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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97054 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:10 AM

The westernmost extent of the current model runs is about 72 west (timing around 7-8pm tonight), if it gets beyond that point to the west then chances increase for a US impact. The rapid strengthening was forecast somewhat by the HWRF, but not so much by the GFS, deeper influences may push it a bit west also, although perhaps not enough to make it to Florida.


Jamaica, however, risk is growing greatly. The last hurricane to hit Jamaica was Sandy in 2012.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97058 - Fri Sep 30 2016 12:15 PM

12Z GFS run moving now: Eastern Jamaica gets a Major Monday, Nassau gets hit hard on Wednesday also. Stays east of Florida, bit a bit closer than earlier runs. Starts moving to the northeast on Thursday (GFS has another low forming northeast of Matthew then, which is odd). I think no real change, a bit closer, odds a bit up for a SE impact, but still favors east. Ultra long range shows the system hooking back into Maine on Sun, October 9th.

CMC also shifted west.

Interesting trend, but not enough to be too concerned (for the US), yet, but confidence is lower than ever.

Bahamas though...


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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97059 - Fri Sep 30 2016 01:29 PM

Even though steering currents are starting to slow down now that Matthew is feeling less intense trade winds while the Gulf Trof - Bermuda High combo are still positioned too far to the NW & NE respectively for Matthew to feel, steering currents have not collapsed, and in fact, are now starting to trend more southerly ... something that if Matthew were to follow for a day or two could easily impact future track and intensity in a meaningful way ...



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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97061 - Fri Sep 30 2016 01:45 PM

Significant differences continue to exist between the ECMWF ensemble members and the GFS ensemble members. It is noteworthy that many of these have also already initialized Matthew as too weak and/or too north of current intensity/location.

Also, as Dr. Jeff Masters of Wunderground points out, given large scale uncertainties, the tight clustering of GFS ensembles late in the period could actually be an indication of a systemic error in that model.

The take-away is this: Multiple players with sizeable inherent uncertainties of their own, coupled with the possibility of model weaknesses, are affecting the quality of the model outputs, and thus, the official forecast cones. Florida, the east coast, and indeed, even the Gulf, are still at risk here, and should not take their eyes off of things.


Image credit: cfanclimate and wunderground


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Joeyfl]
      #97062 - Fri Sep 30 2016 01:53 PM

Recon now found a 957 mb reading.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97063 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:11 PM

12Z HWRF 951mb hurricane into Jamaica on Monday morning, eastern Cuba, Tuesday, then Long Island in the Bahamas late Tuesday moving NE.

6Z GFDL: 954mb hurricane into Jamaica on Monday morning, Cuba early Tuesday morning, Andros Island Tuesday night 963mb, ends 30 miles offshore cape Canaveral 955mb (Cat 3) Wednesday morning.


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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97064 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:33 PM

Hazel a fluke? Not so fast, as history shows otherwise.


Image credit: David Roth


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97065 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:34 PM

12Z Euro still running, but it approaches Jamaica Monday morning, bumps northeast, through the windward passage (almost like it's intentionally avoiding land) then heads northwest into the Bahamas, over the Central Bahamas Thursday morning, slows down a lot there also. 931mb storm (Cat4) Then starts moving back northeast, slowly on Saturday Oct 8. It stalls there until the end of the run.

This is a pretty troubling run since it basically increases uncertainty again. It's more or less stalled over the Bahamas Monday-(at least) Sunday with this run as a Cat 3/4/5 storm.



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Tazmanian93
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97066 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:45 PM

Thinking about what the Bahamas went through with Joaquin almost the same time last year

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97068 - Fri Sep 30 2016 03:47 PM

The big change in the later period on the euro is the sudden removal of the pesky upper low over the northeast US. The last several runs of the euro and other models have had that upper energy sitting there, helping to eventually steer Matthew out to sea. If that energy gets pulled out sooner and a ridge builds in instead, that's a big deal. One possible result, as the euro shows, is a turn nw over the Bahamas and a stall.

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Keith B
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #97071 - Fri Sep 30 2016 04:51 PM

Matthew is now a CAT 4. Ouch!!

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
AEC Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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Random Chaos
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #97073 - Fri Sep 30 2016 05:27 PM

As the storm continues to strengthen and the central pressure falls, we should be passing the 940mb barrier before long. There is substantial difference in the steering currents in the <940mb analysis than in all lesser layers - substantially more southerly motion. This could throw a big wrench in the model forecasts.

