Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Cabo Verde Season has Arrived: #Harvey #92L Tropical Waves and Tropical Lows all heading west #flhurricane.com
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 314 (Matthew) , Major: 4316 (11 y 9 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 350 (Hermine) Major: 4316 (11 y 9 m) (Wilma)
13.4N 62.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 92LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1468
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
KARL LOUNGE
      #96952 - Tue Sep 13 2016 11:26 AM



A good size tropical wave and associated area of broad low pressure is presently located a few of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde islands this morning, with movement to the west or west-northwest. After bringing the Cabo Verdes some blustery and wet weather, 95L could slowly develop and not hook right out to sea, so bears some watching... plenty of time to do so. Models are not all that hot on it, which implies a more southerly track for the next several days.

Invest 95L has acquired sufficient organization overnight out near the Cabo Verde islands to be classified as a tropoical cyclone, and has become TD 12. Karl as of 11PM Sep 15. The title has been updated accordingly. Karl now a strong tropical storm and expected to become a hurricane (9/23)

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 23 2016 12:04 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1468
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TD 12 LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96965 - Wed Sep 14 2016 11:23 AM



TWELVE is currently producing winds of at least 35MPH and is forecast to become a named storm later today as it tracks west-northwest. Later in the period, the storm is expected to encounter some strong shear, which should weaken the system, and put it on a more due westerly course. Given this, TWELVE has the potential to become a long-track Cape Verde type storm that could threaten the Antilles by the middle of next week. Alternatively, as forecast by the GFS, the cyclone may degenerate into an open wave prior to reaching those islands.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Owlguin
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Re: TD 12 LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96971 - Thu Sep 15 2016 03:19 PM

A couple models seem to want to develop this late in the forecast period and build a high pressure to move it west. Thoughts?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1468
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TS Karl Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #96972 - Thu Sep 15 2016 08:22 PM

Quote:


A couple models seem to want to develop this late in the forecast period and build a high pressure to move it west. Thoughts?




TWELVE was almost certainly a tropical storm - and possibly a moderate one - overnight last night, before being stripped of deep convection this morning. Good chance of reanalysis adding 6 hours or so from last night for the tropical cyclone's record.

Tonight, deep convection has been redeveloping earlier than what one would expect in a weak tropical cyclone, and a recent, clean ASCAT pass from 2248z shows an abundance of 30 and 35 knot winds, and UW-CIMSS Dvorak is back up to a raw T of 2.5 On these basis, TWELVE is likely a tropical storm again.

This is important, because it shows that the cyclone is stronger than being forecast for, and may begin feeling a tug poleward earlier than forecast, which could eventually allow it to recurve before ever becoming a concern for the Antilles, let alone mainland U.S. (all unknown speculation at this point, but it is something to note and watch).

Modeling suggests that there is a possibility of TWELVE being shoved along at lower latitudes by stronger than forecast high pressure, even given a stronger named tropical cyclone, should it become one.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Sep 16 2016 12:40 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 131
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Karl [Re: cieldumort]
      #96978 - Sat Sep 17 2016 09:59 PM

So Karl looks like a fish spinner based on long range models, however it seems like it will make it's poleward bend at a slightly unusual longitude.

Is the Bermuda high displaced significantly to the east? I would have expected to see Karl get caught under the B.H. around day 5, bend more westerly, and resulting in a situation similar to the 1992 "A" storm.

In this case, nothing is guiding it westward as I'd expect. Anyone care to offer thoughts?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1468
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Karl [Re: Doombot!]
      #96979 - Sat Sep 17 2016 11:22 PM

Quote:

So Karl looks like a fish spinner based on long range models, however it seems like it will make it's poleward bend at a slightly unusual longitude.

Is the Bermuda high displaced significantly to the east? I would have expected to see Karl get caught under the B.H. around day 5, bend more westerly, and resulting in a situation similar to the 1992 "A" storm.

In this case, nothing is guiding it westward as I'd expect. Anyone care to offer thoughts?




As seen in the ECMWF run from 12Z today, most models are picking up on a break in the ridge created by a shortwave exiting Canada around 168 hours out, with a little extra kicker from whatever is left of Julia (the main player being the potent shortwave digging south as it exits Canada).



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1468
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TD KARL LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96986 - Wed Sep 21 2016 05:27 AM

As of 5AM EDT Sep 21, Karl is within hours of being declared a remnant low or open wave. Models grossly underestimated the persistence and intensity of the upper-level low to Karl's west, which has been imparting at times tremendous amounts of shear on the system.

Provided Karl can make some sort of a real comeback, models still insist that he will yet intensify and recurve out to sea. If this verifies, Bermuda may be more in play, as Karl is now even further west than the last "still hasn't turned yet" update.

If Karl is unable to reorganize, the remnant low or trof would need to be watched as it heads west for potential redevelopment around the Greater Antilles.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 8 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 3392

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center