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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 32
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97143 - Sun Oct 02 2016 09:45 PM

Last few frames on satellite seem to indicate it has stalled again.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #97147 - Mon Oct 03 2016 05:01 AM

The theme for the 0z Models run today: Shift West, much closer to US..

GFS: Tuesday orning, barely offshore the west tip of Haiti's Tiburon peninsula, eyewall and convection to the east goes over Haiti. Then clips Eastern Cuba. Then rides up through most of the Bahamas (east of Abaco) Wed-Thursday Saturday morning begins to affect Noarth Carolina, western eyewall passes over Morehead City, and rides along outer banks to the northeast, no complete landfall however. Landfall Cape Cod, then moves northwest over Boston, Monday October 17th.

Euro similar to GFS but Slower, Bahamas Wed-Thursday 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday Slowly moves to the east over the weekend then back southeast on Tuesday October 11th. Very very slow. Note: The Euro Ensemble mean (EPS) does have a landfall or Cape Canaveral clip on the space coast Friday. If this would occur the western eyewall would impact Brevard and Volusia and hurricane and tropical storm force winds felt further inland.

HWRF moves the storm east of the main line of Bahama islands. GFDL ends with it nearing North Carolina.

All in all, still in the same boat, threat to Florida cannot be ruled out (if anything its more uncertain than yesterday), odds favor it stay east of US, but a very shaky odds. Not a good run for the Bahamas.




.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97148 - Mon Oct 03 2016 06:25 AM

6Z GFS: Central Bahamas Wednesday after moving just west of the the tip of Haiti and over the eastern tip of Cuba. North end of the Bahamas by Thursday (generally faster than the Euro by a day) Bends east away from the Carolinas (closest approach Midday Saturday). Maine landfall Sunday night. Slight shift east for GFS.

The 6Z GFDL run takes Matthew near Morehead City, NC on Saturday morning. 6Z HWRF gets it very close to Hatteras Saturday.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97151 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:21 AM

From Mike Ventrice:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081

Image:

"Not good. This AM's ECMWF High probability cluster with a BIG statement. All members now track #Matthew into Florida at a Cat 4 intensity."


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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97152 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:32 AM

Mike,

Is there any additional data that substantiates this information provided in this tweet?

Edited by Reaper (Mon Oct 03 2016 10:33 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #97153 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:36 AM

Quote:

Mike,

Is there any additional data that substantiates this information provided in this tweet?




I think it's mainly based on weather balloon soundings that show the ridge is stronger than expected. It'll likely play out in the 12Z full model runs.

High probability members are the previous run's ensemble members with the best match for the actual 8am initial conditions. That's all this means.


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IsoFlame
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 47
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97154 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:49 AM

This is a heart in throat moment for central Florida's east coast. Waiting on 12Z and 11am NHC update to kick in next level of SERIOUS preparation for Matthew.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97155 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:19 AM

Quote:

This is a heart in throat moment for central Florida's east coast. Waiting on 12Z and 11am NHC update to kick in next level of SERIOUS preparation for Matthew.




We probably won't get a serious idea on how close it may/may not come until late tomorrow. (maybe not even until Wednesday) Right now I think the NHC's track is pretty good.


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IsoFlame
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 47
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97156 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:55 AM

Given the 11am NHC day 4/5 cone and expanding 34kt wind radii (out 200 miles west of the center), the likelihood of experiencing tropical storm force winds along the east central Florida coast is increasing. TS Julia's track just inland up the Florida east coast in September produced an hour or so of sustained 40-50 mph winds in Daytona Beach Shores one block from the Atlantic Ocean. If latest official forecast pans out with Matthew, could see a longer (12hr?) period of similar wind speeds, with gusts in the 60 mph range. If future updates to Matthew's projected NNW track from 26-30N latitude shift west of 77.5W longitude, the potential for a closer brush from the Cape northward by the slow-moving hurricane parallel to the coast just offshore considerably raises concern. As previously posted, I think the big story for Florida's east coast will be serious coastal erosion from a strong/prolonged onshore fetch associated with a strong slow moving hurricane.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97157 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:00 PM

12Z GFS : Trend West, stronger ridging

Clips or just West of the tip of Haiti Tomorrow morning, Over eastern tip of Cuba late Tomorrow night. Rides up through the Bahamas Wed noon-Thursday night. Over Freeport, a good bit (100-120 miles) west of the earlier run.

100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday morning still moving nnw. Friday night offshore Charleston SE by about 100 miles, moving north.

Landfall NC on Saturday morning near SC/NC border, rides just inland to the Outer Banks and exits back into the Atlantic moving ene near Nags Head, NC.

