #95954 - Fri Sep 18 2015 03:46 PM

the area has crossed into the Atl. and is now 96L..it is a very sheared system and I do not think it has much of a future...although I did see one run of a GFS model that did close off a low here.

--------------------
doug


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