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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Matthew Forecast Lounge
      #96985 - Wed Sep 21 2016 05:09 AM



A modest tropical wave with an associated pouch, P39L, centered near the Ivory Coast of west Africa is set to enter the far eastern Atlantic by the end of the current week. This wave, while light on convection, has strong model support for development in the 7-14 day range.

Normally pushing it even for Lounge material, the overall environment basin wide in the Atlantic, and especially so from about the MDR - west into the Gulf, looks like it could be in a very positive phase for both convection and organization during that time frame.

Provided P39L stays south as presently forecast by several global models, there is a chance that a strong tropical cyclone would be approaching the Antilles within a week or so, and then possibly entering the Gulf of Mexico during the first week in October.

It is worth noting that since 1900, Florida has had by far the most hurricane landfalls of any state after mid-September (source: Philip Klotzbach).

This wave has been Invest tagged 97L and the title has been updated accordingly. Recon has found a closed low with 60MPH on 9/28 and the title has been updated.

Edited by MikeC (Thu Sep 29 2016 02:06 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96992 - Thu Sep 22 2016 08:35 PM

Wave Pouch P39L Sep 22 2145z


The first of several tropical waves along a wave train in western Africa has just stepped into the far eastern Atlantic, well southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. This wave appears a little better organized today, and definitely more convectively active.

Slow development over the next several days is possible as this wave tracks towards the west, and NHC odds of it becoming a depression or named storm are at 20% within 5 days. Later next week model support for this feature becomes quite strong when it could be near or in the Caribbean and in a region that looks likely to become favorable to very favorable for development around that time.

We will probably see this feature given an Invest tag by Monday and will update the title as appropriate.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96994 - Fri Sep 23 2016 09:51 AM

Still very long range out for these, but the GFS shows a gulf threat, and the Euro has a well developed system in the Western Caribbean.

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doug
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: MikeC]
      #96995 - Fri Sep 23 2016 12:48 PM

On Wednesday I noticed that GFS had a 985 mb system just north of western Cuba on 10/4. Since GFS was very accurate re: Hermine during its long run, and since we are out of state that week I took particular notice...thanks for beginning to post these periodic model analyses for us all to monitor.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: doug]
      #96998 - Sun Sep 25 2016 09:14 AM

No trends to speak of on the models, they are all over the place and shifted way too much between runs to be comfortable with anything. Another system that is basically "Until it develops" ignore anything beyond 4 days out on the models and wait to see if the trends iron out.

Right now I'd suspect that this system has a very slightly bit higher odds to miss the US just to the east with a potential cutoff low eroding the ridge, but would bring some impacts to the Bahamas/Caribbean. But confidence is pretty low, check back in a week if you are interested in that. The setup is likely to cause rough surf and some erosion along the east coast of Florida, though.

The biggest difference between this and what eventually became Hermine is that this wave is further south, and likely more influenced by equatorial Kelvin waves. How far north and when it gets early on will likely impact the odds of recurve, which I thing will go down if it does stay further south.

The Windwards may get a TS out of it around Wednesday, and also Venezuela and the southern Caribbean islands near south America, as well as Jamaica needs to watch it closely.

In short, keep watching it.


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IsoFlame
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: MikeC]
      #97000 - Sun Sep 25 2016 10:40 AM

The system will indeed be of increasing interest if it starts to get its act together mid-week. One thing I see day 6/7 GFS is the possibility for a 7-9 mb gradient to set up over the Florida peninsula from Jacksonville south to Miami next weekend, ramping up a rather stout onshore ENE/E flow by Sunday, quite possibly a prolonged period extending into the first week of October. Given the above, Florida's east coast may be in store for a significant coastal erosion event if 97L were to re-curve NW/N in the central Caribbean.

Edited by IsoFlame (Sun Sep 25 2016 10:43 AM)


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: W Africa Wave P39L [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97002 - Sun Sep 25 2016 03:24 PM

No models take this system into the western Caribbean anymore. Even given how far south this will be, the models are really digging a trough into the eastern US and western Atlantic, and parking it there for several days, eroding any ridging to the north.

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SouthGAwx
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97003 - Sun Sep 25 2016 11:23 PM

I can't help but feel like the global models are developing 97L a bit early, and then intensifying the cyclone too fast in the Caribbean. There has been much discussion on the eventual track of 97L -- but I caution everyone to not assume that the forecast of a major hurricane in the Caribbean Sea is in the bag. See the latest SHIPS/LGEM guidance below, indicating that the 72-96 hr time frame may be quite hostile. This particular model has been trending in that direction for a few runs now.

97L is almost completely void of convection tonight and with the rapid westward movement, organization will be slow to occur. If 97L does not setup a good "foundation" over the next 48 hours, it may enter the Caribbean Sea as a critically injured wave.

Take care,
-C.




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cieldumort
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97004 - Mon Sep 26 2016 01:45 AM

While the quick development and sharp hook to the right and out to sea makes it look like the models have a solid handle on 97L, there are actually several variables at play which could put the proverbial fly in the ointment at any time. As mentioned above, one of these is the potential for shear to be considerably stronger than an incipient or even fully developed tropical cyclone can deal with. Another, as can be seen in the image below, 97L is a large wave, and as such, slow to organize. In fact, a new wave "Pouch" has formed recently (P43L), leaving P39L way back in its wake. Additionally, there appear to be three vorticity lobes more or less surrounding the Pouch, but not necessarily rotating around the pouch, which suggests a level of independence that could further complicate consolidation.

Several runs of the HWRF as well as the Canadian have broken 97L into two or three tropical lows, usually with a primary getting very strong, and the others nearby, or lagging behind. This would not be impossible, but more often something (still infrequently) seen in the West Pac, from one of those truly massive tropical trofs or gyres out there. 97L is big, but not quite that big. So maybe less plausible than it would seem given several model runs advertising this outcome, but not to be written off - maybe two tropical lows, or a TC and a half would seem a more plausible scenario with this one. TBD ... still developing.

The take-away really being that while having near certain development odds, just a lot of known unknowns yet to be worked out.



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cieldumort
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97005 - Mon Sep 26 2016 06:30 PM

ECMWF and GFS 0z ensemble member runs from this morning generally painting two very different scenarios. This trend has continued so far today.

These two models and their individual members are largely thought of as the two top to go by, and until we have a more consolidated system to hang hats on, the spread may continue to be large. Look for better clarity once a tropical depression or storm has formed, and recon has flown in a few times. Until then, all interests from the Lesser Antilles to the Greater Antilles and points west and north from there may want to pay close attention.



Image credit: Dr. Jeff Masters, Wunderground.com


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97006 - Tue Sep 27 2016 05:03 AM

Still not developed, so take model runs with a bit of salt past about 4 days, but, here are the main oeprational ones:

GFS, Tropical Storm of Depression over the central Lesser Antilles by Wednesday afternoon, moves west into the Central Bahamas, becomes a hurricane before starting to turn north Saturday, then slams into Hati Sunday evening and weakens, over Turks and Caicos on Monday, then generally east of the US, possibly effects on Newfoundland in Canada. the Friday after it. This model si a bit suspect with the sharp north turn, but this is not impossible, the ensemble mean is a very more spread out, which indicates low confidence beyond 4 days or so.

Euro: Over the central lesser Antilles on Wednesday, Tropical Depression or Storm, by Friday, north of the southern Caribbean islands, but possibly a hurricane. Takes a bit of a southwesterly dive on Saturday, moves west on Sunday, avoids impacts with South America, stronger, Monday, slower, but moving north nnw, Tuesday, hits Jamaica from the south as a major hurricane, landfalls on Cuba Wednesday, then rides along it fairly slowly to the west northwest, and by the end of the run on late Thursday night it is just inshore over Cuba due south of West Palm Beach. Ensemble spread winds up this far out ranges from the Yucatan to the Eastern Bahamas, so a good deal of uncertainty past this Friday.

Birefly, CMC has it crossing Jamaica, eastern Cuba, central Bahamas, and then winds up over the outer banks on Wed, Oct 5th. Navgem, has it close enough to Florida as a hurricane to cause some issues, by the end ot the run. HWRF is very slow and still has it in the Central Caribbean (South of Haiti) by the end of its run on Sunday, but also as a strong Hurricane.

In short, without a developed system it is really too soon to tell beyond 4 days based on the ensemble spread, but the trend has been a bit west, enough to call odds about 50/50 for direct US impact right now. Land impacts would weaken the system, but Jamaica should be watching this one very closely. The lesser Antilles will likely see some tropical storm impacts (even if it doesn't quite make tropical storm status by the time it reaches them)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97007 - Tue Sep 27 2016 07:00 AM

97L is looking pretty healthy on this Water Vapor Image of 09/27 at 0656 EDT.

Image removed as it was not static - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 28 2016 05:53 PM)


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craigm
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97009 - Tue Sep 27 2016 10:48 AM

While watching and waiting here I was wondering which model suite did the best with Hermine?

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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doug
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: craigm]
      #97010 - Tue Sep 27 2016 12:18 PM

IMHO GFS did the best with Hermine by far. It and HWRF develop this into a 970(approx) cyclone and take it into the Caribbean and then turn it sharply north roughly along 73W over Haiti and continuing northward...thus these models and suites are based on a trough expected to exit the SE US 7-8 days from now to be very strong and pull the system due north. The ECMWF also expects a strong storm and takes the system further west and at the same intervals as GFS slows it as it is crossing over Cuba...
The accuracy of these solutions depends on the relative strength and location of that trough. I would think it will be 48-72 hours before the forecast tracks can be trusted.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #97011 - Tue Sep 27 2016 03:54 PM

12Z Euro has a 938mb Hurricane going to South Florida on Fri Oct 7th, after hitting Jamaica on Tuesday and eastern Cuba on Wednesday. GFS is still well east of Florida, odds still favor staying east of Florida, but there remains a great deal of uncertainty with this system that hasn't quite developed yet. (Recon is on its way to determine that, however)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97013 - Tue Sep 27 2016 04:28 PM

Recon did not find a closed circulation. The system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force and the thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97014 - Tue Sep 27 2016 08:02 PM

18Z GFS shoots then hurricane between Cuba and Haiti Monday morning, then moves north through the Central Bahamas as a Major Tuesday morning, continues north, it is just east of North Carolina on Friday the 7th, then hooks over Manhattan on Oct 8th, extratropical system, but still very powerful.

Ensemble spread isn't as large as yesterday but still runs from just west of Florida to well east of Florida in the longer range.

18Z hwrf gets it to cat 4, goes over Haiti in the Tiburon peninsula Sunday morning and winds up in the Windward passage by Monday morning heading north.

18Z GFDL gets it southwest of Jamaica by Sunday and hits cat 5.

Again, before the system gets developed still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast beyond 4 days or so.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97015 - Wed Sep 28 2016 01:48 AM

Some of he models really crank this system up but I can't see anything that would support rapid intensification. The system is going to encounter southwesterly windshear later on Wednesday into Thursday so I believe that development will be a little slower than advertised. 97L will likely become a tropical cyclone but I'm not convinced that it will reach major system status.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97016 - Wed Sep 28 2016 08:03 AM

Morning models, Euro has it moving over Jamaica from the south as a strong Hurricane on Tuesday, over eastern Cuba Wednesday, and ends up Just southeast of Andros island in the Bahamas as a major late Friday night, slowly moving.

6ZGFS misses Jamaica to the east, and slips over the eastern tip of Cuba Monday afternoon and moves north and has a landfall Thursday October 6th, near Morehead City, NC.

