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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1404
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Trop Storm Ian Lounge
      #96932 - Tue Sep 06 2016 04:28 PM



A tropical wave that has recently entered the far eastern Atlantic mostly south of 10N with an associated wave pouch and developing broad low pressure has been flagged by the NHC in their most recent TWOs for high development potential in the 3-5 day range, while tracking WNW to NW into the central Atlantic.

Models have been running hot on this one, but Lounge caveats still apply. Models were also running hot on Invest 92L several days ago, before a combination of very stable, dusty air and shear prevented development.

This wave has not yet been Invest tagged, but will likely get one soon, and the title will be updated at that time.
*At 11AM AST Sep 12, Invest 94L was declared a tropical storm, Ian*

This wave has been tagged as an Invest and the title has been updated accordingly.


Mod Note: This is the Invest 94L Lounge, where posting personal gut feelings or extended model runs pertaining to this feature is appropriate. This forum is less strictly moderated than the main page, but posts should still be kept on topic (specifically related to Invest 94L here), and not done private message or chat room style. Your help with this is appreciated.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 12 2016 10:55 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1404
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Large Tropical Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #96939 - Thu Sep 08 2016 01:07 PM



A large area of disturbed weather roughly 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands is associated with a tropical wave. Owing to its size and the environment it is in, development, if any, will likely to slow to occur, but conditions could become more favorable late this weekend into next week as the wave gets closer to the Lesser Antilles, and NHC has given it between 60% and 70% odds at that time.


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