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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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Colleen A.
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97183 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:01 PM

Would that include Tampa? I live in Lakeland..

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97185 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:34 PM

If Disney, Universal or Sea World were to close it would probably be Friday, but only if it got far enough west to cause hurricane conditions this far inland, which is doubtful. It'll probably be open, but very light crowds (since the weather will still be pretty ugly)

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97186 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:35 PM

0Z GFS Run: Init: On or Just west of the tip of the Haitian Tiburon Peninsula in the morning. Over eastern tip of Cuba tomorrow (Tuesday) night.

Offshore north of Cuba early Wednesday morning.

Just west of Long island in the Bahamas midday wednesday. over Nassau early predawn Thursday, Over Freeport Midday thursday.

Just East of west palm Thursday night.

Friday early morning 25 miles offshore Palm Bay. (934mb)

Friday late morning 25 miles offshore Daytona

Starts turning more north away from the coast, but approaches Charleston, SC early Saturday morning.

Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday morning. ~ 942mb

rides inland through SC and NC and exits in the outer banks by Nags Head Sunday morning.



Run still going...



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97187 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:35 PM

Compare the latest IR to one from 4 hours ago. Looks like it is going annular, though the transition hasn't completed yet:

Current IR, nearly annular:


IR from 4 hours ago, classic hurricane:


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RichardR
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97189 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:05 AM

It will be interesting though to see if the Turnpike / Beeline / E-W is turned one directional Westbound / Northbound to facilitate evacuations out of South Florida and the Space Coast. I seem to recall that was a change Florida EM made a few years ago following Floyd and some of our other doozies, to ease traffic congestion northbound, especially on the 2 lane stretches. If the Turnpike and other Central Florida tollroads are turned one directional starting Thursday, then the attractions might close out of necessity because of traffic management issues.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: RichardR]
      #97191 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:30 AM

0z UKMET landfall Cape Canaveral the rides inland up through Jacksonville. Very close to the coast from West Palm to the cape, though.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97194 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:16 AM

Every major overnight (0z) model run - same track. Rakes the FL coast up to landfall in SC; then goes just barely inland until Delmarva and on up the coast into New England. GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET. Only HWRF was a little further east. 6z GFS is verifying to continue this trend, though further east in the late time period, missing New England.

And this storm's annular. Ignoring the convective blob to the east, the entire rest of the storm is classic annular - large eye, large CDO, no spiral bands.

Here's night "visible"



And look at this incredible microwave pass from last hour:



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97195 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:26 AM

Here are the 6z tracks - continuing the tight trend first seen in 0z:



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97196 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:27 AM

Overnight Euro run: Same story as GFS more or less, timing similar, Just offshore (within 50 miles or less) of the East coast of Central Florida Friday morning. then riding near the east coast all the way up to North Carolina through Sunday. As a major hurricane 3/4 (at least near Florida if not longer)

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97197 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:40 AM

0z phase runs from HWRF & GFDL paint a very similar picture, but with the GFDL bringing quite a lot more hurricane force winds onshore, all the way from southeast Florida to the OBX, and a wider tropical cyclone overall. These runs also suggest a real surge threat along the southeast coast on all surge-prone locations in the path.

Maximum sustained winds at 925mb in both runs about 165 knots (reduction to about 150+/- knots at the surface - solidly Cat 5)




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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97198 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:46 AM

For discussion accuracy, Mattew is not annular. The very micrwoave pass included above from 0926z this morning shows the spiral bands W-NW-N and E-SE-S-SW-W.

SHIPS is also not analyzing as annular

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


It is however worth noting that in many respects, Matthew has been behaving a lot like an annular hurricane for much of its existence as a major.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97199 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:53 AM

Thanks for clarifying Ciedumort!

I wasn't paying close attention to the microwave pass.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97204 - Tue Oct 04 2016 08:28 AM

Quote:

Just offshore (within 50 miles or less) of the East coast of Central Florida Friday morning.




Not a fan of these shallow angle / coastal rider type 'canes. They tend to spread damage over a much wider area then straight-in type storms where the impact is direct and focused (around the eye wall) to a limited section of coast. The good news is as long as Matt stays small-ish the hurricane force winds could remain offshore. The bad news is pretty much the entire eastern US shoreline is going to be subject to TS forces winds over the next few days. Plus any slight shift west changes the wind effect greatly given the projection of a Cat 3 spinning offshore in the warm Gulf Stream current.

Model guidance is coming into a tight cluster, so confidence is high that the 3 day track looks to verify. At some point (late Weds?) will have to make the dreaded panels / no panels call. For SFL looks to be all day Thursday event.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97216 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:18 PM


Looks like the eastern eyewall took a direct hit on the 7,000' peak in Haiti. Eye completely filled in and may see some erratic movement over the next few hours.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-long.html

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2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #97220 - Tue Oct 04 2016 01:30 PM

Very busy.. .quick model rundown

12Z GFS: About the same as before, but stays off the NC Coastline
12Z GFDL: Big change : Landfall Boca Raton, friday morning borderline cat4/5. Over Orlando Friday night ca 2/3, Out at Jacksonville Saturday morning. Link to run
12Z HRWF: Landfall Morehead City, NC Saturday morning. Cat 3




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tkusant
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97221 - Tue Oct 04 2016 01:55 PM

Looks well north of boca, more central florida hit maybe. I am in fort lauderdale, we won't get much unless it heads more west soon. Not worried. I would be concerned for central florida and the entire coast up to nc.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97222 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:08 PM

12Z Euro run is delayed approx an hour today.

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97223 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:14 PM

Quote:

Looks well north of boca, more central florida hit maybe. I am in fort lauderdale, we won't get much unless it heads more west soon. Not worried. I would be concerned for central florida and the entire coast up to nc.




You aren't directly in the crosshairs, but you are not nearly out of the woods. A central Florida hit would mean Fort Lauderdale would get strong hurricane winds for a long time. It isn't just the eye you need to worry about.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97224 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:17 PM

Quote:

From Mike Ventrice:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081

Image:

"Not good. This AM's ECMWF High probability cluster with a BIG statement. All members now track #Matthew into Florida at a Cat 4 intensity."




Are these models available anywhere? From reading Mike's tweets, it seems he has access to models that are not publicly available, but they are very interesting. EWMCF High Probability Cluster models?

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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tkusant
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97226 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:49 PM

Just saw the correct GFDL. Yeah. looks like boca, maybe even further south. Maybe I will get something in Ft. Lauderdale. Too soon to know yet, but I am optimistic that it be too far east to do anything here. But the gdfl is interesting!

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