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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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SouthGAwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Georgia
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96688 - Sun Aug 28 2016 12:31 PM

12Z GFS looks very different to me, Mike? 1007mb depression (or bare minimum TS) at best, with significant dry air intrusion and wind shear from the southwest at landfall.

Frame linked (1st image) shows an extremely small area of TS force winds on the east side of the circulation, but I suspect that is air damming more than organization.

I can't help but wonder if the system will survive at all.






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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: SouthGAwx]
      #96692 - Sun Aug 28 2016 02:18 PM

12Z Euro has it weak and stretched out with a landfall on Thursday morning.north of Tampa, just a rain system. It is much weaker than the earlier runs.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96693 - Sun Aug 28 2016 03:13 PM

Key West radar seems to show a C of C just offshore of Matanzas, Cuba.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2

Edited by MichaelA (Sun Aug 28 2016 03:28 PM)


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD NINE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96695 - Sun Aug 28 2016 04:54 PM

Recon has closed off Invest 99L and NHC has started Advisories on the ninth officiated tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This thread's title has been updated accordingly.

Quote:

5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 28
Location: 23.7°N 81.7°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph




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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 49
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96696 - Sun Aug 28 2016 07:50 PM

Based on the short and long term wind shear forecasts, don't see how this turns into anything more than a minimal tropical storm, if at all. If it doesn't develop, what's the likelihood that the forecast track verifies?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD NINE [Re: EMS]
      #96698 - Sun Aug 28 2016 08:09 PM

18Z Model runs (still not a lot of recon data in it)

Landfall Big Bend, Late Thursday night and out by Jacksonville Friday Morning. then bends back into a quick glance with Cape Hatteras on Labor day.

HWRF (Still not a great hold on it yet): Hurricane on Tuesday, landfall near Crystal River Early Thursday morning, cat 3, Out by St. Augustine by Midday Thursday cat 2.

GFDL: Landfall Cat 2 near Panama City Beach late Thursday night. Out by Jacksonville as a depression on Saturday.

CMC: Landfall near Destin, Cat 1 Hurricane late Thursday night, doesn't reenter ocean.


TD#9 hasn't been established long enough for some of the hurricane models GFDL/HWRF for a good feel on intensity, but that will likely start to change tomorrow. There is a lot of potential shear, but TD#9 has done a good job of finding a hole in it today (more than I would have thought). Odds favor it remaining a Tropical Depression or Storm, but that could change rapidly. Most models suggest an awful long time over extremely hot water temperatures.


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cieldumort
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Re: TD NINE [Re: EMS]
      #96701 - Sun Aug 28 2016 09:29 PM

Quote:


Based on the short and long term wind shear forecasts, don't see how this turns into anything more than a minimal tropical storm, if at all. If it doesn't develop, what's the likelihood that the forecast track verifies?




In order to answer that, I think it helps to make sure we are talking about the same thing.

While in general parlance, 'develop' is a subjective word, in tropical weather-speak, it has more consequence. Such is the case with NINE. TD9 is already developed, as in, it is a bona fide tropical cyclone. This status upgrade means several things beyond simply 'a reason' to issue Watches and Warnings. It means that its internal mechanics are notably different - more sophisticated - than that of a mere wave, you know what I mean?

Using a not perfect thunderstorm analogy, but one that I think makes some sense .. a tropical cyclone is to lows in the tropics what the supercell is to an every-day thunderstorm. One tends to last a lot longer. and has the potential throughout its life of coming into environments that help facilitate its creation of especially harsh weather- eg; huge hail vs just some rain.

NINE has the potential now to help create some of its own favorable environment to work with, even if the overall atmo is less than ideal. That said, there are several signs that the atmo ahead is actually marginally supportive in the aggregate, as it is, and looks like it has a few especially helpful nooks and crannies that NINE might encounter along its way.


All that said, if it were to outright fall apart into an open wave, then we would be looking at those forecast tracks being pretty much useless, and just go with the lower level winds, perhaps. BAMS, etc.


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berrywr
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
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Re: TD NINE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96705 - Sun Aug 28 2016 11:17 PM

I believe there is way too much emphasis placed on what seems like a gazillion hurricane track models. One look at CIMMS Tropical Weather Shear Analysis and Colorado State's RAMMB satellite page is about all we needed to know about 99L for the better part of a week. Tonight the low level center is under very light winds aloft but along the northern Cuban coast which is indicative of a south than due west track today. Analysis of the upper level 500 millibar chart today revealed a touch of a ridge axis extending into the Central Gulf of Mexico. At 29/00Z heights had fallen between 10 and 20 meters and 0 if you extrapolate AIRMETs in the Gulf of Mexico west of the system. The evolving upper air pattern is expected to change over the next couple of days from an upper high centered over the Mid-Atlantic to New England area with upper level lows south of Louisiana and off the Georgia/Florida coast to an upper high over the Central United States and a shortwave possible full latitude longwave along the Eastern United States with another upper high east of an upper low over the Bahamas. It is impossible to ignore SSTs of 30C and an upper air pattern conducive to strengthening but one does have to go far to find unfavorable upper air winds aloft courtesy of our upper low south of Louisiana and what appears to be a tropical wave out in front of the system moving east to west that set off convection that clearly had its tops in upper level moving west to east. One might even make an argument for multiple low level vortices, but the folks at NHC have better eyes than me and a bigger screen to look at continuity. We'll see in the morning where it's at on visible satellite.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Sun Aug 28 2016 11:47 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD NINE [Re: berrywr]
      #96708 - Mon Aug 29 2016 07:16 AM

Here are the morning model runs, for better or worse. Watch actual conditions, particularly for intensity, but the general pattern of location of track has been consistent lately.