HWRF also misses Jamaica to the east and slams eastern Cuba on Monday morning (937mb Hurricane)


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berrywr
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97017 - Wed Sep 28 2016 09:21 AM

Let me throw my two cents in on this system - Currently (Wed - 9/28 - 9 am ET) there is an upper high directly over "Matthew". That said, windshear from the SW and S ramps up to 40 knots almost immediately to the system's track. Models bring this system to a snail's pace in about 48 hours and leaves it down there for another almost 48 hours SSE of Jamaica...reasonably between 3 and 4 days from now and then if our upper level players are where the models say they'll be a steering current between the upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic states and the upper level high to its east and northeast should be able to steer the system east of FL but the upper ridge sets up shop this time next week off the New England coast in essence forcing it back towards the United States eastern coast near NC as of this typing. There's no reason to believe we're looking at a Hurricane at that time. My concern is where in relationship to the upper level low/trough it will be where difluence could one; reduce shear and two, create a favorable pattern for convection. All of this for the moment is speculation. I'm not going to speculate what this system is and isn't going to do until I see enough development "vertically" which I then can interpret the model data. That system is pretty far south at the moment. Y'all have a nice day.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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windy15
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97018 - Wed Sep 28 2016 10:43 AM

Hello I am sorry to trouble you all but I have been watching this forum for a few days. I would just like some information. I realise this is not an official page but after going through Gonzalo in 2014 I tend to read these forums.
I now live in Barbados the country has closed down since last night and we are advised not to leave properties and prepare. (I am happy to do so) but out of intrest the conditions we are experiencing are nil and i look at the sat pictures and it looks like a cloud of rain to me. Now i know rain can cause damage etc. I just wanted peoples thoughts. Thank you xxx


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Kraig
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: windy15]
      #97019 - Wed Sep 28 2016 10:45 AM


Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Sep 2016 14:36 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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windy15
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Kraig]
      #97021 - Wed Sep 28 2016 11:05 AM

Thanks I will keep an eye out but fornthe last day every statment is just watch and wait

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doug
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: berrywr]
      #97024 - Wed Sep 28 2016 12:30 PM

One consistency that is current in the majority of the models is that the system stays east of Florida...that is a good sign. The variant in that seems to be relative strength of the system with those forecasting stronger earlier in the period more east of those with a weaker system
My question is from looking at the current North Atlantic Water Vapor sat. is how confident is anyone that the ULL that is dominating the upper US will drop southeasterly enough to create the steering northward that is predicted...the current trend of that feature seems to be easterly?

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Wed Sep 28 2016 12:49 PM)


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Rosy
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #97027 - Wed Sep 28 2016 12:49 PM

I've followed this board since Charley, and it has been a tremendous educational experience. I do have a question about Matthew's track. I've seen a sharp turn happen unexpectedly, but not one that's been predicted this far out. What's out there that would cause a turn like that to happen?



Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 28 2016 01:11 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Rosy]
      #97028 - Wed Sep 28 2016 01:16 PM

Quote:


I've followed this board since Charley, and it has been a tremendous educational experience. I do have a question about Matthew's track. I've seen a sharp turn happen unexpectedly, but not one that's been predicted this far out. What's out there that would cause a turn like that to happen?





Assuming this question is in regards to Matthew's forecast hook to the north, this has actually been advertised for several days by most models, with notable exceptions being the often highly accurate ECMWF, and the GFDL.

What is likely to turn Matthew to the right (north) later in the 5 day forecast period is the steering pattern created by an expectation of lower pressure over the Gulf of Mexico coupled with an eroding and/or retreating High in the western Atlantic. The space in between would be Matthew's red carpet out of the Caribbean.


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Rosy
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97029 - Wed Sep 28 2016 01:36 PM

Yes, that's what I was asking about. I just can't remember seeing such a crazy sharp turn predicted for a storm that far out. Thanks for explaining it.

--------------------
Survived:

Andrew '92 (Miami)
Charley '04 (Ft. Myers) (& weak side of Frances, Jeanne)
Wilma '05 (Ft. Myers)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97030 - Wed Sep 28 2016 01:40 PM

12Z GFS suggests Matthew will make landfall on the western tip of Haiti's Tiburon peninsula late Sunday night or Monday morning as a major hurricane. Over long island in the Bahamas on late Monday night, then stays out to sea. Ensembles haven't run on it, but the last Euro run at 0z, is further west and much slower.


The things to watch out for are how fast Matthew is moving and when the northern turn occurs, slower moving storm would allow for more of a turn back west, fast mover would kick it out to sea. NHC's cone is fairly spot on, if anything it may be a bit too far west. It's prudent to keep watching it closely in the Caribbean.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97031 - Wed Sep 28 2016 05:39 PM

The Euro EPS ensemble is very broad from Western Gulf to Just west of Bermuda in 10 days. Highlights the uncertainty, mean is roughtly Yucatan to Bermuda, slight nod to just east of Florida, the model divergence begins around Friday evening, up until that point it seems pretty good. In short we may not be able to rule out many areas until late this weekend.

Parts of Jamaica/Hati/Easter Cuba may need to prepare for a hurricane soon..


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Joeyfl
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97033 - Wed Sep 28 2016 08:28 PM

Interesting to note on the 500mb linear trend from GFS has been showing slight shifts west with upper low in great Lakes this weekend and gradually building Ridge north of Matthew this weekend. Whether this trend continues is question and might allow for some adjustments to left in future model runs. While European has shifted right in its 12Z run its enesmble has a smattering of possibilities 7 to 10 days out from gulf to Bermuda. Lots of time to watch...

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Joeyfl]
      #97037 - Thu Sep 29 2016 06:48 AM

Quick summary this morning, the GFS hasn't changed much and keeps it out to sea past the Bahamas, although it does take it slightly closer to North Carolina than before next Thursday, although shifting east of Jamaica (although still uncomfortably close) and going over the eastern tip of Cuba on Monday.

Euro operational is further east, and takes it over Haiti on Tuesday, generally trending east. The ensembles have also shifted east, but still are quite spread out. (Which still is a great measure of the level of uncertainty that far out)

Takeaway, Haiti, Jamaica, eastern Cuba may be in for a hurricane Monday/Tuesday, as well as parts of the central or Eastern Bahamas, beyond that too soon to tell, but the trends are good it stays east of US currently, but will have to be watched to see when the "turn" occurs and how fast/slow the system is moving.


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Joeyfl
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97038 - Thu Sep 29 2016 09:32 AM

Shear really putting a hurting on Matthew today. LLC almost exposed on Westside as it out runs deep convection to east thanks to 25 to 30knts of Southwest shear. This just throws in another curve ball to forecast. How will this make matthew react? I suspect with more low level trades may push LLC vs mid and upper levels if this gets to far displaced. Nothing is set in stone yet while trends were bit further east this morning a good thing for southeast US it still needs to be watched closely.

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doug
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97039 - Thu Sep 29 2016 10:00 AM

As things presently seem to be playing out it is doubtful the storm will get past 73 west. However the forward motion to the west is likely to reduce from the present 13 mph. The influence of the upper low is being felt as far south as the W/ Caribbean area west of 75 W. and is producing a general NNE flow and the anticyclonic push from the SW.US is progressing at a slower pace to the east and so is unlikely to neutralize the North-northeasterly steering flow before it is felt by the storm. Once it is caught in that flow I think it goes with it as there is little chance that an interruption in that flow from the west will materialize for several days yet. Just my opinion...

--------------------
doug


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IsoFlame
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #97041 - Thu Sep 29 2016 11:44 AM

I don't think the UL will turn Matthew as radically and as soon due to a weaker hurricane (than forecast) favoring the left side of the cone. Consequently, a more gradual turn late Monday would put Jamacia and the eastern half of Cuba in the crosshairs for flooding rains from the copious moisture on the east side of Matthew.

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NewWatcher
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97042 - Thu Sep 29 2016 01:51 PM

Quote:

I don't think the UL will turn Matthew as radically and as soon due to a weaker hurricane (than forecast) favoring the left side of the cone. Consequently, a more gradual turn late Monday would put Jamacia and the eastern half of Cuba in the crosshairs for flooding rains from the copious moisture on the east side of Matthew.




This may not be true anymore. Matthew was just declared a Hurricane by the NHC 24 hours earlier than previously predicted. A stronger storm will more than likely turn sooner. It is all up to the High now.... does it build in west or not.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Joeyfl
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: NewWatcher]
      #97044 - Thu Sep 29 2016 02:52 PM

Shift west in both GFS and European 12Z runs hopefully high altitude mission tonight will help.

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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97045 - Thu Sep 29 2016 03:11 PM




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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97049 - Fri Sep 30 2016 07:30 AM

Model summary from 0z euro and 6z GFS:

Euro has just off the western tip of Cuba Tuessday then briefly over eastern Cuba, over crooked Island in the Bahamas on Wednesday, then out to sea missing Bermuda to the north.

6z GFS Right over Jamaica from the south Monday, then into eastern Cuba, over Nassau on Wednesday, then out to sea, missing Bermuda to the north.

With this Florida nor the US wouldn't see any direct impact from Matthew other than strong rip currents and very edge fringes of the bands along the coastline.

The ensembles are not as widespread as before, but it doesn't make trivial the potential risk to Florida yet, although it has been trending away.

Now that Matthew is a cat 2, and possibly on its way to major, Jamaica should be getting early preps done for possible impact on Monday, and definitely when watches or warnings are placed up. Cuba and Bahamas should be on high alert to move for preparations, and Florida should just watch to see exactly where the storm turns north and how fast it is moving. Odds favor it staying east of Florida, but they are still not strong odds. However since Matthew is a well developed hurricane, the models tend to be more accurate if there is decent forward motion. A lot will depend on when and how the forecast turn to the north happens.


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IsoFlame
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: NewWatcher]
      #97051 - Fri Sep 30 2016 09:36 AM

So much for a "weaker hurricane"!!! I still favor the left side of the cone (through day 3) given that Matthew is currently tracking WSW/W at a fair clip, likely to stay south of 15N when crossing 75W, delaying the UL's northward pull until later Sunday/early Monday.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97052 - Fri Sep 30 2016 09:52 AM

HWRF takes it over Jamaica early Monday morning as a 947 mb hurricane which is typically associated with category 3 storms (it also shows some dry air entering it) and over Nassau in the Bahamas Tuesday afternoon as a 944 mb hurricane (entering cat 4 territory), then starts to move it away from land.

This system could be devastating for Jamaica, East Cuba and parts of the Bahamas.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97054 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:10 AM

The westernmost extent of the current model runs is about 72 west (timing around 7-8pm tonight), if it gets beyond that point to the west then chances increase for a US impact. The rapid strengthening was forecast somewhat by the HWRF, but not so much by the GFS, deeper influences may push it a bit west also, although perhaps not enough to make it to Florida.


Jamaica, however, risk is growing greatly. The last hurricane to hit Jamaica was Sandy in 2012.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97058 - Fri Sep 30 2016 12:15 PM

12Z GFS run moving now: Eastern Jamaica gets a Major Monday, Nassau gets hit hard on Wednesday also. Stays east of Florida, bit a bit closer than earlier runs. Starts moving to the northeast on Thursday (GFS has another low forming northeast of Matthew then, which is odd). I think no real change, a bit closer, odds a bit up for a SE impact, but still favors east. Ultra long range shows the system hooking back into Maine on Sun, October 9th.

CMC also shifted west.

Interesting trend, but not enough to be too concerned (for the US), yet, but confidence is lower than ever.

Bahamas though...


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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97059 - Fri Sep 30 2016 01:29 PM

Even though steering currents are starting to slow down now that Matthew is feeling less intense trade winds while the Gulf Trof - Bermuda High combo are still positioned too far to the NW & NE respectively for Matthew to feel, steering currents have not collapsed, and in fact, are now starting to trend more southerly ... something that if Matthew were to follow for a day or two could easily impact future track and intensity in a meaningful way ...



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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97061 - Fri Sep 30 2016 01:45 PM

Significant differences continue to exist between the ECMWF ensemble members and the GFS ensemble members. It is noteworthy that many of these have also already initialized Matthew as too weak and/or too north of current intensity/location.

Also, as Dr. Jeff Masters of Wunderground points out, given large scale uncertainties, the tight clustering of GFS ensembles late in the period could actually be an indication of a systemic error in that model.

The take-away is this: Multiple players with sizeable inherent uncertainties of their own, coupled with the possibility of model weaknesses, are affecting the quality of the model outputs, and thus, the official forecast cones. Florida, the east coast, and indeed, even the Gulf, are still at risk here, and should not take their eyes off of things.


Image credit: cfanclimate and wunderground


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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Joeyfl]
      #97062 - Fri Sep 30 2016 01:53 PM

Recon now found a 957 mb reading.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97063 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:11 PM

12Z HWRF 951mb hurricane into Jamaica on Monday morning, eastern Cuba, Tuesday, then Long Island in the Bahamas late Tuesday moving NE.

6Z GFDL: 954mb hurricane into Jamaica on Monday morning, Cuba early Tuesday morning, Andros Island Tuesday night 963mb, ends 30 miles offshore cape Canaveral 955mb (Cat 3) Wednesday morning.


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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97064 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:33 PM

Hazel a fluke? Not so fast, as history shows otherwise.