940-949mb steering currents (current):


<940 steering currents (probably later tonight or tomorrow morning):


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MichaelA
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97074 - Fri Sep 30 2016 07:06 PM

I'm not entirely confident in the forecast tracking for Matthew even though the models are all fairly consistent in that sharp, northerly turn. My lack of confidence rises from the possibilities that Matthew might stay so far South that the expected trough simply bypasses it. If that should happen, the northward turn would be more gradual or even not happen at all. I'll certainly be keeping a close watch on the motion of Matthew over the next few days and, hopefully, the track consensus will verify for us in Florida and elsewhere in the US. However, Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and The Bahamas may not be so fortunate.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 15/10/6


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OrlandoDan
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MichaelA]
      #97075 - Fri Sep 30 2016 07:31 PM

All reliable data points indicate a turn to he north. It's a matter of when and how far west he turns. Not saying there should not be great caution for Florida. Everyone should watch this diligently.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97083 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:19 PM

Early 0z guidance shifted a bit west tonight, last two frames of http://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2016&storm=14 shows it fairly well. No US landfalls there, but the end of runs does bring it much closer to the SE coast than before. Init point is already a bit too far north though.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MichaelA]
      #97085 - Fri Sep 30 2016 11:55 PM

0z GFS is running, a little bit slower moving than before, landfall Jamaica as a cat 4/5 on Monday evening (vs earlier runs where it was Monday midday)

Cuba landfall late Tuesday morning (6 hours later than the 18Z run).

Just east of Andros island Wednesday morning. Track is basically same as the 18Z run, just 6 hours behind.

Late Thursday night, 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral, cat 4/5.

Stays offshore and curves along with coast through SC Friday afternoon.

Just offshore Morehead City, NC Saturday morning, Still Cat 4, clips Cape Hatteras,

Late Saturday afternoon, just offshore Delaware, cat 3.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, landfall Rhode Island, Cat 2.

Not a good trend. This would force some hard decisions for Emergency Management and Evacuations along many areas of the east coast if it verified with that intensity.

If it comes to evacuations, I'd only recommend it if you are along barrier islands if you are inland and not immediately adjacent to the intracoastal, I wouldn't evacuate, especially if evacuations wind up covering a large swath of coastline. But regardless listen to local officials/media on that call. Lets hope it trends away from land in the next few model runs. Be aware, but watch to see where the storm winds up after Cuba.


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Robert
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97086 - Sat Oct 01 2016 01:13 AM

100 miles east of cape

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Robert]
      #97091 - Sat Oct 01 2016 07:37 AM

After a shift west in the GFS, the 0Z Euro did a shift east, with the storm heading northeast during the day Monday, avoiding Jamaica but going right over the western tip of Haiti in the Tiburon peninsula over the Turks and Caicos in the Bahams then northeast going directly over Bermuda october 9th, and then going out to sea, This keeps it well east of the US, and is a much better scenario for Jamaica, and the US. (Not so much for Haiti and the Turks & Caicos and Bermuda)

The 6z GFS is very similar to the 0Z GFS, with another 30-40 miles east away from the coast at its approach to Florida, hopefully the trend away keeps occurring, however it still goves over Eastern Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, through the western Bahamas, clips the outer banks Sat, October 8th , and then landfalls in Rhode Island on Sun Oct 9th.

0z HWRF stays east of Jamaica, landfalls on Eastern Cuba, goes over Long Island in the Bahamas and heads northeast, the 6Z GFDL also does this, which is a good shift east from yesterday.


Hopefully easterly trends continue today. If we start seeing northerly motion by this afternoon or early evening things may be better off for Jamaica. Odds still favoring the system staying east of Florida, but it may be close. Continue to watch. The possibility it stalls near the Bahamas is also still there.





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IsoFlame
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Robert]
      #97092 - Sat Oct 01 2016 07:52 AM

If the forecast track for Matthew to be a major hurricane slowly moving NNW parallel to and just offshore from Florida's east coast pans out, the big story for Florida will be multiple tidal cycles of severe coastal erosion from the Cape north to Fernandina Beach until Matthew gains latitude north of the FL/GA line and wind backs offshore, gradually knocking down the huge breaking surf.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97094 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:08 AM

Given some of the latest model runs,Mathew has our attention here in little Rhode Island.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Oct 01 2016 09:10 AM)


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