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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 772
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97096 - Sat Oct 01 2016 12:29 PM

Don't like that at the end of the forecast period it moves a little more west,and it goes back to a major hurricane.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 323
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97097 - Sat Oct 01 2016 12:56 PM

Is the reason Matthew is so lopsided right now with a lot of convection in that NE quadrant because it's so close to land on its southern side?

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 772
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97098 - Sat Oct 01 2016 02:00 PM

Quote:

Is the reason Matthew is so lopsided right now with a lot of convection in that NE quadrant because it's so close to land on its southern side?


.

No it is just going through in eye replacement.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97101 - Sat Oct 01 2016 04:51 PM

Northward movement happened before it reached 74W, which bodes well for staying east of Florida, but not as good for the Carolinas. Although it is better for Jamaica as it won't get a direct landfall if the forecast track holds. Cuba/Bahamas still will see the brunt of it, regardless. Hopefully it will
continue to trend east away from the US, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the system. NHC cannot rule out Florida, still.

One thing to watch out for is if to see if the northward motion is "real" or just an effect of the cyclonic loop, if it does another loop or moves more westward things may change. We should know the answer to that over the next several hours.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 772
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97103 - Sat Oct 01 2016 05:22 PM

I think that by next week all eyes will be on southern New England.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97104 - Sat Oct 01 2016 06:48 PM

When is the next Recon scheduled? I'm assuming (which I should never do) that once it passes Jamaica and heads into Cuban airspace they will not be allowed to fly into Matthew until it passes the restricted air space. I've been on here for a long time but I've never asked this question: does Cuba have a similar plane that flies into the eye of the hurricane and relays that information to the US? Sorry if that sounds like a stupid question but I was just wondering.

Edited by Colleen A. (Sat Oct 01 2016 06:50 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97105 - Sat Oct 01 2016 06:56 PM

18Z GFS run starts it moving northwest immediately clips the very western tip of Haiti late Monday night, then over eastern Cuba. Rides up through the central Bahamas, turns northeast east of Mytle beach, clips or just east of Hatteras, October 9th, landfall Buzzards Bay, MA, on Monday October 10th. Very far out and likely will change again.

Takeaways, Florida threat continues to slowly decrease, still a good threat to north Carolina and the Northeast, but many days for that to verify. Nowhere is in the all clear yet, though.


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97106 - Sat Oct 01 2016 06:59 PM

I don't believe that Cuba has any aircraft sophisticated enough to do reliable weather missions. The Cuban government usually grants permission for NOAA to fly weather related recon in Cuban air space. Currently, NOAA is "seeking a memorandum of understanding with the Cuban government that would give the operations center blanket clearance to fly over the island nation."

Details at the following link:

http://www.tbo.com/news/cuba/new-cuba-talks-may-speed-work-of-tampa-based-storm-trackers-20160818/


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1021
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97107 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:00 PM

Saw that AF304 just took off to head into Matthew, but looks like it turned around and went back to St. Croix? Anyone know what's going on?

Edit: found out why:

" SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0024Z SUN OCT 02 2016

THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ISSUE PROCESSING GOES-EAST DATA AT THE
NESDIS-SOCC. THIS IS IMPACTING RECEIPT OF GOES-EAST ON VARIOUS
PLATFORMS INCLUDING AWIPS. NESDIS IS INVESTIGATING.

SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP "

With GOES East down right now, they can't get fixes for the storm, so they had to turn the flight around. Don't know if they are going to still try to run it tonight when GOES East comes back up, or not.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Oct 01 2016 09:09 PM)


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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 32
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97109 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:08 PM

Looks like we have lost satellite too.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 302
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #97112 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:17 PM

I find it unsettling that we have lost a satellite. I'm sure we will reconnect.

(Post edited to remove unrelated remarks.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 02 2016 12:59 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97115 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:55 AM

The outage was caused by a data transmission problem with the satellite and it has been resolved. The aborted Recon mission was not related to the satellite - it was a mechanical problem. The last few recent satellite images imply a motion that is more to the west northwest but that may just be a temporary movement.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97118 - Sun Oct 02 2016 03:49 AM

0Z GFS Run slips direct landfall just west of Haiti, but does bring the bad weather over Haiti (including the eastern blob of convection) late Monday night. Landfall eastern tip of Cuba Tuesday morning, Right up the Central Bahamas, over Nassau Wednesday night. Closest to the Outer Banks on Saturday Morning, but shifted east from earlier runs, Eventually landfalls in Halifax, Nova Scotia on Sunday night October 10th.