Image credit: David Roth


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97065 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:34 PM

12Z Euro still running, but it approaches Jamaica Monday morning, bumps northeast, through the windward passage (almost like it's intentionally avoiding land) then heads northwest into the Bahamas, over the Central Bahamas Thursday morning, slows down a lot there also. 931mb storm (Cat4) Then starts moving back northeast, slowly on Saturday Oct 8. It stalls there until the end of the run.

This is a pretty troubling run since it basically increases uncertainty again. It's more or less stalled over the Bahamas Monday-(at least) Sunday with this run as a Cat 3/4/5 storm.



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Happy Birthday Tazmanian93
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97066 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:45 PM

Thinking about what the Bahamas went through with Joaquin almost the same time last year

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97068 - Fri Sep 30 2016 03:47 PM

The big change in the later period on the euro is the sudden removal of the pesky upper low over the northeast US. The last several runs of the euro and other models have had that upper energy sitting there, helping to eventually steer Matthew out to sea. If that energy gets pulled out sooner and a ridge builds in instead, that's a big deal. One possible result, as the euro shows, is a turn nw over the Bahamas and a stall.

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Keith B
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #97071 - Fri Sep 30 2016 04:51 PM

Matthew is now a CAT 4. Ouch!!

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
AEC Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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Random Chaos
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #97073 - Fri Sep 30 2016 05:27 PM

As the storm continues to strengthen and the central pressure falls, we should be passing the 940mb barrier before long. There is substantial difference in the steering currents in the <940mb analysis than in all lesser layers - substantially more southerly motion. This could throw a big wrench in the model forecasts.

940-949mb steering currents (current):


<940 steering currents (probably later tonight or tomorrow morning):


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MichaelA
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97074 - Fri Sep 30 2016 07:06 PM

I'm not entirely confident in the forecast tracking for Matthew even though the models are all fairly consistent in that sharp, northerly turn. My lack of confidence rises from the possibilities that Matthew might stay so far South that the expected trough simply bypasses it. If that should happen, the northward turn would be more gradual or even not happen at all. I'll certainly be keeping a close watch on the motion of Matthew over the next few days and, hopefully, the track consensus will verify for us in Florida and elsewhere in the US. However, Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and The Bahamas may not be so fortunate.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 3/0/0


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OrlandoDan
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MichaelA]
      #97075 - Fri Sep 30 2016 07:31 PM

All reliable data points indicate a turn to he north. It's a matter of when and how far west he turns. Not saying there should not be great caution for Florida. Everyone should watch this diligently.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97083 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:19 PM

Early 0z guidance shifted a bit west tonight, last two frames of http://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2016&storm=14 shows it fairly well. No US landfalls there, but the end of runs does bring it much closer to the SE coast than before. Init point is already a bit too far north though.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MichaelA]
      #97085 - Fri Sep 30 2016 11:55 PM

0z GFS is running, a little bit slower moving than before, landfall Jamaica as a cat 4/5 on Monday evening (vs earlier runs where it was Monday midday)

Cuba landfall late Tuesday morning (6 hours later than the 18Z run).

Just east of Andros island Wednesday morning. Track is basically same as the 18Z run, just 6 hours behind.

Late Thursday night, 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral, cat 4/5.

Stays offshore and curves along with coast through SC Friday afternoon.

Just offshore Morehead City, NC Saturday morning, Still Cat 4, clips Cape Hatteras,

Late Saturday afternoon, just offshore Delaware, cat 3.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, landfall Rhode Island, Cat 2.

Not a good trend. This would force some hard decisions for Emergency Management and Evacuations along many areas of the east coast if it verified with that intensity.

If it comes to evacuations, I'd only recommend it if you are along barrier islands if you are inland and not immediately adjacent to the intracoastal, I wouldn't evacuate, especially if evacuations wind up covering a large swath of coastline. But regardless listen to local officials/media on that call. Lets hope it trends away from land in the next few model runs. Be aware, but watch to see where the storm winds up after Cuba.


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Robert
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97086 - Sat Oct 01 2016 01:13 AM

100 miles east of cape

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Robert]
      #97091 - Sat Oct 01 2016 07:37 AM

After a shift west in the GFS, the 0Z Euro did a shift east, with the storm heading northeast during the day Monday, avoiding Jamaica but going right over the western tip of Haiti in the Tiburon peninsula over the Turks and Caicos in the Bahams then northeast going directly over Bermuda october 9th, and then going out to sea, This keeps it well east of the US, and is a much better scenario for Jamaica, and the US. (Not so much for Haiti and the Turks & Caicos and Bermuda)

The 6z GFS is very similar to the 0Z GFS, with another 30-40 miles east away from the coast at its approach to Florida, hopefully the trend away keeps occurring, however it still goves over Eastern Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, through the western Bahamas, clips the outer banks Sat, October 8th , and then landfalls in Rhode Island on Sun Oct 9th.

0z HWRF stays east of Jamaica, landfalls on Eastern Cuba, goes over Long Island in the Bahamas and heads northeast, the 6Z GFDL also does this, which is a good shift east from yesterday.


Hopefully easterly trends continue today. If we start seeing northerly motion by this afternoon or early evening things may be better off for Jamaica. Odds still favoring the system staying east of Florida, but it may be close. Continue to watch. The possibility it stalls near the Bahamas is also still there.





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IsoFlame
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Robert]
      #97092 - Sat Oct 01 2016 07:52 AM

If the forecast track for Matthew to be a major hurricane slowly moving NNW parallel to and just offshore from Florida's east coast pans out, the big story for Florida will be multiple tidal cycles of severe coastal erosion from the Cape north to Fernandina Beach until Matthew gains latitude north of the FL/GA line and wind backs offshore, gradually knocking down the huge breaking surf.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97094 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:08 AM

Given some of the latest model runs,Mathew has our attention here in little Rhode Island.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Oct 01 2016 09:10 AM)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97096 - Sat Oct 01 2016 12:29 PM

Don't like that at the end of the forecast period it moves a little more west,and it goes back to a major hurricane.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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madmumbler
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97097 - Sat Oct 01 2016 12:56 PM

Is the reason Matthew is so lopsided right now with a lot of convection in that NE quadrant because it's so close to land on its southern side?

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97098 - Sat Oct 01 2016 02:00 PM

Quote:

Is the reason Matthew is so lopsided right now with a lot of convection in that NE quadrant because it's so close to land on its southern side?


.

No it is just going through in eye replacement.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97101 - Sat Oct 01 2016 04:51 PM

Northward movement happened before it reached 74W, which bodes well for staying east of Florida, but not as good for the Carolinas. Although it is better for Jamaica as it won't get a direct landfall if the forecast track holds. Cuba/Bahamas still will see the brunt of it, regardless. Hopefully it will
continue to trend east away from the US, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the system. NHC cannot rule out Florida, still.

One thing to watch out for is if to see if the northward motion is "real" or just an effect of the cyclonic loop, if it does another loop or moves more westward things may change. We should know the answer to that over the next several hours.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97103 - Sat Oct 01 2016 05:22 PM

I think that by next week all eyes will be on southern New England.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97104 - Sat Oct 01 2016 06:48 PM

When is the next Recon scheduled? I'm assuming (which I should never do) that once it passes Jamaica and heads into Cuban airspace they will not be allowed to fly into Matthew until it passes the restricted air space. I've been on here for a long time but I've never asked this question: does Cuba have a similar plane that flies into the eye of the hurricane and relays that information to the US? Sorry if that sounds like a stupid question but I was just wondering.

Edited by Colleen A. (Sat Oct 01 2016 06:50 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97105 - Sat Oct 01 2016 06:56 PM

18Z GFS run starts it moving northwest immediately clips the very western tip of Haiti late Monday night, then over eastern Cuba. Rides up through the central Bahamas, turns northeast east of Mytle beach, clips or just east of Hatteras, October 9th, landfall Buzzards Bay, MA, on Monday October 10th. Very far out and likely will change again.

Takeaways, Florida threat continues to slowly decrease, still a good threat to north Carolina and the Northeast, but many days for that to verify. Nowhere is in the all clear yet, though.


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CoalCracker
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97106 - Sat Oct 01 2016 06:59 PM

I don't believe that Cuba has any aircraft sophisticated enough to do reliable weather missions. The Cuban government usually grants permission for NOAA to fly weather related recon in Cuban air space. Currently, NOAA is "seeking a memorandum of understanding with the Cuban government that would give the operations center blanket clearance to fly over the island nation."

Details at the following link:

http://www.tbo.com/news/cuba/new-cuba-talks-may-speed-work-of-tampa-based-storm-trackers-20160818/


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Random Chaos
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97107 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:00 PM

Saw that AF304 just took off to head into Matthew, but looks like it turned around and went back to St. Croix? Anyone know what's going on?

Edit: found out why:

" SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0024Z SUN OCT 02 2016

THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ISSUE PROCESSING GOES-EAST DATA AT THE
NESDIS-SOCC. THIS IS IMPACTING RECEIPT OF GOES-EAST ON VARIOUS
PLATFORMS INCLUDING AWIPS. NESDIS IS INVESTIGATING.

SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP "

With GOES East down right now, they can't get fixes for the storm, so they had to turn the flight around. Don't know if they are going to still try to run it tonight when GOES East comes back up, or not.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Oct 01 2016 09:09 PM)


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EMS
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97109 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:08 PM

Looks like we have lost satellite too.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #97112 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:17 PM

I find it unsettling that we have lost a satellite. I'm sure we will reconnect.

(Post edited to remove unrelated remarks.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 02 2016 12:59 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97115 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:55 AM

The outage was caused by a data transmission problem with the satellite and it has been resolved. The aborted Recon mission was not related to the satellite - it was a mechanical problem. The last few recent satellite images imply a motion that is more to the west northwest but that may just be a temporary movement.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97118 - Sun Oct 02 2016 03:49 AM

0Z GFS Run slips direct landfall just west of Haiti, but does bring the bad weather over Haiti (including the eastern blob of convection) late Monday night. Landfall eastern tip of Cuba Tuesday morning, Right up the Central Bahamas, over Nassau Wednesday night. Closest to the Outer Banks on Saturday Morning, but shifted east from earlier runs, Eventually landfalls in Halifax, Nova Scotia on Sunday night October 10th.

0zEuro does show landfall on the western tip of Haiti, but on Tuesday, bumps a bit northeast over Crooked Island in the Bahams then moves northwest through the Central Bahamas and winds up close to north Carolina on Sunday October 10th, but no landfall. This run is much slower than the GFS and west of earlier Euro runs. After that it heads out to sea.

Matthew tonight is slightly west of the forecast track this morning, which could shift the near term a bit left, but still likely to avoid a direct landfall with Jamaica. This system is large and powerful, so even a miss would still see strong weather, particularly just east of the eye, still would be preferable to a direct hit.

In short The east coast, Florida through Canada will need to continue to monitor Matthew closely uncertainty remains very high.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97121 - Sun Oct 02 2016 08:22 AM

6Z GFS shifted west again, Midway between Jamaica and Haiti Over eastern tip of Cuba on Midday Tuesday. spends about 36 hours over the Bahamas running up all the middle Bahama islands. Landfall Morehead City, NC late F1riday night. Then rapidly moves to a landfall Saturday afternoon.
The storm remains a Major until after landfall in NC.

HWRF is further east, and keeps it out to sea, GFDL brings it close to North Carolina before the run ends.

Official track is east of the Euro & GFS, but still pretty close, I suspect the track may shift west again at 11AM, especially with the more westerly position recon found this morning..





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ftlaudbob
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97125 - Sun Oct 02 2016 10:16 AM

The new invest may keep Mathew from going out to sea.Biggest impacts I think will be NC and Southern New England as far as the U.S. goes.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97129 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:25 PM

12Z GFS now curves it away before hitting North Carolina, so no NC landfall this run, but it does get close on Saturday. East of Jamaica, over tip of Haiti, through a good number of the Central Bahama Islands, including over Nassau.

Main reason this time is what is currently invest 98L weakening the ridge enough for it to get pulled east before landfall. Incredibly complex and uncertainty is high. Slight edge to staying off the US coast, but very very slight. The GFS eventually does have a landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia/


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97131 - Sun Oct 02 2016 01:38 PM

Recon passes are showing the system is recovering a bit today, seems to have stronger winds again. and moving northwest..

edit: 2PM advisory out with 145MPH winds and moving northwest. Should have waited a minute more to post.