6z GFS: Tropical Storm over the Big bend early Friday morning, out Jacksonville by the end of morning, actually gets a bit stronger in the Atlantic.
0Z euro has a strengthening Tropical Storm approaching the big bend Thursday night and exiting Jacksonville Friday morning.
12
6z HWRF: Starts developing it more Tuesday morning, Hurricane by late Tuesday night. Landfall as a category 1/2 hurricane near or just north of New Port Richey Wednesday afternoon, weakens rapidly over Florida.
6z GFDL: Landfall West side of Panama City Beach, late Thursday afternoon cat 2 hurricane.

What we can gather for this is today is mostly a day of keeping TD#9 together, and not for strengthening, tomorrow/Wednesday has the best shot of acutally strengthening when the shear abates since influence from the upper lows is expected to be the least at that time, but dry air is also a negative factor. However the water temps are high enough that if the system were to find a sweet spot, it could kick off like the HWRF shows.

This is probably the biggest question. The location of landfall and timing Wed night - Friday Morning range, location is likely Big Bend or just outside of it along the Florida west coast or Panhandle. Strength could be between moderate Tropical Storm to Category 2 hurricane (With odds leaning toward the weaker side). Tomorrow night into Wednesday some of that may narrow a bit, but that's the range of uncertainty. The pattern that will likely push it northeast also may be positioned to boost the strength a bit as well, so forward motion when it does move may be quick, which is better for less rainfall flooding. Surge will occur, the level of which depends on how large the system gets.

Additionally this morning, the convection is expanding, shear is starting to drop. The Upper level low to the north east is injecting moisture and beginning to fade, There is an anticyclone area just to the west of the storm (and the ULL to the northwest is relatively weak, if TD#9 develops it will likely hold that off) Loads of moisture coming in over Florida (and the east coast)

In short, TD#9 isn't in a great spot for development, but it definitely isn't a bad spot for development today/tomorrow I do believe it will get its act together more today. The ULL near Hispaniola probably will be in a spot to help the Southeast side ventilate rather than shear. A strong tropical storm or even minimal hurricane is likely wherever it makes landfall, probably north of Tampa in the big bend. The wildcard remains "Late August, Gulf of Mexico, Really Warm Water Temps" along with mixed factors for development making intensity very uncertain.



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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96711 - Mon Aug 29 2016 08:03 AM

That's pretty much what I gathered from the NHC discussion this morning - low confidence in the intensity forecast and reasonably confident in the track guidance. I'm leaning toward a strong TS to minimal hurricane at landfall somewhere in the Big Bend region of FL late Thursday. That would lead to a SW onshore wind south of the center causing high surf, elevated tides, and significant rainfall.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96715 - Mon Aug 29 2016 01:46 PM

GFS 12Z: Landfall Tropical storm in big Bend Thursday night. out by Jacksonville Friday morning.

HWRF: Now Landfalls as a Tropiclal Storm just north of New Port Richie Thursday morning. Weaker mainly because it doesn't have as much time over water.

EURO 12Z: Landfall in Big Bend as a strong Tropical Storm on Thursday afternoon/evening.

Up until it gets back in the Atlantic the GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement now for Apalachee Bay. Perry is the largest town the center would go near. This area of the big bend is very sensitive to storm surge, but is rather sparsely populated.




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doug
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96717 - Mon Aug 29 2016 03:36 PM

The latest position according to NRL Monterey was 23.8/84.5 indicating a NW'ly motion..

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96722 - Mon Aug 29 2016 05:18 PM

Cedar Key kinda sticks out there and is quite vulnerable to storm surge. This time of year, it's pretty much occupied by the permanent residents and fishing guides. They know what to do.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96729 - Mon Aug 29 2016 08:46 PM

18Z GFS has TD#9 as a Tropical Storm hitting the big Bend on early Friday morning

18Z HWRF has a category 2 hurricane (968 mb) with a landfall just north of Cedar Key.. Thursday morning.

18Z GFDL: Category 1 hurricane with a landfall also just north of Cedar Key midday Thursday.


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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96737 - Tue Aug 30 2016 09:53 AM

Quote:

18Z GFS has TD#9 as a Tropical Storm hitting the big Bend on early Friday morning

18Z HWRF has a category 2 hurricane (968 mb) with a landfall just north of Cedar Key.. Thursday morning.

18Z GFDL: Category 1 hurricane with a landfall also just north of Cedar Key midday Thursday.




morning all,

Today's the day. 'The Best Invest Ever' makes it's move. Making the 'cut' at the last moment. I'm looking at 89W
And the latest LBAR:

TS/Cat1 near the mouth of the MS River coming ashore on the Florabama line heading to Big Bend.

iMHO


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96738 - Tue Aug 30 2016 09:53 AM

99L has a pretty good model consensus now, most have it making landfall Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm in the Big Bend north of Cedar Key.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96747 - Tue Aug 30 2016 01:54 PM

9 is still struggling with shear and dry air. TS watch is up from Tarpon Springs/Anclote Key north and westward. The models still indicate a landfall between Hudson, FL and Panama City, FL. The longer this takes to organize/intensify, I'm not ruling out a more westerly track.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96749 - Tue Aug 30 2016 02:45 PM

12Z Euro is waking me up a bit. Was there new recon data that went into it? A little bit stronger system off St George Island in 60 hours than I was expecting to see.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96751 - Tue Aug 30 2016 03:10 PM

If I am reading the Recon data correctly TD 9 is not gaining any strength and does continue to struggle, apparently from shear. However the breadth of the system's influence seem to be increasing.

--------------------
doug


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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Re: TD NINE [Re: doug]
      #96752 - Tue Aug 30 2016 04:32 PM

Why does it appear on the visible loop that there is a competing circulation down around 22.8/87?

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