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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
SW Gulf 94L Forecast Lounge
      #95938 - Sun Sep 13 2015 07:12 PM



An area of low pressure has developed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and as it has disassociated itself enough from its parent trof/front to warrant closer inspection, this Low has been Invest tagged 94L.

Invest 94L is presently located near 22N 97W, and is situated in a somewhat favorable environment, which should continue to a lesser or greater extent for a few more days, thus development into an officiated tropical cyclone by mid-week would not be surprising, despite inconsistent , if not tepid, model support.

This is where to post thoughts on 94L's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95943 - Mon Sep 14 2015 08:06 PM

Invest 94L is actually looking a little better tonight, despite a gentle dial-back on potential for development from the NHC (down to 20%). It seems that the NHC is taking into account the increase in shear over the system, as well as its continued close proximity to land, which seems reasonable. Nonetheless, 20% could be conservative - the system already has had something of a closed circulation during most of the day today, and is starting to become a greater player within its domain, overall. Provided 94L does not push inland too soon, it could very well become a depression - either way, 94L will likely be a prolific rainmaker over eastern Mexico, and possibly southern Texas, as well.



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