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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 48 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Regarding Invest 99L
      #96606 - Thu Aug 25 2016 12:24 PM

It is beginning to look like the GFS may have had the best handle on this system from the start. It was easy to toss it out because early on it looked like an outlier solution, but if a model has demonstrated prior reliability it always should be examined as the potential solution. One of the most important factors in tropical cyclone forecasting (and the one that is most often overlooked) is 'patience'.

99L is certainly a system that requires a 'lot of patience' with regard to its future evolution, if any. At 25/15Z, 99L was located near 21.4N 71.6W with winds probably more realistically at 30 knots gusting to 40 knots and a central pressure of about 1009MB. Movement is to the west northwest in the low level flow at about 12 knots. The low is open to the southwest and it at the moment it has no convective support.

SSTs are at 29.5C and windshear is light westerly so conditions are favorable for some eventual development - more so since the system now has just one circulation rather than the earlier disorganized structure of three. Movement should continue to the west northwest heading toward the Florida Straits and South Florida Sunday morning as a Tropical Depression or minimal Tropical Storm - then turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico while gaining strength on a path toward the north - central Gulf coast.

Blustery winds and heavy rain squalls seem likely for South Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend. Rain squalls also likely for western Cuba and, if the system develops quickly on Saturday, those squalls will extend into the northern Bahamas and the southern half of the Florida Peninsula. The next name on the list this season is Hermine (her-MEEN).
ED

(I guess that I spoke too soon - there are still two low-level swirls at 23Z that are merging over Great Inagua Island.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 25 2016 06:40 PM)


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