And just to reiterate, Florida east coast is STILL not in the clear.




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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97133 - Sun Oct 02 2016 02:29 PM

12Z Euro with another odd initialization (it looks like the blob east of Matthew is confusing it), but clips Western Haiti Tuesday (maybe just east of the east tip of Cuba also) morning, then over the southeastern Bahamas rides up just east of the Bahamas Wed-Fri, Ridge builds over new jersey, offshore Georgia Saturday morning, moving nnw, as it approaches North Carolina it starts moving northeast then loops back to the ese.

12Z Ukmet does have Matthew over Cape Canaveral on Thursday, the only real model to show a direct Florida impact, but hasn't performed very well.



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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97139 - Sun Oct 02 2016 05:51 PM

Per the current forecast, beginning Tuesday morning Matthew is shown to gradually reduce max sustained winds. As a general statement, when major hurricanes lose top end speed does the overall wind field expand in a similar fashion as when a tropical system becomes extra-tropical, although not likely to the same extent? On Thursday evening, Matthew is currently forecasted to be about 220 statute miles east of the Palm Beaches, and currently TS winds extend outwards 207st. mi to the NW and about 115st.mi to the SW. It won't take much of an expansion to put the Palm Beaches into a TS Warning area. I know much can change but was just curious how the wind field may change. Thanks all!

--------------------
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97140 - Sun Oct 02 2016 06:20 PM

18Z GFS is similar to the 12Z, with the ridge weakening toward the end of the run, Keeping it out to sea (From the US anyway, Halifax, NS still gets it). So nothing much changes tonight.

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EMS
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97143 - Sun Oct 02 2016 09:45 PM

Last few frames on satellite seem to indicate it has stalled again.

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #97147 - Mon Oct 03 2016 05:01 AM

The theme for the 0z Models run today: Shift West, much closer to US..

GFS: Tuesday orning, barely offshore the west tip of Haiti's Tiburon peninsula, eyewall and convection to the east goes over Haiti. Then clips Eastern Cuba. Then rides up through most of the Bahamas (east of Abaco) Wed-Thursday Saturday morning begins to affect Noarth Carolina, western eyewall passes over Morehead City, and rides along outer banks to the northeast, no complete landfall however. Landfall Cape Cod, then moves northwest over Boston, Monday October 17th.

Euro similar to GFS but Slower, Bahamas Wed-Thursday 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday Slowly moves to the east over the weekend then back southeast on Tuesday October 11th. Very very slow. Note: The Euro Ensemble mean (EPS) does have a landfall or Cape Canaveral clip on the space coast Friday. If this would occur the western eyewall would impact Brevard and Volusia and hurricane and tropical storm force winds felt further inland.

HWRF moves the storm east of the main line of Bahama islands. GFDL ends with it nearing North Carolina.

All in all, still in the same boat, threat to Florida cannot be ruled out (if anything its more uncertain than yesterday), odds favor it stay east of US, but a very shaky odds. Not a good run for the Bahamas.




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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97148 - Mon Oct 03 2016 06:25 AM

6Z GFS: Central Bahamas Wednesday after moving just west of the the tip of Haiti and over the eastern tip of Cuba. North end of the Bahamas by Thursday (generally faster than the Euro by a day) Bends east away from the Carolinas (closest approach Midday Saturday). Maine landfall Sunday night. Slight shift east for GFS.

The 6Z GFDL run takes Matthew near Morehead City, NC on Saturday morning. 6Z HWRF gets it very close to Hatteras Saturday.


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97151 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:21 AM

From Mike Ventrice:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081

Image:

"Not good. This AM's ECMWF High probability cluster with a BIG statement. All members now track #Matthew into Florida at a Cat 4 intensity."


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Reaper
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97152 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:32 AM

Mike,

Is there any additional data that substantiates this information provided in this tweet?

Edited by Reaper (Mon Oct 03 2016 10:33 AM)


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #97153 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:36 AM

Quote:

Mike,

Is there any additional data that substantiates this information provided in this tweet?




I think it's mainly based on weather balloon soundings that show the ridge is stronger than expected. It'll likely play out in the 12Z full model runs.

High probability members are the previous run's ensemble members with the best match for the actual 8am initial conditions. That's all this means.


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97154 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:49 AM

This is a heart in throat moment for central Florida's east coast. Waiting on 12Z and 11am NHC update to kick in next level of SERIOUS preparation for Matthew.

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97155 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:19 AM

Quote:

This is a heart in throat moment for central Florida's east coast. Waiting on 12Z and 11am NHC update to kick in next level of SERIOUS preparation for Matthew.




We probably won't get a serious idea on how close it may/may not come until late tomorrow. (maybe not even until Wednesday) Right now I think the NHC's track is pretty good.


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IsoFlame
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97156 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:55 AM

Given the 11am NHC day 4/5 cone and expanding 34kt wind radii (out 200 miles west of the center), the likelihood of experiencing tropical storm force winds along the east central Florida coast is increasing. TS Julia's track just inland up the Florida east coast in September produced an hour or so of sustained 40-50 mph winds in Daytona Beach Shores one block from the Atlantic Ocean. If latest official forecast pans out with Matthew, could see a longer (12hr?) period of similar wind speeds, with gusts in the 60 mph range. If future updates to Matthew's projected NNW track from 26-30N latitude shift west of 77.5W longitude, the potential for a closer brush from the Cape northward by the slow-moving hurricane parallel to the coast just offshore considerably raises concern. As previously posted, I think the big story for Florida's east coast will be serious coastal erosion from a strong/prolonged onshore fetch associated with a strong slow moving hurricane.

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97157 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:00 PM

12Z GFS : Trend West, stronger ridging

Clips or just West of the tip of Haiti Tomorrow morning, Over eastern tip of Cuba late Tomorrow night. Rides up through the Bahamas Wed noon-Thursday night. Over Freeport, a good bit (100-120 miles) west of the earlier run.

100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday morning still moving nnw. Friday night offshore Charleston SE by about 100 miles, moving north.

Landfall NC on Saturday morning near SC/NC border, rides just inland to the Outer Banks and exits back into the Atlantic moving ene near Nags Head, NC.

Another landfall on Cape Code, Sunday midday, then one more in Maine Sunday night.


The UKMET brings the system into Florida this run. Landfall near Melbourne, riding just inside the coast up to Jacksonville and continues into North Carolina.



...


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97158 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:15 PM

Quote:

12Z GFS : Trend West

Clips or just West of the tip of Haiti Tomorrow morning, Over eastern tip of Cuba late Tomorrow night. Rides up through the Bahamas Wed noon-Thursday night. Over Freeport, a good bit (100-120 miles) west of the earlier run.

100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday morning still moving nnw. Friday night offshore Charleston SE by about 100 miles, moving north.

Landfall NC on Saturday morning near Caswell beach, rides just inland to the Outer Banks.



...




I think the odds of me being impacted here in Rhode Island are going up.

--------------------

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Steve H1
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97159 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:38 PM

Yes, the west trend is upsetting to say the least. Just got my roof repair finished 2 weeks ago. Way too close for comfort. ugh.

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Owlguin
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Steve H1]
      #97160 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:43 PM

Agree. We'll see what the Euro does, but the GFS track would probably give us hurricane conditions along much of the Florida coast. Freeport is only 87 miles from here.

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #97161 - Mon Oct 03 2016 01:46 PM

GEFS ensemble much closer to Florida, in range to get possible hurricane force winds along the coast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...os=0&ypos=0

12Z HWRF: Morehead CIty, NC

12Z GFDL 80-100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday, landfall Myrtle Beach, SC Saturday morning.


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97162 - Mon Oct 03 2016 02:02 PM

12Z Euro running...
24 hours, over the western tip of Haiti (Tiburon Peninsula)
48 hours SW of Crooked Island in the Bahamas (west of the 12Z yesterday position)
72 hours (Thursday Morning): Over Northern Bahamas (100miles west of earlier runs)
96 hours (Friday Morning) 100 miles east southeast of Cape Canaveral (120miles west of earlier runs) close enough for watches/warnings.
120 hours (Saturday Morning) 60 miles southeast of Charleston
144 hours (Sunday Morning ) Rockets eastward 80 miles se of Morehead City, NC
Out to sea beyond that.

Euro Summary Stays east of US, but close enough for Tropical Storm force winds, would force warnings up along coast if it verified, at some points it gets as close as 50-60 miles from shore. Overall trend, west. 5pm track will likely shift a bit west.

If watches were needed for Florida, you could see those issued late Tuesday or Wednesday. Thursday/Friday would be the closest to Florida approach. For those in the Carolinas, keep watch any impacts wouldn't be until Saturday.


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97169 - Mon Oct 03 2016 05:32 PM

Staying offshore keeps the east FL coast on the weak side of the storm. As long as he stays small hurricane forces winds should (hopefully) not reach us. Guess the models are seeing a stronger ridge. The forecast for Matt has become this snake like path of wiggling back and forth between the islands. I knew the straight N thing wasn't going to hold, but honestly assumed a weaker ridge and a curve to the east after Haiti. The slow down in forward motion hasn't helped as its given time for ridge to build.

--------------------
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97170 - Mon Oct 03 2016 05:43 PM

18Z GFS:

Clipping over western tip of Haiti Tomorrow morning... Over eastern Cuba late tomorrow night,

back in the water by Wednesday around 7AM. Ridging appears stronger...


Over Grand Bahama Island Thursday morning, west. Just east of the Bimini islands later Thursday. 30 miles east of West Palm Beach Thursday night.

Friday AM (EARLY) 10-20 miles offshore port St. Lucie.

About the same offshore cape canaveral later that morning. (930mb, Cat 4)

Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday morning, then along SC coast for a bit before exiting. But generally scrapes coast with the western eyewall from FL to NC.

This could force coastal evacuations from Florida to North Carolina.



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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97171 - Mon Oct 03 2016 07:35 PM

18Z GEFS (GFS Ensembles) West with a concentration over Florida (mean is the operational GFS just offshore)

HWRF: Stays comfortably east of Florida, but goes through the Bahamas, ends run just south of SC/NC border.

GFDL: Stays east of Florida, but close enough for Hurricane Force winds along the coast, tropical storm force well inland.


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97179 - Mon Oct 03 2016 08:58 PM

If the 18Z GFS were to verify the eastern half of Central Florida could see 80mph winds (better chance and possibly higher the closer to the coast you get)

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97182 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:54 PM

I have cousins down from NJ staying at Disney (where else). I've texted them/FB them that they really need to stay on top of this storm. I'm not liking the westward movement at all. Is this a temporary movement? I know when I get messages from certain people that I need to pay attention. You know who you are & I thank you for it. I don't want to alarm them unless actually needed...what would your advice be?

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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97183 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:01 PM

Would that include Tampa? I live in Lakeland..

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97185 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:34 PM

If Disney, Universal or Sea World were to close it would probably be Friday, but only if it got far enough west to cause hurricane conditions this far inland, which is doubtful. It'll probably be open, but very light crowds (since the weather will still be pretty ugly)

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97186 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:35 PM

0Z GFS Run: Init: On or Just west of the tip of the Haitian Tiburon Peninsula in the morning. Over eastern tip of Cuba tomorrow (Tuesday) night.

Offshore north of Cuba early Wednesday morning.

Just west of Long island in the Bahamas midday wednesday. over Nassau early predawn Thursday, Over Freeport Midday thursday.

Just East of west palm Thursday night.

Friday early morning 25 miles offshore Palm Bay. (934mb)

Friday late morning 25 miles offshore Daytona

Starts turning more north away from the coast, but approaches Charleston, SC early Saturday morning.

Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday morning. ~ 942mb

rides inland through SC and NC and exits in the outer banks by Nags Head Sunday morning.



Run still going...



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Random Chaos
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97187 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:35 PM

Compare the latest IR to one from 4 hours ago. Looks like it is going annular, though the transition hasn't completed yet:

Current IR, nearly annular:


IR from 4 hours ago, classic hurricane:


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97189 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:05 AM

It will be interesting though to see if the Turnpike / Beeline / E-W is turned one directional Westbound / Northbound to facilitate evacuations out of South Florida and the Space Coast. I seem to recall that was a change Florida EM made a few years ago following Floyd and some of our other doozies, to ease traffic congestion northbound, especially on the 2 lane stretches. If the Turnpike and other Central Florida tollroads are turned one directional starting Thursday, then the attractions might close out of necessity because of traffic management issues.

