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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - Earl
      #96417 - Sat Jul 30 2016 04:14 PM

At 30/18Z, Invest 97L was located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 15.3N 54.5W with sustained winds of almost 30 knots and a pressure of 1009MB. Movement was to the west to west northwest at 30 knots and SSTs are 30C. Near-term additional development should be held in check by the rapid forward speed and some southwesterly windshear. Early next week conditions for development become more favorable as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea and forward motion slowly decreases. Rainsqualls likely for the remainder of the weekend in the central and northern Lesser Antilles and for the Greater Antilles early next week. Interests in Jamaica, the Caymen Islands and the eastern Yucatan should closely watch for additional intensification of this active tropical system.
ED
(Title changed to reflect current system status.)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 97L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96426 - Mon Aug 01 2016 12:58 AM

Invest 97L undergoing a signifcant convective burst south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic near 15.5N 68W at 01/04Z. Good outflow developing in the northern half of the system suggests the likelyhood of at least TD formation. SSTs are still 30C.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Earl [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96451 - Wed Aug 03 2016 12:42 AM

At 03/03Z, Tropical Storm Earl was located just off the northeast coast of Honduras near 16.4N 83.0W with winds of 50 knots gusting to 60 knots and a central pressure of 996MB. Earl was moving to the west at 14 knots over SSTs of 30C and a general west to west northwest movement is likely. Additional strengthening is also likely and Earl should pass just to the north of the Bay Islands of Honduras (Roatan) at or near hurricane strength Wednesday afternoon. Landfall in the vicinity of Stann Creek, south of Belize City, Belize, around 06Z in the early hours of Thursday morning as a Cat I Hurricane. Since this tropical cyclone was slow to ramp up it will probably be slow to spin down as it crosses Belize, extreme northern Guatemala and the southern Yucatan on Thursday. As Earl enters the southern Bay of Campeche it should regain tropical storm strength as it heads toward Veracruz, Mexico, Friday evening.

The following Warnings & Watches are in effect:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
* NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO.

Belize City 250KM Radar Loop

Belize City Long Range 400KM Radar Loop

Current Weather Conditions at Roatan, Honduras

Current Weather Conditions at Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize

Current Weather Conditions at Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico

Current Weather Conditions at Veracruz, Mexico

Heavy rainfall will cause flash flooding and mudslides with accumulations of over a foot likely in the mountains of Belize and northern Guatemala.
ED


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