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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Julia Lounge
      #96937 - Thu Sep 08 2016 11:58 AM


Above: 93L east of the Lesser Antilles on Sep 8 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a persistent area of low pressure have been increasing in coverage and concentration over the last 24 hours, and this feature is now being tracked as an Invest, 93L.

93L is presently centered near 17N 57W, with movement to the west-northwest, and has maximum sustained winds of about 25MPH. This feature could bring very wet and breezy weather to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in a couple of days, regardless of further development. NHC expects a turn more towards the northwest or even north later in the 5 day period, which could also possibly add Bermuda to that list.

Mod Note: This is the Invest 93L Lounge, where posting personal gut feelings or extended model runs pertaining to this feature is appropriate. This forum is less strictly moderated than the main page, but posts should still be kept on topic (specifically related to Invest 93L here), and not done private message or chat room style. Your help with this is appreciated.

Invests 93L has become Tropical Storm Julia and the title has been updated.
Julia has become post-tropical.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 19 2016 12:40 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #96938 - Thu Sep 08 2016 12:15 PM

A quick analysis of satellite and wind data this morning shows that the surface circulation that had been developing with 93L earlier this week appears to have been lost, and this feature is again more in the low-mid levels. Development into a tropical cyclone in the near term will probably be more difficult (estimated to be a low 10% by NHC, and that seems about right).

Late this week into next week conditions for development basin-wide, overall, look like they could become more favorable, and 93L may find its best chances from roughly Saturday night into next week. TBD..


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #96947 - Sat Sep 10 2016 09:01 PM

Doesn't look like much on sats today. But is anybody paying attention to it?

Call me curious...


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Happy Birthday craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #96948 - Sun Sep 11 2016 12:06 PM

Quote:

Doesn't look like much on sats today. But is anybody paying attention to it?

Call me curious...



Starting to watch-thought it would follow 92L
Tracking further N and avoiding influence of Hispanola
Euro has weak low pressure over Grand Bahama in 48
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016091100/ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_3.png

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Sun Sep 11 2016 12:08 PM)


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #96953 - Tue Sep 13 2016 11:48 AM


Above: 93L inland over east Florida Sep 13 1515z

Invest 93L is actually borderline classifiable this morning, sorta like what we saw a few days ago with 92L while that low was in the straits, but odds for further development with this one have officially dropped to near 0% as the system is already inland. However, as recently seen with the brutal tropical-hybrid low that tracked from Florida to Texas by way of Louisiana, tropical lows in fact can become vicious while inland, given the right conditions. As such, 93L still bears watching, primarily for local flood risks. Maximum sustained winds at this time are just below tropical storm force, at 30 knots, not all that strong, but over saturated ground can cause a few issues. Main risk, still localized flooding.


Models take 93L NW across north Florida, possibly into Georgia, or the peninsula.


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TROPICAL STORM JULIA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96966 - Wed Sep 14 2016 02:05 PM

Less than 2% of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones become named over land, and Invest 93L went strait to Tropical Storm Julia with the 11PM Advisory last night. There have been other situations where I personally felt a given Invest met the threshold for TD or TS while inland but did not get the official upgrade from NHC, and was maybe still a little surprised to see them do so with 93L, but by 11PM any reasonable excuse to hold out from calling it had clearly been exhausted. On the other hand, naming an inland developing Tropical Cyclone should indeed be done with due diligence. This is a rare event, but as an aside and a bit of a digression, climate models have been advertising that we may see a greater chance of this type of thing happening due to increased SSTs, higher Total Precipitable Water values, also favoring more numerous "brown oceans" (large areas of saturated or marshy ground).

Officially, Julia is forecast to hug the coast of South Carolina until becoming a remnant by the weekend, but the spread is large enough to consider the other possibilities. Some of these include:

Parking just far enough inland to maintain as a "brown ocean" tropical cyclone for several days, with potential for the deepest convection to blow up over land, instead of the Gulf Stream, including a possibility of 'core rain' events, where especially overnight very heavy thunderstorms become concentrated within the center. These inland risks would pose a dire flood threat. Some model runs have suggested this.

Pulling more out over water and intensifying, before coming back inland as a stronger tropical storm a day or two later. Some model runs have suggested this.

Pulling offshore and just meandering over water until steering currents eject a stronger tropical cyclone northeast. Some model runs have suggested this.

So there are several possible outcomes with this one. Julia remains in a region of weak steering currents, with the convection weighted to the eastern half, helping keep the movement to the right of forecasts. This rightward pull has and will likely continue unless and until the convection fills in to the west, or the cyclone's surface and mid level centers significantly decouple.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TROPICAL STORM JULIA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96980 - Sun Sep 18 2016 10:05 AM

According to Phil Klotzbach, yesterday Julia became the longest-lived Atlantic named storm in the satellite era not to exceed 35 knots.

Overnight, convection began flaring up and reorganizing, and as such, once again, Julia has lived to fight another day.

An upper trof approaching Julia from the west could pass over in a way that provides shelter for further development by Monday morning, possibly even setting up anticyclonic flow aloft with an outflow channel for the cyclone. If this was to verify, Julia could quickly take advantage and become a tropical storm once again while along or near the Carolina coasts early in the coming week.


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