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: RichardR]
      #97191 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:30 AM

0z UKMET landfall Cape Canaveral the rides inland up through Jacksonville. Very close to the coast from West Palm to the cape, though.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97194 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:16 AM

Every major overnight (0z) model run - same track. Rakes the FL coast up to landfall in SC; then goes just barely inland until Delmarva and on up the coast into New England. GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET. Only HWRF was a little further east. 6z GFS is verifying to continue this trend, though further east in the late time period, missing New England.

And this storm's annular. Ignoring the convective blob to the east, the entire rest of the storm is classic annular - large eye, large CDO, no spiral bands.

Here's night "visible"



And look at this incredible microwave pass from last hour:



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Random Chaos
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97195 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:26 AM

Here are the 6z tracks - continuing the tight trend first seen in 0z:



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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97196 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:27 AM

Overnight Euro run: Same story as GFS more or less, timing similar, Just offshore (within 50 miles or less) of the East coast of Central Florida Friday morning. then riding near the east coast all the way up to North Carolina through Sunday. As a major hurricane 3/4 (at least near Florida if not longer)

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97197 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:40 AM

0z phase runs from HWRF & GFDL paint a very similar picture, but with the GFDL bringing quite a lot more hurricane force winds onshore, all the way from southeast Florida to the OBX, and a wider tropical cyclone overall. These runs also suggest a real surge threat along the southeast coast on all surge-prone locations in the path.

Maximum sustained winds at 925mb in both runs about 165 knots (reduction to about 150+/- knots at the surface - solidly Cat 5)




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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97198 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:46 AM

For discussion accuracy, Mattew is not annular. The very micrwoave pass included above from 0926z this morning shows the spiral bands W-NW-N and E-SE-S-SW-W.

SHIPS is also not analyzing as annular

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


It is however worth noting that in many respects, Matthew has been behaving a lot like an annular hurricane for much of its existence as a major.


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Random Chaos
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97199 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:53 AM

Thanks for clarifying Ciedumort!

I wasn't paying close attention to the microwave pass.


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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97204 - Tue Oct 04 2016 08:28 AM

Quote:

Just offshore (within 50 miles or less) of the East coast of Central Florida Friday morning.




Not a fan of these shallow angle / coastal rider type 'canes. They tend to spread damage over a much wider area then straight-in type storms where the impact is direct and focused (around the eye wall) to a limited section of coast. The good news is as long as Matt stays small-ish the hurricane force winds could remain offshore. The bad news is pretty much the entire eastern US shoreline is going to be subject to TS forces winds over the next few days. Plus any slight shift west changes the wind effect greatly given the projection of a Cat 3 spinning offshore in the warm Gulf Stream current.

Model guidance is coming into a tight cluster, so confidence is high that the 3 day track looks to verify. At some point (late Weds?) will have to make the dreaded panels / no panels call. For SFL looks to be all day Thursday event.

--------------------
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David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Kraig
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97216 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:18 PM


Looks like the eastern eyewall took a direct hit on the 7,000' peak in Haiti. Eye completely filled in and may see some erratic movement over the next few hours.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-long.html

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #97220 - Tue Oct 04 2016 01:30 PM

Very busy.. .quick model rundown

12Z GFS: About the same as before, but stays off the NC Coastline
12Z GFDL: Big change : Landfall Boca Raton, friday morning borderline cat4/5. Over Orlando Friday night ca 2/3, Out at Jacksonville Saturday morning. Link to run
12Z HRWF: Landfall Morehead City, NC Saturday morning. Cat 3




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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97221 - Tue Oct 04 2016 01:55 PM

Looks well north of boca, more central florida hit maybe. I am in fort lauderdale, we won't get much unless it heads more west soon. Not worried. I would be concerned for central florida and the entire coast up to nc.

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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97222 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:08 PM

12Z Euro run is delayed approx an hour today.

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StormHound
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97223 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:14 PM

Quote:

Looks well north of boca, more central florida hit maybe. I am in fort lauderdale, we won't get much unless it heads more west soon. Not worried. I would be concerned for central florida and the entire coast up to nc.




You aren't directly in the crosshairs, but you are not nearly out of the woods. A central Florida hit would mean Fort Lauderdale would get strong hurricane winds for a long time. It isn't just the eye you need to worry about.

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Storm Hound
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StormHound
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97224 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:17 PM

Quote:

From Mike Ventrice:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081

Image:

"Not good. This AM's ECMWF High probability cluster with a BIG statement. All members now track #Matthew into Florida at a Cat 4 intensity."




Are these models available anywhere? From reading Mike's tweets, it seems he has access to models that are not publicly available, but they are very interesting. EWMCF High Probability Cluster models?

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tkusant
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97226 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:49 PM

Just saw the correct GFDL. Yeah. looks like boca, maybe even further south. Maybe I will get something in Ft. Lauderdale. Too soon to know yet, but I am optimistic that it be too far east to do anything here. But the gdfl is interesting!

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M.A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #97227 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:50 PM

Well the craziness has officially started in Vero Beach. Gas stations have lines around the corners. Home Depot is insane, with flag guys directing traffic. Glad I went yesterday!!!

On another note, the NAVGEM and GFDL runs have a disturbing track for us on the coast. Bringing the storm in around Boca/ WPB as a cat- 3/4. This does not bode well for anyone in the state as it brings it right up the spine of the state and out just south of Jacksonville.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97229 - Tue Oct 04 2016 03:06 PM

12Z Euro running ridge starts of fthe same, a bit stronger,

48 hours.. trend west just over Grand Bahama.

72 hours landfall E. Central Florida (Melbourne?)

Then its starts getting weird:

Sunday morning offshore East coast of Georgia then moves southeast well offshore of Cape Canaveral by Monday

ANOTHER landfall after looping back, as a weak Tropical Storm/Depression over Jupiter, Oct 11.

Moves into the Gulf of Mexico west of Ft. Myers on Oct 12th

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...=0&ypos=114


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Owlguin
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97230 - Tue Oct 04 2016 03:31 PM

So, three models with a landfall, Miami, Boca, Melbourne. That is a wide range. Three others keep it offshore. Seems like a difficult forecast for the NHC.

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MissBecky
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97231 - Tue Oct 04 2016 03:36 PM

Didn't the UKMet also hint at a loop in its latest run? This is not something I expected to see at all.

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Happy Birthday Tazmanian93
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97232 - Tue Oct 04 2016 03:45 PM

I think the problem which caused the hour delay is not resolved

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97233 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:00 PM

Euro Wind swath (in knots), you can convert it to MPH by multiplying by 1.15



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MichaelA
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #97235 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:12 PM

Yes. A loop at the end of the run on the 12Z. Interesting.

--------------------
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2017: 15/9/4
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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97239 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:41 PM

I understand they ran the model one hour later due to a windows upgrade; hence, the zany solution.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #97240 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:46 PM

Quote:

So, three models with a landfall, Miami, Boca, Melbourne. That is a wide range. Three others keep it offshore. Seems like a difficult forecast for the NHC.




All of those forecasts are basically within the margin of error (aka the "cone") at this point in time. Granted some are on the very edge but that is pretty normal. This why they always tell you not to focus on the line down the middle, its just the average or NHC's best estimate. As we get closer the cone will narrow and things will become clearer but that might not help too much for Matt. Because longitude wise MIami, Boca and Melbourne are pretty much the same, while latitude wise they cover way more distance. So the problem here is somewhat like Charley: the angle of approach vs the angle of the shoreline means a small turn or jog dramatically alters where the eyewall crosses onto land (if at all). Everyone thought Charley was heading for Tampa but Punta Gorda was in the cone. This is completely different then an Andrew which was straight in. Any changes in its path wouldn't have made a big different to the effect area. Note: I'm just talking TRACK here not strength or size. 5PM update coming soon.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97242 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:56 PM

Looking like the reformed eye is a bit left of the current forecast points already...could mean this is trending toward some of the most dangerous models out there right now. That NAVGEM and GFDL put the darn thing almost on my doorstep or between mine and my mom's house up the middle of the state. Also, Friday is the last day of the grading period in my district with a LOT of things going on. I am thinking some water and gas for the cans might not be a bad idea even in my area of Plant City....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97246 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:15 PM

Agreed, Lamar. People are so focused on the "line" and not the "cone". Heard so many people where I volunteer today say "Matthew is no threat - look at the line." This is so frustrating to me! I told them to go home and watch the weather for updates...half of them didn't even know we had Hurricane Watches issued this morning. I only have a couple of things to get tomorrow & I'm doing it early. This storm is HUGE. Good luck to all!

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97247 - Tue Oct 04 2016 07:00 PM

18z GFS: Over Nassau Thursday Morning, Eyewall over Cape Canaveral Friday morning 947mb (cat 3), Skirts SC coastline Saturday

18Z HWRF is still running, but it's markedly further west. Near Grand Bahama Thursday midday, cat 4.



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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97248 - Tue Oct 04 2016 07:32 PM

This part of the country hasn't seen a hurricane for so long, it's heartening to see all of those who are taking this threat seriously, and preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.

The ATCF Avoidance Area product does a pretty good job illustrating the expanded potential 'danger zones' - the dashed outline encircles the area of tropical storm or worse conditions relative to average track error. As can be seen, even within the 3-day cone, a lot more places than the NHC center line would ever suggest are actually at risk of dangerous tropical cyclone weather.




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tkusant
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97256 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:16 PM

most models now seem to be going back east...

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Prospero
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97259 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:37 PM

To me the sats seem to show the center making a pretty significant movement to the West as it approached Cuba. Maybe just the interaction with land, yet I am not convinced.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97260 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:41 PM

Quote:

most models now seem to be going back east...




Not seeing that myself. The HWRF which was one of the strongest eastward models has been moving west all day. GFDL has it landfalling around Palm Beach, GFS is still sliding west although keeping it off-shore, ECMWF still sliding a bit westward with landfall near Melbourne....and don't even LOOK at the NAVGEM!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2

Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Tue Oct 04 2016 09:44 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97261 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:42 PM

Quote:

To me the sats seem to show the center making a pretty significant movement to the West as it approached Cuba. Maybe just the interaction with land, yet I am not convinced.




Bastardi was tweeting to keep an eye on the movement when it spins up against Cuba...the friction can pull the storm westward in the right conditions...

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2


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Prospero
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97262 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:49 PM

I'm not seeing it as clear I thought a while ago. Maybe my eye is wobbling, been staring at sats and reading reports non-stop since 4 am.

I'll wake up in the middle of the night tonight a few times and use my iPhone to see the latest of everything...


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Joeyfl
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97263 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:51 PM

Just looking back at some old model runs from 5 and 6 days ago and wow UKMET has done a very good job with its tracking of Matthew so far and is also has close backing from European model and both show loop back next week, while this is lea st of worries right now and would likey be weak system it would only dampen recovery time, but something to keep and eye on with shortwave trough moving through north tier of country getting progressively weaker and strong Ridge building in western atlantic.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97264 - Tue Oct 04 2016 10:44 PM

Get some sleep, my friend. The storm will still be there when you wake up! However, I'm sure that you are just as anxious as I am to see the newest advisory.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97265 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:09 PM

11PM doesn't show much change, I thought we would see a more westerly track. Does show a tiny slow down. Big worry is a slow down over the warm gulf stream giving Matt plenty of fuel and time to ramp up. However the question of wind field size also has to be addressed. Tomorrow is going to be a long day of watching and waiting. Might do 1/2 the panels tomorrow, then the last 1/2 early Thursday AM. Not sure we will ever have a good enough handle on this storm to make the call on land fall in FL. A few more of the models have gone crazy at the end with a loop or bend back. However the guidance is very tightly clustered thru the Bahamas and then very close to central FL.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97266 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:32 PM

I usually watch Steve Jerve on WFLA but decided to watch ABC Action News with Denis Phillips because he is usually the calmest about these storms. He is not calm about this storm tonight. He's warning parents that they "may want to bring their kids home from colleges that are on the East Coast and to text/FB friends family that are in the cone because of the dangerous conditions this storm may cause." I did notice that the 11pm advisory has shifted to the left. There isn't that many days left until this storm hits...hopefully, the track will change; however - after years of watching these storms (and I did my fair share with Charlie, Frances & Jeanne) the closer the storm gets, the more accurate the cone of "uncertainty" becomes. Just stay prepared and hope for the best. Please understand - I am NOT trying to sound like an alarmist - just realistic. Stay safe, my friend!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97267 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:45 PM

0Z GFS Run for tonight, trend a bit west again (at least in the near term)

Wednesday midday over long island in the Bahamas
Thursday morning, over Andros island in the Bahamas
Thursday afternoon near Bimini
Late Thursday night, Just east of West Palm Beach, western edge of eyewall over land.
Friday morning, landfall (or razor thin close) cape Canaveral
Rides up along coast, starts turning away to the north within Flagler county.
Moves even further away from land /Georgia on Saturday morning moving NE.
Turns back Southeast, then south, starts heading back to Central Bahamas by Oct 11th (This is getting absurd)
Over Nassau on morning of October 12th.
Over Andros island late October 12th
Nearing the Florida keys late October 13th
Rapidly moves back north Oct 14th
Rakes Florida east coast... again late October 14th.
Starts moving out to sea? October 15th.