0zEuro does show landfall on the western tip of Haiti, but on Tuesday, bumps a bit northeast over Crooked Island in the Bahams then moves northwest through the Central Bahamas and winds up close to north Carolina on Sunday October 10th, but no landfall. This run is much slower than the GFS and west of earlier Euro runs. After that it heads out to sea.

Matthew tonight is slightly west of the forecast track this morning, which could shift the near term a bit left, but still likely to avoid a direct landfall with Jamaica. This system is large and powerful, so even a miss would still see strong weather, particularly just east of the eye, still would be preferable to a direct hit.

In short The east coast, Florida through Canada will need to continue to monitor Matthew closely uncertainty remains very high.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97121 - Sun Oct 02 2016 08:22 AM

6Z GFS shifted west again, Midway between Jamaica and Haiti Over eastern tip of Cuba on Midday Tuesday. spends about 36 hours over the Bahamas running up all the middle Bahama islands. Landfall Morehead City, NC late F1riday night. Then rapidly moves to a landfall Saturday afternoon.
The storm remains a Major until after landfall in NC.

HWRF is further east, and keeps it out to sea, GFDL brings it close to North Carolina before the run ends.

Official track is east of the Euro & GFS, but still pretty close, I suspect the track may shift west again at 11AM, especially with the more westerly position recon found this morning..





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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 772
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97125 - Sun Oct 02 2016 10:16 AM

The new invest may keep Mathew from going out to sea.Biggest impacts I think will be NC and Southern New England as far as the U.S. goes.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97129 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:25 PM

12Z GFS now curves it away before hitting North Carolina, so no NC landfall this run, but it does get close on Saturday. East of Jamaica, over tip of Haiti, through a good number of the Central Bahama Islands, including over Nassau.

Main reason this time is what is currently invest 98L weakening the ridge enough for it to get pulled east before landfall. Incredibly complex and uncertainty is high. Slight edge to staying off the US coast, but very very slight. The GFS eventually does have a landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97131 - Sun Oct 02 2016 01:38 PM

Recon passes are showing the system is recovering a bit today, seems to have stronger winds again. and moving northwest..

edit: 2PM advisory out with 145MPH winds and moving northwest. Should have waited a minute more to post.

And just to reiterate, Florida east coast is STILL not in the clear.




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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97133 - Sun Oct 02 2016 02:29 PM

12Z Euro with another odd initialization (it looks like the blob east of Matthew is confusing it), but clips Western Haiti Tuesday (maybe just east of the east tip of Cuba also) morning, then over the southeastern Bahamas rides up just east of the Bahamas Wed-Fri, Ridge builds over new jersey, offshore Georgia Saturday morning, moving nnw, as it approaches North Carolina it starts moving northeast then loops back to the ese.

12Z Ukmet does have Matthew over Cape Canaveral on Thursday, the only real model to show a direct Florida impact, but hasn't performed very well.



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Kraig
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97139 - Sun Oct 02 2016 05:51 PM

Per the current forecast, beginning Tuesday morning Matthew is shown to gradually reduce max sustained winds. As a general statement, when major hurricanes lose top end speed does the overall wind field expand in a similar fashion as when a tropical system becomes extra-tropical, although not likely to the same extent? On Thursday evening, Matthew is currently forecasted to be about 220 statute miles east of the Palm Beaches, and currently TS winds extend outwards 207st. mi to the NW and about 115st.mi to the SW. It won't take much of an expansion to put the Palm Beaches into a TS Warning area. I know much can change but was just curious how the wind field may change. Thanks all!

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--------------------------------
2016 forecast 15/9/4 15/7/3 so far

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97140 - Sun Oct 02 2016 06:20 PM

18Z GFS is similar to the 12Z, with the ridge weakening toward the end of the run, Keeping it out to sea (From the US anyway, Halifax, NS still gets it). So nothing much changes tonight.

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