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Non-Tropical Invest 90L continues producing gales east of the Bahamas #flhurricane.com
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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Matthew Forecast Lounge
      #96985 - Wed Sep 21 2016 05:09 AM



A modest tropical wave with an associated pouch, P39L, centered near the Ivory Coast of west Africa is set to enter the far eastern Atlantic by the end of the current week. This wave, while light on convection, has strong model support for development in the 7-14 day range.

Normally pushing it even for Lounge material, the overall environment basin wide in the Atlantic, and especially so from about the MDR - west into the Gulf, looks like it could be in a very positive phase for both convection and organization during that time frame.

Provided P39L stays south as presently forecast by several global models, there is a chance that a strong tropical cyclone would be approaching the Antilles within a week or so, and then possibly entering the Gulf of Mexico during the first week in October.

It is worth noting that since 1900, Florida has had by far the most hurricane landfalls of any state after mid-September (source: Philip Klotzbach).

This wave has been Invest tagged 97L and the title has been updated accordingly. Recon has found a closed low with 60MPH on 9/28 and the title has been updated.

Edited by MikeC (Thu Sep 29 2016 02:06 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96992 - Thu Sep 22 2016 08:35 PM

Wave Pouch P39L Sep 22 2145z


The first of several tropical waves along a wave train in western Africa has just stepped into the far eastern Atlantic, well southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. This wave appears a little better organized today, and definitely more convectively active.

Slow development over the next several days is possible as this wave tracks towards the west, and NHC odds of it becoming a depression or named storm are at 20% within 5 days. Later next week model support for this feature becomes quite strong when it could be near or in the Caribbean and in a region that looks likely to become favorable to very favorable for development around that time.

We will probably see this feature given an Invest tag by Monday and will update the title as appropriate.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96994 - Fri Sep 23 2016 09:51 AM

Still very long range out for these, but the GFS shows a gulf threat, and the Euro has a well developed system in the Western Caribbean.

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doug
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: MikeC]
      #96995 - Fri Sep 23 2016 12:48 PM

On Wednesday I noticed that GFS had a 985 mb system just north of western Cuba on 10/4. Since GFS was very accurate re: Hermine during its long run, and since we are out of state that week I took particular notice...thanks for beginning to post these periodic model analyses for us all to monitor.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: doug]
      #96998 - Sun Sep 25 2016 09:14 AM

No trends to speak of on the models, they are all over the place and shifted way too much between runs to be comfortable with anything. Another system that is basically "Until it develops" ignore anything beyond 4 days out on the models and wait to see if the trends iron out.

Right now I'd suspect that this system has a very slightly bit higher odds to miss the US just to the east with a potential cutoff low eroding the ridge, but would bring some impacts to the Bahamas/Caribbean. But confidence is pretty low, check back in a week if you are interested in that. The setup is likely to cause rough surf and some erosion along the east coast of Florida, though.

The biggest difference between this and what eventually became Hermine is that this wave is further south, and likely more influenced by equatorial Kelvin waves. How far north and when it gets early on will likely impact the odds of recurve, which I thing will go down if it does stay further south.

The Windwards may get a TS out of it around Wednesday, and also Venezuela and the southern Caribbean islands near south America, as well as Jamaica needs to watch it closely.

In short, keep watching it.


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IsoFlame
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: MikeC]
      #97000 - Sun Sep 25 2016 10:40 AM

The system will indeed be of increasing interest if it starts to get its act together mid-week. One thing I see day 6/7 GFS is the possibility for a 7-9 mb gradient to set up over the Florida peninsula from Jacksonville south to Miami next weekend, ramping up a rather stout onshore ENE/E flow by Sunday, quite possibly a prolonged period extending into the first week of October. Given the above, Florida's east coast may be in store for a significant coastal erosion event if 97L were to re-curve NW/N in the central Caribbean.

Edited by IsoFlame (Sun Sep 25 2016 10:43 AM)


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97002 - Sun Sep 25 2016 03:24 PM

No models take this system into the western Caribbean anymore. Even given how far south this will be, the models are really digging a trough into the eastern US and western Atlantic, and parking it there for several days, eroding any ridging to the north.

