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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
HURRICANE NEWTON
      #96929 - Tue Sep 06 2016 12:57 AM



Powerful Hurricane Newton has been undergoing Rapid Intensification today, and this has persisted into the night, heading into landfall.

Josh Morgerman, who was just intercepting Hermine, is in Cabo San Lucas tonight live tweeting the landfall.

By midweek, Newton or his remnants may bring portions of Arizona and New Mexico rain, locally heavy, thunderstorms and possibly strong, gusty winds, especially close to the border and at higher and/or exposed elevations. Flash flooding is a possibility.


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cieldumortModerator
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Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE NEWTON [Re: cieldumort]
      #96930 - Tue Sep 06 2016 01:20 AM




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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE NEWTON [Re: cieldumort]
      #96931 - Tue Sep 06 2016 03:07 AM

Cabo San Lucas taking a direct hit. Cabo San Lucas webcam livestream

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE NEWTON [Re: cieldumort]
      #96933 - Wed Sep 07 2016 12:03 AM

Newton is a large and very resilient tropical cyclone, presently held as a 65 knot Category 1 hurricane, now emerging into the central Gulf of California, moving N at 17MPH, with an expected turn to the NNE or NE overnight, thus bringing the center of the cyclone into extreme southeastern Arizona by about mid-day Wednesday.

Prior to the arrival of Newton's center, strong winds and widespread, potentially locally heavy rains and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing. Flash Flood Watches, Wind Advisories and High Wind Watches are now up for much of southeast Arizona, with Flash Flood Watches up for most of New Mexico.

Officially, Newton is now expected to cross into Arizona as a tropical cyclone at or near Tropical Storm intensity, and still be a Tropical Depression while his center is passing within 50 miles or so of Tucson.

A summary of the 9:00PM MDT NHC Advisory as follows
Quote:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected
within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday morning, and
preparations to protect life and property should be complete.
Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading northward tonight
within the warning area in northwestern Mexico.

For the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm conditions will
gradually subside during the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions could spread into portions of southeastern
Arizona by Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 4
to 8 inches over northern Sinaloa and Sonora states through
Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in
Baja California Sur. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally
higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico
through Thursday. In all of these locations, heavy rain could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in
mountainous terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the track of
the center within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Elsewhere, elevated water levels are expected in areas of onshore
wind.

SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, but will begin to
subside on Wednesday. Large swells are occurring along the coast of
Baja California Sur and should spread northward through the Gulf of
California tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.





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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE NEWTON [Re: cieldumort]
      #96934 - Wed Sep 07 2016 12:41 AM

Newton model runs from 06/1200z 06/1800z and 07/00z.
These model plots are not set to update. This is a static image from 10:30PM MDT Sep 6


NOTE: XTRP is not a model, but merely an extrapolation of recent trends


There is strong consensus that the center of Newton and its remnants will track NNE-NE into SE Arizona and maybe then New Mexico. It is important not to focus too much on the center points in these states, as heavy and potentially flooding rains will likely occur in scattered fashion throughout these mountainous regions.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: HURRICANE NEWTON [Re: cieldumort]
      #96935 - Wed Sep 07 2016 10:22 AM

Weather Reports from Pioneer Airport near Fort Huachuca, in southeast Arizona:

Pioneer Airport Weather Reports

ED


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