Another landfall on Cape Code, Sunday midday, then one more in Maine Sunday night.


The UKMET brings the system into Florida this run. Landfall near Melbourne, riding just inside the coast up to Jacksonville and continues into North Carolina.



...


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 772
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97158 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:15 PM

Quote:

12Z GFS : Trend West

Clips or just West of the tip of Haiti Tomorrow morning, Over eastern tip of Cuba late Tomorrow night. Rides up through the Bahamas Wed noon-Thursday night. Over Freeport, a good bit (100-120 miles) west of the earlier run.

100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday morning still moving nnw. Friday night offshore Charleston SE by about 100 miles, moving north.

Landfall NC on Saturday morning near Caswell beach, rides just inland to the Outer Banks.



...




I think the odds of me being impacted here in Rhode Island are going up.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 304
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97159 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:38 PM

Yes, the west trend is upsetting to say the least. Just got my roof repair finished 2 weeks ago. Way too close for comfort. ugh.

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Owlguin
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Steve H1]
      #97160 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:43 PM

Agree. We'll see what the Euro does, but the GFS track would probably give us hurricane conditions along much of the Florida coast. Freeport is only 87 miles from here.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #97161 - Mon Oct 03 2016 01:46 PM

GEFS ensemble much closer to Florida, in range to get possible hurricane force winds along the coast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...os=0&ypos=0

12Z HWRF: Morehead CIty, NC

12Z GFDL 80-100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday, landfall Myrtle Beach, SC Saturday morning.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97162 - Mon Oct 03 2016 02:02 PM

12Z Euro running...
24 hours, over the western tip of Haiti (Tiburon Peninsula)
48 hours SW of Crooked Island in the Bahamas (west of the 12Z yesterday position)
72 hours (Thursday Morning): Over Northern Bahamas (100miles west of earlier runs)
96 hours (Friday Morning) 100 miles east southeast of Cape Canaveral (120miles west of earlier runs) close enough for watches/warnings.
120 hours (Saturday Morning) 60 miles southeast of Charleston
144 hours (Sunday Morning ) Rockets eastward 80 miles se of Morehead City, NC
Out to sea beyond that.

Euro Summary Stays east of US, but close enough for Tropical Storm force winds, would force warnings up along coast if it verified, at some points it gets as close as 50-60 miles from shore. Overall trend, west. 5pm track will likely shift a bit west.

If watches were needed for Florida, you could see those issued late Tuesday or Wednesday. Thursday/Friday would be the closest to Florida approach. For those in the Carolinas, keep watch any impacts wouldn't be until Saturday.


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97169 - Mon Oct 03 2016 05:32 PM

Staying offshore keeps the east FL coast on the weak side of the storm. As long as he stays small hurricane forces winds should (hopefully) not reach us. Guess the models are seeing a stronger ridge. The forecast for Matt has become this snake like path of wiggling back and forth between the islands. I knew the straight N thing wasn't going to hold, but honestly assumed a weaker ridge and a curve to the east after Haiti. The slow down in forward motion hasn't helped as its given time for ridge to build.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97170 - Mon Oct 03 2016 05:43 PM

18Z GFS:

Clipping over western tip of Haiti Tomorrow morning... Over eastern Cuba late tomorrow night,

back in the water by Wednesday around 7AM. Ridging appears stronger...


Over Grand Bahama Island Thursday morning, west. Just east of the Bimini islands later Thursday. 30 miles east of West Palm Beach Thursday night.

Friday AM (EARLY) 10-20 miles offshore port St. Lucie.

About the same offshore cape canaveral later that morning. (930mb, Cat 4)

Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday morning, then along SC coast for a bit before exiting. But generally scrapes coast with the western eyewall from FL to NC.

This could force coastal evacuations from Florida to North Carolina.



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97171 - Mon Oct 03 2016 07:35 PM

18Z GEFS (GFS Ensembles) West with a concentration over Florida (mean is the operational GFS just offshore)

HWRF: Stays comfortably east of Florida, but goes through the Bahamas, ends run just south of SC/NC border.

GFDL: Stays east of Florida, but close enough for Hurricane Force winds along the coast, tropical storm force well inland.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97179 - Mon Oct 03 2016 08:58 PM

If the 18Z GFS were to verify the eastern half of Central Florida could see 80mph winds (better chance and possibly higher the closer to the coast you get)

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97182 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:54 PM

I have cousins down from NJ staying at Disney (where else). I've texted them/FB them that they really need to stay on top of this storm. I'm not liking the westward movement at all. Is this a temporary movement? I know when I get messages from certain people that I need to pay attention. You know who you are & I thank you for it. I don't want to alarm them unless actually needed...what would your advice be?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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