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SouthGAwx
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97003 - Sun Sep 25 2016 11:23 PM

I can't help but feel like the global models are developing 97L a bit early, and then intensifying the cyclone too fast in the Caribbean. There has been much discussion on the eventual track of 97L -- but I caution everyone to not assume that the forecast of a major hurricane in the Caribbean Sea is in the bag. See the latest SHIPS/LGEM guidance below, indicating that the 72-96 hr time frame may be quite hostile. This particular model has been trending in that direction for a few runs now.

97L is almost completely void of convection tonight and with the rapid westward movement, organization will be slow to occur. If 97L does not setup a good "foundation" over the next 48 hours, it may enter the Caribbean Sea as a critically injured wave.

Take care,
-C.




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cieldumort
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97004 - Mon Sep 26 2016 01:45 AM

While the quick development and sharp hook to the right and out to sea makes it look like the models have a solid handle on 97L, there are actually several variables at play which could put the proverbial fly in the ointment at any time. As mentioned above, one of these is the potential for shear to be considerably stronger than an incipient or even fully developed tropical cyclone can deal with. Another, as can be seen in the image below, 97L is a large wave, and as such, slow to organize. In fact, a new wave "Pouch" has formed recently (P43L), leaving P39L way back in its wake. Additionally, there appear to be three vorticity lobes more or less surrounding the Pouch, but not necessarily rotating around the pouch, which suggests a level of independence that could further complicate consolidation.

Several runs of the HWRF as well as the Canadian have broken 97L into two or three tropical lows, usually with a primary getting very strong, and the others nearby, or lagging behind. This would not be impossible, but more often something (still infrequently) seen in the West Pac, from one of those truly massive tropical trofs or gyres out there. 97L is big, but not quite that big. So maybe less plausible than it would seem given several model runs advertising this outcome, but not to be written off - maybe two tropical lows, or a TC and a half would seem a more plausible scenario with this one. TBD ... still developing.

The take-away really being that while having near certain development odds, just a lot of known unknowns yet to be worked out.



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cieldumort
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97005 - Mon Sep 26 2016 06:30 PM

ECMWF and GFS 0z ensemble member runs from this morning generally painting two very different scenarios. This trend has continued so far today.

These two models and their individual members are largely thought of as the two top to go by, and until we have a more consolidated system to hang hats on, the spread may continue to be large. Look for better clarity once a tropical depression or storm has formed, and recon has flown in a few times. Until then, all interests from the Lesser Antilles to the Greater Antilles and points west and north from there may want to pay close attention.



Image credit: Dr. Jeff Masters, Wunderground.com


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97006 - Tue Sep 27 2016 05:03 AM

Still not developed, so take model runs with a bit of salt past about 4 days, but, here are the main oeprational ones:

GFS, Tropical Storm of Depression over the central Lesser Antilles by Wednesday afternoon, moves west into the Central Bahamas, becomes a hurricane before starting to turn north Saturday, then slams into Hati Sunday evening and weakens, over Turks and Caicos on Monday, then generally east of the US, possibly effects on Newfoundland in Canada. the Friday after it. This model si a bit suspect with the sharp north turn, but this is not impossible, the ensemble mean is a very more spread out, which indicates low confidence beyond 4 days or so.

Euro: Over the central lesser Antilles on Wednesday, Tropical Depression or Storm, by Friday, north of the southern Caribbean islands, but possibly a hurricane. Takes a bit of a southwesterly dive on Saturday, moves west on Sunday, avoids impacts with South America, stronger, Monday, slower, but moving north nnw, Tuesday, hits Jamaica from the south as a major hurricane, landfalls on Cuba Wednesday, then rides along it fairly slowly to the west northwest, and by the end of the run on late Thursday night it is just inshore over Cuba due south of West Palm Beach. Ensemble spread winds up this far out ranges from the Yucatan to the Eastern Bahamas, so a good deal of uncertainty past this Friday.

Birefly, CMC has it crossing Jamaica, eastern Cuba, central Bahamas, and then winds up over the outer banks on Wed, Oct 5th. Navgem, has it close enough to Florida as a hurricane to cause some issues, by the end ot the run. HWRF is very slow and still has it in the Central Caribbean (South of Haiti) by the end of its run on Sunday, but also as a strong Hurricane.