The most interesting (and absurd) model run I've ever seen, it keeps it a major hurricane the entire run.




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Random Chaos
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97269 - Wed Oct 05 2016 12:40 AM

That's one crazy loop on the 0z GFS. Looks like it's going for eastern FL twice...a week apart... I'll believe it when I see it happen. Not to say it's impossible...but...wow.

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Troy C
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97270 - Wed Oct 05 2016 12:54 AM

Yeah, Jeanne in 2004 did a loop and headed back toward Florida, but not that big of a loop.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Troy C]
      #97280 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:03 AM

Quick model check... yep more west...

0Z EURO Overnight : Late tonight just west of Long Island in the Bahamas, Late Tomorrow Between Grand Bahama and Ft. Lauderdale, rides up or just in coast until Friday Night to Jacksonville, Moves away from shore, then back east of South Carolina to start a big loop Tuesday night it's approaching the Northern Bahamas from the east (moving southwest) where the run ends.

6Z GFS slight shift west
near or over Nassau Midday tomorrow, Very close to west palm Beach Friday Morning, landfall? or razor close on Cape Canaveral midday Friday, Over Daytona Beach Friday Afternoon, Just offshore Jacksonville early Saturday morning, Sharp loop east by midday Saturday, Between Grand Bahama and West Palm Beach (again) on Tuesday Night Rides southwest just offshore the Florida coast to Marathon through Thursday morning of next week. Then rides back up toward Miami and then turns east back over Grand Bahama then Abaco Island, and finally out to sea.

These really odd runs with loops are extremely troubling beyond the short term. Florida's hurricane drought is very OVER. (Hermine and this)

0Z GFDL Landfall West Palm Beach midday Friday,r ides just inland up the coast of Florida, exiting near St. Augustine Saturday morning.
6Z HWRF still east of the coast, but closer than earlier runs.





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Happy Birthday Tazmanian93
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97281 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:03 AM

Guess that looping caused the hour delay, very interesting. Seems to possibly be a "thing" now.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97286 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:51 AM

Quote:

The most interesting (and absurd) model run I've ever seen, it keeps it a major hurricane the entire run.




Last night it seemed like a joke, but now it appears this might be a real possibility.

Also noticed another slight slow down, what once was a Thursday PM event is now a Friday AM event for FL coast. Any more trends west will put hurricane force winds onto the coast.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Happy Birthday Tazmanian93
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97290 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:09 AM

You seeing this also? Appears west of 12Z track guidance. Another westward adjustment possibly forthcoming?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97291 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:15 AM

Windyty projection of canaveral landfall based on Euro

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madmumbler
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97292 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:34 AM

Ummm... yeah. Those loops are really starting to filter through the models. When it was just one I laughed it off as an anomaly, but this is starting to look extremely disconcerting. And the official 8am NHC track reflects that, too.

Wow. And I thought Jeanne was an odd duck.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97298 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:02 AM

No changes in the 11AM update... still just brushing by the Space Coast. Panels are going up, the core is just too strong to risk it. If this was a Cat 1/2 I wouldn't be worried but with a Cat 3/4 on the doorstep better safe then sorry.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Jelf
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97301 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:36 AM

The link below displays a Google/GIS map that always shows the latest Hurricane Mathew data that is hosted on the federal GIS (Geographical Information System) servers. Each time you open the map the most recent data hosted on the GIS servers is displayed.

The map also displays the U.S. National Grid (USNG) which is the official coordinate system used by FEMA for all ground operations.

To (1) see the map key, (2) learn how to turn other GIS overlay layers on/off and (3) get other tips for using the map, please click “About this map” in the upper left corner.

Google/GIS Hurricane Mathew map: http://bit.ly/2d3jDFc

I am the developer of Gmap4 which is the software that is displaying the map. This project is a public service and part of my way to “pay it forward”. For more information please see the Gmap4 homepage:
https://mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.html


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Jelf]
      #97319 - Wed Oct 05 2016 02:42 PM

12Z Euro landfall somewhere in Brevard friday morning, rides up coast a bit landfall Charleston, SC Saturday morning the heads east and does a loop.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97321 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:23 PM

I am in southwest Seminole County, FL. Is anyone boarding up? We did for the second Hurricane of 2004 and it made a world of difference. It is just so big of a task. I need to buy new plywood and cut it. This is a huge undertaking.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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dolfinatic
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97322 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:24 PM

Models continue to trend more west. Would not surprise me if this storm gets further inland in Florida. At its present trajectory it looks to pass Andros to the west which would put south Florida more in play. and possibly more effects along the west coast of florida as well.

Edited by dolfinatic (Wed Oct 05 2016 03:32 PM)


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Marknole
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97323 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:26 PM

If Boston's Nor'easter "Benchmark" is 40N/70W, then Andros is South Florida's equivalent. Latest visible floater shows a northerly wobble, but think it will stay east of that large Bahamian island. Matthew Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop

Edited by Marknole (Wed Oct 05 2016 03:29 PM)


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Lots Of Canes
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GFS Pressure off from other models [Re: Marknole]
      #97325 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:34 PM

Anyone notice the GFS pressure is considerably higher than the other models? It has been the last few runs. Look here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...=0&ypos=100

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dolfinatic
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #97326 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:36 PM

Ya I see the wobble now. but I'm sure this will wobble back and forth. It is really key as to which side storm passes Andros as to where the effects will be felt in Florida. Seems the ridge is building faster and a little stronger than originally thought. Just my take. I reserve the right to change my mind at any given moment. LOL..

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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #97327 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:40 PM

Quote:

At its present trajectory it looks to pass Andros to the west which would put south Florida more in play.




This was my brother's call too. West of Andros = FL landfall, east of Andros = just along the coast.
On the last RGB image the eye is about an eye's width SE of its projected location.

Panels are up... 4 hours of sweating so I'm sure Matt will head out to sea now

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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kapSt.Cloud
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97328 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:56 PM

My error was in posting in the wrong forum so I was directed to post here. My post was:
"Is the GFS model reliable? It's tracking Matthew to ride the coast of Florida north to South Carolina. Then it veers eastward, does a loop to a projected path to hit Florida again, then into the Gulf!!

Edited by kapSt.Cloud (Wed Oct 05 2016 04:09 PM)


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mikethewreck
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #97333 - Wed Oct 05 2016 05:20 PM

The GFS is one of the models NHC uses to forecast the track of the storm. If you look at the past projections the forecast track near term has been moving closer to FL and later shifting away from a NC landfall to turning back out to sea. This is due to multiple models including GFS. The European model has in general outperformed GFS on this storm and also turns Matthew back to sea after FL. Don't focus on one model but rather look at them as a group and see if what they are telling you in terms of the atmospheric conditions driving the storm makes sense. I hope GFS is wrong but time will tell.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!

Edited by mikethewreck (Wed Oct 05 2016 05:22 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #97336 - Wed Oct 05 2016 05:33 PM

The GFS model is catching up to the European models - a little bit slower now there is more consensus among the models. If you watch the video that was posted on the main page earlier today, it will explain a lot. My main concern at this point is that is threading the needle (not that the Bahamas are anything like Cuba or Haiti) and there's really nothing in Matthew's way to stop him from intensifying. To be honest, I'm beginning to think (stress "I'm", lol) that this is going to be more than just a brush across the coastline; that being said - I am no meteorologist. Orlando is now under a Hurricane Warning and I only live 40 minutes from Disney.
One other thing: the models began picking up on Matthew coming back for a second round earlier this morning and I thought "Are they nuts?!" but now it looks as though THAT may also be verifying. Keep safe and take care! Colleen :-)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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M.A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97337 - Wed Oct 05 2016 05:42 PM

I am starting to have some concerns about the intensity forecast. The last few frames of the satellite pictures show a massive burst of convection on the north side of the CDO. This is normally "to me" a sign of rapid intensification. My thoughts have always been 130 mph+ get out of town, no matter what. Thoughts would be appreciated. Is this just an overactive mind or is there a basis to believe this could get back to 140mph?

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tpratch
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #97341 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:06 PM

Quote:

Is this just an overactive mind or is there a basis to believe this could get back to 140mph?




While I understand your concern - the front right quadrant is projected to remain offshore, and the hurricane force winds are in a fairly compact area.

At this exact moment in time, it's a bit too early to say that you should worry.

I rode out Frances and Jeanne in Brevard County - and both were bearing down as Cat 4 storms.

Due to the overall minimal size of the hurricane wind field, the strongest quad being out to sea, and the uncertainty regarding the track - pay attention, but at this exact moment, it's difficult to tell you that you're overreacting.

I will, however, say that if you are not comfortable, that you should make preparations sooner rather than later.


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M.A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tpratch]
      #97343 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:22 PM

We also rode out Frances and Jeanne here in Vero. The difference between 125 mph and 140 is drastic. Jeanne we had gusts to 123 at the airport and never had the calm of the eye, just the northern eye wall. I guess we will decide in the morning with the 8am update. Thank you for the input.

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Prospero
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #97345 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:10 PM

Jeanne passed over Tampa Bay in the evening as a non-event, but after everyone went to sleep it moved over the Gulf of Mexico and fired back up. Around 3:00 am as far away as Sun City Center (maybe 20 or 30 miles) in the southeast quadrant I awoke to the sound of wind that I thought was going to suck the a/c unit out of my window. Within a little while the power was out and it was almost two weeks before we had electricity again. In the morning I took a drive and saw widespread damage and many trees down.

Never under-estimate a storm, a single outer band can cause a lot of damage.


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MichaelA
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97346 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:21 PM

The 18Z runs of the GFDL and GFS models are showing the eye just inland and tracking right up the St. John's river through Jacksonville. It will be interesting to see if the 11PM track guidance shifts a little more to the West. Anymore westward track would bring the probability of TS force conditions to the Tampa Bay area and West Central FL. Keeping an update to update watch here.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 3/0/0


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Prospero
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97347 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:30 PM

Here in Gulfport with all of our old trees, a sustained wind of 30 mph would create quite a problem, especially if it is from the North.

Hopefully the torrential rains will not affect us like it did with Hermine since St. Petersburg tends to dump its raw sewage into the bay every time there is a major downpour. I'm still coughing from the recent Red Tide bloom that was likely caused at least in part by their sewage in the Gulf of Mexico. Ugh


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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #97348 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:45 PM

8 PM update and the models are coming into agreement, they all point to landfall along the space coast. Titusville sticks out into the sea so this coastal rider is likely going to cut across the land there. The angle of approach is less now, thus southern FL (Miami-Dade county and southern Broward) will likely be out of the really bad stuff. However areas further north and inland (of landfall) are more under threat now. Its not often you see Orlando with a hurricane watch.

Matt is currently east of his projected path which I assume will result in the cone is pulling further north while at the same time shrinking the threat to the south. Jeff Masters posted that this is very much like David which is the 1st storm I ever experienced at only 8 years old. My biggest take away from that was the surge, even in Ft Lauderdale due to the angle, as that batters a larger section of coast then a direct-in style landfall.

There is a large amount of energy to the north of Matt's eye but it is yet to wrap around. The current asymmetrical look is why the winds are down slightly. But if Matt wraps up it could easily regain that Cat 4 status. He appears kind of squished and elongated N/S and no longer that perfect ball like before.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Troy C
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97349 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:58 PM

Titusville doesn't really stick out into the sea, although to its east is geographic Cape Canaveral which does.

That being said the track does appear , at 8pm, to go right over most of central and northern Brevard County. Unprecedented situation possible for this area.

