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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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gsand
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97435 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:22 PM Attachment (108 downloads)

Image from NWS Melbourne, substantial change from noon when they were forcasting 115+.

Sorry, thought I embedded it.



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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004
2017 Forecast- 12/5/2

Edited by gsand (Thu Oct 06 2016 06:24 PM)


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BayCoGator
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: NW Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97436 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:24 PM

Quote:

Could be my eyes, but Matthews eye seems to be East of the Forecast points?




Last few radar loops look to have a much more westerly motion. Perhaps this is part of the eyewall replacement cycle and the eye is sorting itself out.


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: BayCoGator]
      #97441 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:48 PM

Quote:

Last few radar loops look to have a much more westerly motion. Perhaps this is part of the eyewall replacement cycle and the eye is sorting itself out.




That was my observation as well. Its like he slammed into Freeport and just stopped, then juked to the left (west) and is now getting back on his feet. He was east of projected location until the cone adjusted at the 5PM update. Recon reports confirm this motion if you check the plotted low pressure points.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 304
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97448 - Thu Oct 06 2016 07:53 PM

I think that wants Matthew has cleared and he has the Western tip of Grand Bahama Island he will Begin intensifying Again conditions are favorable for this to happen my opinion only

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Steve H1]
      #97461 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:40 PM

Going to toss out a landfall guess now. Near Patrick Air Force Base, then north.

Factors: inner eyewall is slowly losing battle with outer eyewall, motion is better judged by outer eyewall on radar. Pressure is down, windspeeds have fallen, which implies the eyewall replacement is having an impact.

Note: This is *just* a guesstimate, it could make no landfall, or landfall south or north of this point. I'm probably going to be wrong.

Anyone else want to guess?


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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 32
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97466 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:52 PM

At 8 am I told my friends I didn't think it would make landfall in Florida based on the motion it was taking (a little north of north west) and the fact that it was east of the forecast points. East coast will still be in for a rough day but just don't think we will see an actual landfall south of the FL/GA border.

Thanks Mike to you and all the mods for their great work and a reminder to everyone on the east coast to stay safe and get out of harm's way.


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Troy C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 15
Loc: Satellite beach, FL 28.20N 80.60W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #97467 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:57 PM

Landfall guess? I hate to even think it, but, similar to Mike's: Between Cape Canaveral city and geographical Cape Canaveral.

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Kraig
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97468 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:59 PM

I have to concur, Mike.... Somewhere between Sebastian and the Cape. Patrick is as good a point as any!

Also have to add that at about 60 miles due east of my home, I can slightly exhale. Hoping it decides to stay east of forecast track!

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--------------------------------
2016 forecast 15/9/4 15/7/3 so far

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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BayCoGator
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: NW Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Troy C]
      #97469 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:01 PM

Cocoa/Canaveral would make the most sense right now. If it doesn't connect there it might not landfall in FL at all. I'll go with a wildcard...St. Augustine.

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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: BayCoGator]
      #97474 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:08 PM

Matt is tracking slight E of forecast again but with the double eyewall feature its hard to tell. Gotta say the Cape looks like where he'll touch US land.. if at all.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Lots Of Canes
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97475 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:09 PM

If the outer eye tightens I say target is between Daytona and S. Jax. Looks a lot like a Flagler strike. This storm has done a lot to avoid land. It wants to ride the coast up. If outer eye stays open, the Melbourne-ish and ride up giving every one both top and bottom of the eye. After this it turns right and interacts with his ex wife Nicole and sends her North and him South into a TD or TS that comes in S. FLoria and falls apart.

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IsoFlame
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 47
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97477 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:10 PM

First landfall not too far north of your guestimate near the City of Cape Canaveral, NNW through Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge and up the Mosquito Lagoon, then a wobble a bit more west near Oak Hill, tracking NNW between US 1 and I-95 from Edgewater to New Smyrna, bit of a wobble back east near Ponce Inlet and straddling the coast through Daytona Beach Shores, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, finally the entire eye back over the Atlantic just south of Matanzas Inlet, settling on a northerly course and leaving north Florida alone.

The conjecture above is based on a "pit-in-the-stomach" feeling that has been with me since Monday morning. Hope upon hope that Matthew unexpectedly veers north and the entire eye wall never touches the Cape or Florida's east coast.

Edited by IsoFlame (Thu Oct 06 2016 10:14 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97479 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:14 PM

The 18Z runs of the GFDL, GFS, and the HWRF models seem to indicate a slightly eastward track adjustment. If that verifies, the center may stay just offshore of Florida. Still, from Cape Canaveral northward will be the maximum impact.

