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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - Major Hurricane Matthew
      #96999 - Sun Sep 25 2016 09:47 AM

At 25/12Z Invest 97L was located about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands near 8.2N 37.7W. 97L is a very disorganized system moving quickly to the west in the northern ITCZ with winds of 20 knots and pressure at 1011MB. SSTs are at 30C and the system is currently within a light windshear environment and as the system enters the Caribbean Sea late Wednesday it will encounter increasing westerly windshear. Rapid forward movement to the west will slow the organizational process for the next couple of days.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 01 2016 02:47 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Matthew [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97040 - Thu Sep 29 2016 10:16 AM

As anticipated, windshear has disrupted the central convection of TS Matthew and displaced it to the north and east of the center of the cyclone. The well-formed low-level center is well south of Puerto Rico near 14N at 29/14Z and continues to move west at about 10 knots. West to west southwest windshear will continue to disrupt Matthew through this weekend. A glance at the lower level steering current (850-300MB) suggests that the low level center may not get captured by the trough to the north of eastern Cuba unless convection can reform around the center.
ED

SSEC Lower Level Steering Currents


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Matthew [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97048 - Fri Sep 30 2016 02:13 AM

Matthew is under a rapid intensification cycle and has winds of 85 knots (Cat2). Movement is south of due west at 12 knots with central pressure now at 979MB.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Major Hurricane Matthew [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97087 - Sat Oct 01 2016 02:46 AM

From NHC:
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 72.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

Wind gusts in the eyewall of Matthew are close to 200mph and forward motion continues just to the south of due west at 6 knots. Slow movement to the west is expected on Saturday with a turn to the northwest on Sunday IF upper level steering currents diminish. The forward speed has decreased considerably on Friday and the official forecast is based on a strengthening trough capturing Matthew and turning it northward. The trough is building eastward in the Gulf of Mexico.
ED


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