I'm on SW VA right now. Hang in there everyone. Be safe.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97350 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:00 PM

Slight correction. Orlando and Orange County is under a Hurricane WARNING.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #97351 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:15 PM

In my own humble opinion - you do what you feel most comfortable with...this is a storm over 700 miles wide - that is nothing to play around with at all. As far as intensity goes - I watched Charlie ramp up from a Cat 1/2 to a 4 in a matter of hours. I live inland and am currently under a TS Warning. Orlando is now under a Hurricane Warning. I would not say you are over reacting at all - just concerned & right fully so. I went to get some extra supplies at Publix today and the gas station right next to it was turning people away. Go with your gut. Do what you think is right for you and your family. If nothing else, you'll have some extra supplies. Even the NHC can't predict intensity - and it's not that far away. Stay safe! Colleen :-)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97353 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:42 PM

Matthew appears to be prepping for yet another round of significant intensification overnight tonight. Deep convection is blowing up over the radius of maximum winds, and wrapping all the way around the eye. Additionally, objective forward looking T numbers out of CIMSS are hitting the 7s using a pinhole eye analysis. This current picture, combined with a forecast of very low shear aloft, abundant mid-level humidity, and 27-30c waters to a depth of up to 400' below the surface for the next 18-30 hours, argue for the potential of another rapid intensification, or at a minimum, a hike back up to high-end Cat 3, overnight. My own personal opinion is of a 55% chance of mid-range Cat 4 or better within 30 hours.

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Team getterdun
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97354 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:45 PM

Does anybody have a good link for up-to-minute sea bouy data in this storms' area? Wind speed and wave height, etc...

Edit by RedingtonBeachGuy -- try this: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Oct 05 2016 09:57 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97356 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:17 PM

I remember Jeanne well...I fell asleep around 4am only to hear shingles ripping off our roof. Many trees down in our neighborhood - which was mostly due to Charlie & Frances. The neighbor behind us had a tree fall right through the middle of his house. Scariest storm I ever went through...stay safe and alert everyone!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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JMII
Weather Guru


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97358 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:26 PM

Quote:

Matthew appears to be prepping for yet another round of significant intensification overnight tonight.




The core is becoming symmetrical again, with a strong eye wall and distinct, clear eye feature. Out flow is still somewhat limited but some spiral bands are becoming apparent. It will be interesting to see if this causes Matt to spread out, currently he is pretty compact. Strengthening is occurring, which was predicted. Still appears a touch east of its projected path but only by a few miles.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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vonkamp
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97360 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:54 PM

Quote:

The 18Z runs of the GFDL and GFS models are showing the eye just inland and tracking right up the St. John's river through Jacksonville. It will be interesting to see if the 11PM track guidance shifts a little more to the West. Anymore westward track would bring the probability of TS force conditions to the Tampa Bay area and West Central FL. Keeping an update to update watch here.




Good grief, I live on the St. Johns River in Green Cove Springs. I guess I'll be bugging out in the am. Been raining all day and night here.


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JMII
Weather Guru


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: vonkamp]
      #97365 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:15 PM

11PM update shows no changes to track, just a note about a slight NNW turn occurring Thursday night. That appears to be what will push Matt more towards the Space Coast and away from the Broward/Palm Beach area in a slow arch. The core is looking really strong but Matt continues to be a small, compact storm. Outflow still appears somewhat limited, especially to the NE where I assume the High is pushing back against him, the SE quadrant shows more expansion. So far he has not "puffed" up yet and maintains 115 MPH in a 45 mile ring only. Hopefully we don't wake up to a huge monster in terms of wind field expansion or a big jump in overall strength. The last few RBTOP frames show a return to the projected path. Still looks to brush the east side of Andros, where Nassau looks to take the worst of it from the NE quadrant.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: vonkamp]
      #97366 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:22 PM

I'm not looking forward to hearing the new Recon info...I can see it myself...Matt has nothing in his way. It looks right now as though the whole entire state will be affected one way or the other.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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IsoFlame
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97367 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:35 PM

Based on WESH 2's hi-resolution future-cast radar, coastal Volusia looks to get the forward and rear portions of Matthew's eyewall Friday as the center tracks NNW straddling the coast. This historic hurricane is close to a worse case scenario for Florida's east coast. A category 5 starting further south in Miami-Dade making the same run Matthew is forecast to make is the only thing I can think of that is potentially more devastating.

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Lots Of Canes
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97368 - Thu Oct 06 2016 12:04 AM

Gotta say I'm worried about getting both top and bottom eye in Palm Coast. Shutters are on.

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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lots Of Canes]
      #97381 - Thu Oct 06 2016 08:39 AM

The NHC is doing an excellent job on the forecast track, Matt has been following the center of the line since coming off the tip of Cuba. As I guessed last night he is east of Andros and remains a compact storm. The eye wall was very close to Exuma around 2AM last night and a personal weather station there reported 109 MPH winds as the pressure bottomed out at 29.04 in. Mathew's eye is visible on radar so tracking from here on out should be very straight forward.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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tkusant
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97384 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:09 AM

Is it just me, or does it look lke on satellite view it just took a jog left. Maybe I am hoping it turns west toward me instead of clobbering my parents in melbourne.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97385 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:20 AM

Matthew is doing rapid intensification now and still has the Gulf stream to cross, lounge thought is that Mathew has a serious shot at becoming a cat 5 before landfall.

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Myles
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97386 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:44 AM Attachment (94 downloads)

Quote:

Is it just me, or does it look lke on satellite view it just took a jog left. Maybe I am hoping it turns west toward me instead of clobbering my parents in melbourne.




I don't see it. The eye is wobbling a bit and the clouds are obscuring it a little so it's hard to get exact motion between frames. Try not to pay too much attention to frame to frame changes in apparent motion.

Edit: I would not like to be on New Providence Island right now.


Edited by Myles (Thu Oct 06 2016 09:53 AM)


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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Myles]
      #97393 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:16 AM

11AM update and he is still doing exactly as predicted: some strengthening and following the line perfectly. The northern part of the storm, even close into the core, is looking a bit rough. Not fully symmetrical but trying to get there. With each update the threat to southern FL goes down. Given Matt's current compact structure it doesn't appear that anyone south of West Palm will see hurricane force winds unless Matt's wind field expands in the next 8-10 hours. Still wondering how much influence the warm gulf stream will have. We have seen several storms recently that have "blown up" with rapid intensification in short windows so we still can't fully rule that scenario out.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Leemc
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97395 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:30 AM

Actually, the hurricane wind field went from 40 miles from the center to 60 miles from the center. Yes, we are out of the CONE (W. Delray Beach), but hat only means the eye won't hit us. I won't relax yet.

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Kraig
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Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Leemc]
      #97396 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:59 AM

>64 knot (hurricane) wind field from current 11am advisory. 50 miles to NW of center, 30 miles to SW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.3N 80.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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Leemc
Registered User


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #97397 - Thu Oct 06 2016 12:40 PM

I am still not taking a victory lap, but the hurricane winds are getting further away from me at 26.26N 80.80W

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Leemc]
      #97412 - Thu Oct 06 2016 02:57 PM

This storm is nothing to become complacent about. According to Jeff Masters: Matthew is on track to become the first major hurricane to make landfall on U.S. shores since Wilma in 2005. It is virtually certain to be the most destructive since Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012, and it could easily end up among the ten most expensive landfalls in U.S. history adjusted for inflation, perhaps rivaling or topping such recent storms as Wilma, Irene (2011), Ike (2008), Ivan (2004), and Charley (2004). Latest estimates from a University of Michigan-based research group are that as many as 9.6 million people from Florida to North Carolina may lose power as a result of Matthew.
Scary stuff, living in Palm Coast near Flagler Beach we are in the hot zone......


--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Owlguin
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: LadyStorm]
      #97418 - Thu Oct 06 2016 03:30 PM

Not bad here in Boca Raton, and watching the eye on radar, it appears to be staying well east of what we thought last night.

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Leemc
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #97419 - Thu Oct 06 2016 03:53 PM

I am watching WPTV Steve Weigel who said that Matthew took 2 jumps to the north in the last hour. He very clearly explained that two small jumps in an hour don't mean anything and is not a trend. However, lets hope it holds.

Their viper radar is showing some amazing graphics.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Leemc]
      #97420 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:10 PM

I am lucky enough to get Channel 9 out of Orlando because of my location in Polk County; they are turning people away from shelters now because they are full...they just reported that at one shelter they turned away 5 families. It also seems to me that the western side of this storm is far more wet than what they had predicted earlier. Stay safe everyone!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Steve H1
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97424 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:20 PM

Well I am not as impressedq with the west side of the storm since it seems not to be filling in as I thought it would but that's a good thing. The storm looks funny to me for some reason. Maybe it's going through and eye wall replacement cycle.

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Happy Birthday Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Steve H1]
      #97425 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:21 PM

Agreed, you can certainly see the weakness (relatively speaking) here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-long.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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JMII
Weather Guru


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97426 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:26 PM

Last few frames on radar show a nearly due N motion as well. Freeport looks like it in the crosshairs now.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97428 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:43 PM

Double eyewalls. Eyewall Replacement Cycle appears to have begun, or is at least attempting to. This has robbed the inner eyewall of quite a lot of moisture, creating a very thick moat of low precip and winds aloft that just aren't transporting as effectively to the surface. However, while this process is underway, the radius of strong tropical storm force winds will likely expand, perhaps substantially, and strong hurricane force winds will likely continue to make it to the surface within one or both eyewalls, just possibly not nearly as intense as before.

The net result of this is not necessarily a good thing, considering that an outright landfall at a given point hasn't always been the greatest concern with Matthew along Florida. A longer wind event is now more likely, with surge impacting a greater area, and possibly also for longer.




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AgentB
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Leemc]
      #97430 - Thu Oct 06 2016 05:28 PM

Got family moved out of Port Orange and Ormond, and I just went back through advisories starting at noon today. Over the last five hours, Matthew has moved .9N & .6W. Granted, that's not a huge amount of time and wobbles east or west are always happening. However, it does seem to be a bit more NNW than NW. Fujiwhara Effect?

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Thu Oct 06 2016 05:29 PM)


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Happy Birthday Tazmanian93
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97431 - Thu Oct 06 2016 05:28 PM

Could be my eyes, but Matthews eye seems to be East of the Forecast points?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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gsand
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97435 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:22 PM Attachment (111 downloads)

Image from NWS Melbourne, substantial change from noon when they were forcasting 115+.

Sorry, thought I embedded it.



--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004
2017 Forecast- 12/5/2

Edited by gsand (Thu Oct 06 2016 06:24 PM)


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BayCoGator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97436 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:24 PM

Quote:

Could be my eyes, but Matthews eye seems to be East of the Forecast points?




Last few radar loops look to have a much more westerly motion. Perhaps this is part of the eyewall replacement cycle and the eye is sorting itself out.


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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: BayCoGator]
      #97441 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:48 PM

Quote:

Last few radar loops look to have a much more westerly motion. Perhaps this is part of the eyewall replacement cycle and the eye is sorting itself out.




That was my observation as well. Its like he slammed into Freeport and just stopped, then juked to the left (west) and is now getting back on his feet. He was east of projected location until the cone adjusted at the 5PM update. Recon reports confirm this motion if you check the plotted low pressure points.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Steve H1
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97448 - Thu Oct 06 2016 07:53 PM

I think that wants Matthew has cleared and he has the Western tip of Grand Bahama Island he will Begin intensifying Again conditions are favorable for this to happen my opinion only

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Steve H1]
      #97461 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:40 PM

Going to toss out a landfall guess now. Near Patrick Air Force Base, then north.

Factors: inner eyewall is slowly losing battle with outer eyewall, motion is better judged by outer eyewall on radar. Pressure is down, windspeeds have fallen, which implies the eyewall replacement is having an impact.

Note: This is *just* a guesstimate, it could make no landfall, or landfall south or north of this point. I'm probably going to be wrong.

Anyone else want to guess?


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EMS
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97466 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:52 PM

At 8 am I told my friends I didn't think it would make landfall in Florida based on the motion it was taking (a little north of north west) and the fact that it was east of the forecast points. East coast will still be in for a rough day but just don't think we will see an actual landfall south of the FL/GA border.

Thanks Mike to you and all the mods for their great work and a reminder to everyone on the east coast to stay safe and get out of harm's way.