--------------------
Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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Prospero
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 85
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97481 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:30 PM

Quote:

Anyone else want to guess?



Hmmm, an unscientific guess, since as of 10:00 pm watching the Weather Channel now saying there may not be a landfall, my intuition is that Matthew will play the cruel joke and hit hard and go a little deeper into Florida than anybody is suspecting.

I respect the mathematical probabilities and meteorological formulas that we rely on to predict where a storm will go, but I also believe this great ball we live on is a living breathing entity and has a physiological purpose for hurricanes and will do what it wishes to maintain its health while possibly enjoying making us all feel like fools sometimes.

Of course the other cruel joke would be that it stays just far enough out at sea that Florida and the US East Coast feels very little effects and the evacuations and hard work to secure life and property was for naught, which in the long run could be very dangerous when the big one does hit and nobody takes it serious.

I do wonder, if secret cloud-seeding is taking place now and then. There have been a few hurricanes over the past years I have watched that should have been much stronger and some kind of strange phenomena seemed to throw them off a bit at unexpected times. Katrina being one in mind, but did eventually did cut loose. If that is happening, then I'd suspect that by playing with nature we may be setting stage for a future storm nightmare.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97482 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:33 PM

Well I'm thinking no landfall at all. When I briefed EM yesterday I felt that it would stay about 30 miles offshore. I've been plotting all of the recon center fixes since 09Z and they have all been about 15 miles to the east of the forecast track that I used in the briefing - so I sure hope that the trend continues. That would put Matthew about 45 miles offshore east of Melbourne at about 07/1130Z.
ED


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Jelf
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97484 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:39 PM

Back on page 8 of this thread I posted a link to a Google/GIS map. Below is a link to the same map but showing some different GIS layers.

I turned off the layer with the cone of uncertainty and turned on the layers “Storm_surge_flood” and “24_hr_rain/flooding_report”. Since the layer with the rain/flooding reports is ‘on top’ you can click those symbols and see a popup with all the attribute data the GIS server has for the thing that you clicked. Those spot reports often have info about wind speed.

Hurricane Mathew Google/GIS map: http://bit.ly/2e7kTJh

When the map opens it is zoomed in a bit and centered on Merritt Island (Kennedy Space Center). The surge forecast shows that most of the island is expected to be underwater. Expected water depths are as follows:
Blue > 1 ft
Yellow > 3 ft
Orange > 6 ft
Red > 9 ft

For a link to some interesting metadata associated with this surge forecast, please click “About this map” in the upper left corner and scroll down to the entry for “Storm surge flood (7,9)” and follow the nowcoast link.

And if you are seeing this map for the first time and would like some tips for turning layers on/off etc, you will find that info by clicking "About this map" in the upper left corner.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97486 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:10 PM

Hope this verfies...and it looks like it is according to TWC....and yes, this is another example of why some people don't evacuate. I just hope people don't go to sleep thinking "Ok, we're safe" and wake up to a surpise. Good night and good luck.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Jelf
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97488 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:31 PM

I just remembered that I also produced a Google/GIS map that can show various data layers that are hosted on a Florida state server. This data comes from the FloridaDisaster.org team.

When this map opens it shows the forecast storm surge from a hit by a category 4 hurricane.

Florida storm surge Google/GIS map: http://bit.ly/2dQzXMl

To see the map legend click “About this map” in the upper left corner and then scroll down to the link for the Cat 4 legend.

This map also has a “Road closed” layer that can be turned on and which might be useful after the worst of the storm has passed.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Jelf]
      #97490 - Fri Oct 07 2016 12:17 AM

wonder if Nicole remained at 50mph we'd be looking at Cat 5 hitting Canaveral...?

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Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 385
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97491 - Fri Oct 07 2016 12:42 AM

I'm with Ed on no Florida landfall. The track has ever so subtle been bending more and more right since this Thursday morning. I'm not ready to rule out Savannah though. The 500 and 300 millibar charts both at 06/12Z and 07/00Z showed decameter height rises along the Atlantic coast and the major shortwave out west has also shown no height falls. This is indicative of a strengthening upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic with an axis extending east. They sampled the Gulf of Mexico for the 00Z run and the Atlantic on the 12Z run. Interesting thing about this storm is how well it's threaded the needle when it comes the eye being mostly over water through much of its life. The GFS model run at 07/00Z writes off Matthew in a week; sends Nicole out to the North Atlantic graveyard. I'm not ready to rule either of them out just yet. Upper air might have a few more surprises...yet.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Fri Oct 07 2016 12:44 AM)


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