In short, without a developed system it is really too soon to tell beyond 4 days based on the ensemble spread, but the trend has been a bit west, enough to call odds about 50/50 for direct US impact right now. Land impacts would weaken the system, but Jamaica should be watching this one very closely. The lesser Antilles will likely see some tropical storm impacts (even if it doesn't quite make tropical storm status by the time it reaches them)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97007 - Tue Sep 27 2016 07:00 AM

97L is looking pretty healthy on this Water Vapor Image of 09/27 at 0656 EDT.

Image removed as it was not static - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 28 2016 05:53 PM)


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craigm
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97009 - Tue Sep 27 2016 10:48 AM

While watching and waiting here I was wondering which model suite did the best with Hermine?

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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doug
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: craigm]
      #97010 - Tue Sep 27 2016 12:18 PM

IMHO GFS did the best with Hermine by far. It and HWRF develop this into a 970(approx) cyclone and take it into the Caribbean and then turn it sharply north roughly along 73W over Haiti and continuing northward...thus these models and suites are based on a trough expected to exit the SE US 7-8 days from now to be very strong and pull the system due north. The ECMWF also expects a strong storm and takes the system further west and at the same intervals as GFS slows it as it is crossing over Cuba...
The accuracy of these solutions depends on the relative strength and location of that trough. I would think it will be 48-72 hours before the forecast tracks can be trusted.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #97011 - Tue Sep 27 2016 03:54 PM

12Z Euro has a 938mb Hurricane going to South Florida on Fri Oct 7th, after hitting Jamaica on Tuesday and eastern Cuba on Wednesday. GFS is still well east of Florida, odds still favor staying east of Florida, but there remains a great deal of uncertainty with this system that hasn't quite developed yet. (Recon is on its way to determine that, however)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97013 - Tue Sep 27 2016 04:28 PM

Recon did not find a closed circulation. The system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force and the thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97014 - Tue Sep 27 2016 08:02 PM

18Z GFS shoots then hurricane between Cuba and Haiti Monday morning, then moves north through the Central Bahamas as a Major Tuesday morning, continues north, it is just east of North Carolina on Friday the 7th, then hooks over Manhattan on Oct 8th, extratropical system, but still very powerful.

Ensemble spread isn't as large as yesterday but still runs from just west of Florida to well east of Florida in the longer range.

18Z hwrf gets it to cat 4, goes over Haiti in the Tiburon peninsula Sunday morning and winds up in the Windward passage by Monday morning heading north.

18Z GFDL gets it southwest of Jamaica by Sunday and hits cat 5.

Again, before the system gets developed still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast beyond 4 days or so.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97015 - Wed Sep 28 2016 01:48 AM

Some of he models really crank this system up but I can't see anything that would support rapid intensification. The system is going to encounter southwesterly windshear later on Wednesday into Thursday so I believe that development will be a little slower than advertised. 97L will likely become a tropical cyclone but I'm not convinced that it will reach major system status.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97016 - Wed Sep 28 2016 08:03 AM

Morning models, Euro has it moving over Jamaica from the south as a strong Hurricane on Tuesday, over eastern Cuba Wednesday, and ends up Just southeast of Andros island in the Bahamas as a major late Friday night, slowly moving.

6ZGFS misses Jamaica to the east, and slips over the eastern tip of Cuba Monday afternoon and moves north and has a landfall Thursday October 6th, near Morehead City, NC.

HWRF also misses Jamaica to the east and slams eastern Cuba on Monday morning (937mb Hurricane)


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berrywr
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97017 - Wed Sep 28 2016 09:21 AM

Let me throw my two cents in on this system - Currently (Wed - 9/28 - 9 am ET) there is an upper high directly over "Matthew". That said, windshear from the SW and S ramps up to 40 knots almost immediately to the system's track. Models bring this system to a snail's pace in about 48 hours and leaves it down there for another almost 48 hours SSE of Jamaica...reasonably between 3 and 4 days from now and then if our upper level players are where the models say they'll be a steering current between the upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic states and the upper level high to its east and northeast should be able to steer the system east of FL but the upper ridge sets up shop this time next week off the New England coast in essence forcing it back towards the United States eastern coast near NC as of this typing. There's no reason to believe we're looking at a Hurricane at that time. My concern is where in relationship to the upper level low/trough it will be where difluence could one; reduce shear and two, create a favorable pattern for convection. All of this for the moment is speculation. I'm not going to speculate what this system is and isn't going to do until I see enough development "vertically" which I then can interpret the model data. That system is pretty far south at the moment. Y'all have a nice day.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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