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Troy C
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #97467 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:57 PM

Landfall guess? I hate to even think it, but, similar to Mike's: Between Cape Canaveral city and geographical Cape Canaveral.

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Kraig
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97468 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:59 PM

I have to concur, Mike.... Somewhere between Sebastian and the Cape. Patrick is as good a point as any!

Also have to add that at about 60 miles due east of my home, I can slightly exhale. Hoping it decides to stay east of forecast track!

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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BayCoGator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Troy C]
      #97469 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:01 PM

Cocoa/Canaveral would make the most sense right now. If it doesn't connect there it might not landfall in FL at all. I'll go with a wildcard...St. Augustine.

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JMII
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: BayCoGator]
      #97474 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:08 PM

Matt is tracking slight E of forecast again but with the double eyewall feature its hard to tell. Gotta say the Cape looks like where he'll touch US land.. if at all.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Lots Of Canes
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97475 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:09 PM

If the outer eye tightens I say target is between Daytona and S. Jax. Looks a lot like a Flagler strike. This storm has done a lot to avoid land. It wants to ride the coast up. If outer eye stays open, the Melbourne-ish and ride up giving every one both top and bottom of the eye. After this it turns right and interacts with his ex wife Nicole and sends her North and him South into a TD or TS that comes in S. FLoria and falls apart.

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IsoFlame
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97477 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:10 PM

First landfall not too far north of your guestimate near the City of Cape Canaveral, NNW through Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge and up the Mosquito Lagoon, then a wobble a bit more west near Oak Hill, tracking NNW between US 1 and I-95 from Edgewater to New Smyrna, bit of a wobble back east near Ponce Inlet and straddling the coast through Daytona Beach Shores, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, finally the entire eye back over the Atlantic just south of Matanzas Inlet, settling on a northerly course and leaving north Florida alone.

The conjecture above is based on a "pit-in-the-stomach" feeling that has been with me since Monday morning. Hope upon hope that Matthew unexpectedly veers north and the entire eye wall never touches the Cape or Florida's east coast.

Edited by IsoFlame (Thu Oct 06 2016 10:14 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97479 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:14 PM

The 18Z runs of the GFDL, GFS, and the HWRF models seem to indicate a slightly eastward track adjustment. If that verifies, the center may stay just offshore of Florida. Still, from Cape Canaveral northward will be the maximum impact.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 3/0/0


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Prospero
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97481 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:30 PM

Quote:

Anyone else want to guess?



Hmmm, an unscientific guess, since as of 10:00 pm watching the Weather Channel now saying there may not be a landfall, my intuition is that Matthew will play the cruel joke and hit hard and go a little deeper into Florida than anybody is suspecting.

I respect the mathematical probabilities and meteorological formulas that we rely on to predict where a storm will go, but I also believe this great ball we live on is a living breathing entity and has a physiological purpose for hurricanes and will do what it wishes to maintain its health while possibly enjoying making us all feel like fools sometimes.

Of course the other cruel joke would be that it stays just far enough out at sea that Florida and the US East Coast feels very little effects and the evacuations and hard work to secure life and property was for naught, which in the long run could be very dangerous when the big one does hit and nobody takes it serious.

I do wonder, if secret cloud-seeding is taking place now and then. There have been a few hurricanes over the past years I have watched that should have been much stronger and some kind of strange phenomena seemed to throw them off a bit at unexpected times. Katrina being one in mind, but did eventually did cut loose. If that is happening, then I'd suspect that by playing with nature we may be setting stage for a future storm nightmare.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97482 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:33 PM

Well I'm thinking no landfall at all. When I briefed EM yesterday I felt that it would stay about 30 miles offshore. I've been plotting all of the recon center fixes since 09Z and they have all been about 15 miles to the east of the forecast track that I used in the briefing - so I sure hope that the trend continues. That would put Matthew about 45 miles offshore east of Melbourne at about 07/1130Z.
ED


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Jelf
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97484 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:39 PM

Back on page 8 of this thread I posted a link to a Google/GIS map. Below is a link to the same map but showing some different GIS layers.

I turned off the layer with the cone of uncertainty and turned on the layers “Storm_surge_flood” and “24_hr_rain/flooding_report”. Since the layer with the rain/flooding reports is ‘on top’ you can click those symbols and see a popup with all the attribute data the GIS server has for the thing that you clicked. Those spot reports often have info about wind speed.

Hurricane Mathew Google/GIS map: http://bit.ly/2e7kTJh

When the map opens it is zoomed in a bit and centered on Merritt Island (Kennedy Space Center). The surge forecast shows that most of the island is expected to be underwater. Expected water depths are as follows:
Blue > 1 ft
Yellow > 3 ft
Orange > 6 ft
Red > 9 ft

For a link to some interesting metadata associated with this surge forecast, please click “About this map” in the upper left corner and scroll down to the entry for “Storm surge flood (7,9)” and follow the nowcoast link.

And if you are seeing this map for the first time and would like some tips for turning layers on/off etc, you will find that info by clicking "About this map" in the upper left corner.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97486 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:10 PM

Hope this verfies...and it looks like it is according to TWC....and yes, this is another example of why some people don't evacuate. I just hope people don't go to sleep thinking "Ok, we're safe" and wake up to a surpise. Good night and good luck.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Jelf
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97488 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:31 PM

I just remembered that I also produced a Google/GIS map that can show various data layers that are hosted on a Florida state server. This data comes from the FloridaDisaster.org team.

When this map opens it shows the forecast storm surge from a hit by a category 4 hurricane.

Florida storm surge Google/GIS map: http://bit.ly/2dQzXMl

To see the map legend click “About this map” in the upper left corner and then scroll down to the link for the Cat 4 legend.

This map also has a “Road closed” layer that can be turned on and which might be useful after the worst of the storm has passed.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Jelf]
      #97490 - Fri Oct 07 2016 12:17 AM

wonder if Nicole remained at 50mph we'd be looking at Cat 5 hitting Canaveral...?

--------------------
Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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berrywr
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97491 - Fri Oct 07 2016 12:42 AM

I'm with Ed on no Florida landfall. The track has ever so subtle been bending more and more right since this Thursday morning. I'm not ready to rule out Savannah though. The 500 and 300 millibar charts both at 06/12Z and 07/00Z showed decameter height rises along the Atlantic coast and the major shortwave out west has also shown no height falls. This is indicative of a strengthening upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic with an axis extending east. They sampled the Gulf of Mexico for the 00Z run and the Atlantic on the 12Z run. Interesting thing about this storm is how well it's threaded the needle when it comes the eye being mostly over water through much of its life. The GFS model run at 07/00Z writes off Matthew in a week; sends Nicole out to the North Atlantic graveyard. I'm not ready to rule either of them out just yet. Upper air might have a few more surprises...yet.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Fri Oct 07 2016 12:44 AM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #97493 - Fri Oct 07 2016 01:53 AM

I've been watching Channel 9 out of Orlando since we got the last update at 11pm. It appears to me that the outer eyewall is headed right for the coast and the inner eyewall is struggling to keep up...the winds have picked up significantly here in the last hour. I'm guessing a lot of people are without power at this point since there have been no comments on the main page or this page. I've heard 3 snapping branches in my backyard in the last 15 minutes with one landing on my roof. I hope everyone is safe and sound!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Bev
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97496 - Fri Oct 07 2016 02:22 AM

2am update matthew down to a 120mph cat 3 per NHC. Good news for the east coast.
I'm not an expert by any means, but as a twenty year hobbyist it looks like an eyewall replacement cycle has been occurring since Freeport. The inner eyewall is now barely visible on radar with the outer eyewall taking its place. This may have expanded the wind field somewhat but it seems to have reduced, at least temporarily, the intensity.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97498 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:07 AM

Not much happening near Wekiva Springs in Seminole county yet. Worst is yet to come, but with Matt staying off the coast, I expect less of an impact.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97499 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:12 AM

Eye now expected to stay just off the coast.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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richg
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Beachside conditions? [Re: berrywr]
      #97500 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:19 AM

Is anyone awake in the satellite beach area that didn't leave? It looks like the worst is about to hit the island and was hoping for a real condition update other than what the TV is saying (over and over again).

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B.C.Francis
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Re: Beachside conditions? [Re: richg]
      #97502 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:53 AM

I`m awake down here in Indiatlantic .Not to bad here yet. Very strong NE winds that I`d say are 50- 60 at best. Lots of rain. We still have 8-10 hours to go before things start to improve some what. I still have power which is a miracle here on beachside.

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IsoFlame
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #97503 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:10 AM

Florida landfall or not, at 4 am the intensity of rain and wind in the bands wrapping around the eye are lighting up radar and appear to be increasing on the NW side of the eye. Haulover canal wind gauge on north Merritt Island just reported hurricane force wind gust. Oak Hill at the north end of the Mosquito Lagoon in southeast Volusia County will get hammered by this part of Matthew soon, continuing through sunrise.

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Bev
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Re: Beachside conditions? [Re: richg]
      #97504 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:23 AM

Quote:

Is anyone awake in the satellite beach area that didn't leave? It looks like the worst is about to hit the island and was hoping for a real condition update other than what the TV is saying (over and over again).




If you can get to Twitter, @ScienceByMaria is doing live video with reports from Cocoa Beach very near you.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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richg
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Re: Beachside conditions? [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #97505 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:24 AM

Thanks for the beachside info, kinda surprised you still have power after watching the transformers popping like the shock and awe attack. I hope things won't get any worse for you, the first eyewall is coming close. I'm guessing they won't let us back across till late tomorrow at the earliest. Cheers!

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B.C.Francis
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97506 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:24 AM

I agree. Radar image is showing big time rain bands on the NW part of Matthew. I hate to say it but I think you guys up there up there in Volusia are going to get the s**** end of the stick.

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IsoFlame
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #97508 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:51 AM

We have sustained 45 gusting to 60 mph now. Expecting hurricane conditions by sunrise. If wind peaks in the 70-80 mph range later this morning we should overall come through OK, which would be GREAT considering what we were expecting from Matthew based on the hurricane's intensification in the northwestern Bahamas yesterday. I sure hope Matthew's course over the past 4 hours stays true and doesn't wobble any to the west.

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IsoFlame
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #97510 - Fri Oct 07 2016 05:01 AM

5 am advisory keeps Matthew's eye offshore on a more NNW track. Still, a westward wobble could bring west side of outer eye wall onto the coast in Volusia and/or Flagler counties. Too close for comfort!

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B.C.Francis
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97511 - Fri Oct 07 2016 05:03 AM

Watching radar I think I`m seeing a more NNW movement. I hope this is true.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #97513 - Fri Oct 07 2016 06:28 AM

He is doing everything he can to avoid a landfall in the U.S..

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97524 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:02 AM

It looks like it was, so far, the best of a worst-case scenario, and the eye is staying just offshore. That's good for winds, but doesn't mean there won't be storm surge. Still plenty of reason for people to be wary of this system.

And an aside, is anyone else having intermittent problems accessing the NHC's website?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97525 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:34 AM

Measured wind gust Flagler Beach 68 mph at 10:06 am.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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MichaelA
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97526 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:40 AM

The NHC site seems OK to me now. It was a bit slow earlier this morning, probably due to traffic.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 3/0/0


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craigm
Storm Tracker


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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: LadyStorm]
      #97528 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:53 AM

From TCpalm.com
'On the Treasure Coast, Martin County was the hardest hit with almost half of its 90,000 customers — 43,000 — without power at 8 a.m. Friday, according to county figures updated roughly every hour to two hours.'

Power went out around 11 last night. Very little tree damage when driving around this AM but did see and hear numerous transformer explosions last night.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Lots Of Canes
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #97530 - Fri Oct 07 2016 11:31 AM

Sure feels and looks on radar to be the eyewall here in flagler.

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StormHound
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lots Of Canes]
      #97532 - Fri Oct 07 2016 01:03 PM

Seems to be a bit west of the forecast track on satellite, and the western edge of the eyewall is only about 10 miles offshore according to radar. Jacksonville still in play for landfall?

--------------------
Storm Hound
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 141
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lots Of Canes]
      #97534 - Fri Oct 07 2016 01:16 PM

Weather channel has the sun out in Daytona Beach

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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: LadyStorm]
      #97535 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:11 PM

I just looked at the looping radar out of JAX, and it seems that Matthew jogged East in the last two frames.

Up here in SC, I like seeing that trend, and hope it continues.

--------------------
"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein


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