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Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases
      #97166 - Mon Oct 03 2016 04:46 PM

11PM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Dade/Broward line (Golden Beach) to Sebasitan Inlet (Indian River/Brevard Line) and Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane watches extend north to the Flagler/Volusia county lines. Track has shifted a bit west, now <20 miles offshore of Volusia/Cape Canaveral, which would bring the eywall onshore there. Matthew is forecast to still be a category 4 hurricane when it is near the Florida coastline. The track may shift again later.

Although the storm did weaken a bit crossing over cuba, it is still a category 4 hurricane.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.




5PM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Hurricane watches are extended south to the Miami/Dade county line extend north to the Volusia/Brevard county line. It's likely the watches will be extended northward later tonight and tomorrow. The track has shifted west and will likely have a historic impact on the east coast of Florida.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. See http://floridadisaster.org for Florida Emergency information.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

2PM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Matthew continues as an all-time historic, very dangerous and deadly Atlantic hurricane.

After being somewhat disrupted by the speed bump of western Hispaniola, the last recon pass found pressures lowering again. Of note, after last night's long-anticipated Eyewall Replacement Cycle, the hurricane force windfield has greatly expanded. Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

Here are some more of the phenomenal stats on Matthew (h/t Philip Klotzbach)

Hurricane Matthew has been at Cat. 4-5 intensity for the longest streak during October for an Atlantic hurricane on record.

Matthew is 4th place for ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) generated within the entire Caribbean (<=20°N, 90-60°W) - behind only Cuba (1932), Ivan (2004) & Mitch (1998)

-Ciel


11AM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Hurricane watch from Deerfield Beach to Brevard/Volusia county line

Tropical Storm Watch from Deerfield Beach south to Seven Mile Bridge including Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Nicole Forms...

More to come later.

6AM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Hurricane Matthew is nearing the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti, on the extreme western tip of Cuba, as a strong Category 4 hurricane, bringing massive flooding rains and extreme winds to the island. The last several recon passes found Matthew producing sustained Cat 5 winds at elevations only a few hundred feet above the surface, with even stronger gusts, and the terrain is elevated in this area.



Eastern Cuba and the majority of the Bahamas will be dealing with the system Through Friday.

Beyond this the official track takes the storm within 50 miles of the east Florida coastline (particularly near Central Florida) and riding near or at the coast all the way through North Carolina. Florida is weil within the cone and a small shift west would bring even stronger conditions, conversely more east would bring less, however as large as intense Matthew is, strong impacts will be felt, the track is NOT just a point, especially with a major hurricane. Hurricane watches are likely later today for parts of Florida;. On this track, Florida will see impacts Thursday and Friday, NC toward the weekend.

11PM EDT 3 October 2016 Update

Hurricane Matthew regained a bit of strength tonight with the lowest pressure to date at 934mb and windspeed of 145mph. When Matthew achieved category 5 hurricane status earlier it had the assistance of the trade winds to boost the windspeed which it does not have now. Parts of Haiti could received up to 30 inches of rainfall as the system moves just west or over the tip of the Tiburon peninsula in Haiti.

Beyond that it is forecast to move over the eastern tip of Cuba. This is likely to weaken the system some, but once back in the open water it can restrengthen. It is forecast to go over most of the Bahamas and get within 60 miles of the Florida coastline. It is likely hurricane and or tropical storm watches will be needed for the east coast of Florida tomorrow.

Florida's approach would be Thursday afternoon (south Florida) into Friday. (Central/N Florida).



8PM EDT 3 October 2016 Update

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island, and a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be issued for the Florida east coast late tonight or tomorrow.

Let us know about how things are in your area related to Matthew in this thread.

Original Update

From official Discussion:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east
coast later this week and weekend.

Based on the official track the closest point to Florida is 100 miles off the coast, with adjustments possible. Because of this hurricane watches are likely for the east coast of Florida tonight or tomorrow.

More speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Lounge.


Florida Emergency Management.
Florida Evacuation Zone Maps
Florida County Emergency Management websites
Guantanamo Bay Radar - Recording

Matthew Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Matthew - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Matthew


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Matthew

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Matthew
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Matthew -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording.

Jamaica Storm Info/Media

Jamaica Radar

Jamaican Meteorological Service

Jamaica Observer

Jamaica Star

Jamaica CVM TV

Television Jamaica

Jamaica News Network

Jamaica Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management

Power 106.1 Jamaica Radio

> Bahamas Media

Bahamas Radar

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas

Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Jacksonville, FL Area Media:

MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 868
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97168 - Mon Oct 03 2016 05:24 PM

The question is how strong will the Atlantic ridge and its persistence be over the next few days. The track guidance has shifted westward, closer to Florida. It won't take much more westward movement in order to have a negative impact on East FL and a more definite westward track would affect the entire peninsula. Matthew's track and strength need to be very closely monitored throughout this week all along the eastern seaboard. Be prepared to take action to secure your safety if conditions should warrant that.

Edited by MichaelA (Mon Oct 03 2016 09:04 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4230
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MichaelA]
      #97172 - Mon Oct 03 2016 07:40 PM

I suspect Hurricane watches will be necessary probably West Palm Beach through GA/FL line. Edges of warnings typically are on county lines (for EM jurisdiction reasons) So areas south may get Tropical Storm Watches.

Matthew looks to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle after a few days of fakeouts, recon is on its way, but it is likely to maintain cat 4 while going over the western tip of Haiti. Decision day for Florida will be tomorrow and Wednesday, Thursday afternoon is when things will start to go downhill (sooner in south Florida) and be closest on Friday (for Central Florida). Those closer to the coast will be more likely to see hurricane winds.

Check local emergency management and media for closures, and instructions on evacuations if necessary. I'll put up a "conditions" thread.

To the member in Abaco Island in the Bahamas, the official track is the bad case I was worried about, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97174 - Mon Oct 03 2016 07:57 PM

Recon just found Matthew strengthening with 935mb of pressure.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97175 - Mon Oct 03 2016 08:19 PM

Recon vortex message 934mb, indications that the eyewall replacement cycle may have already completed, it's doing a run up on strength before approaching Haiti, unfortunately.

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Abaco Weather
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Marsh Harbour, Abaco, Bahamas
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97176 - Mon Oct 03 2016 08:48 PM

In full hurricane preparation mode in Abaco- current projection has us on the eastern side of the storm- it doesn't look particularity good. Hoping for a path that is on the eastern side of the cone but planning for the worst. Really concerned about fellow Bahamians in the Central and South Bahamas that had massive damage from Joaquin almost exactly a year ago

Drop in pressure in concerning. Was looking for at least short term weakening with the ERC.

I'll post in current conditions when the weather starts going south.

Good luck everyone...

--------------------
Dennis and Floyd 1999, Frances and Jeanne 2004, Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 356
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: Abaco Weather]
      #97181 - Mon Oct 03 2016 10:45 PM

Everyone holding their collective breath for the 11pm advisory? Talked to my brother in Ft Pierce. He has to put the shutters on his rental house, then may head to mom's in Lake Wales....hope it doesn't swing much farther west!! Then we would have to cram them all in here!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97184 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:01 PM

The 11PM advisory shifted a bit west, for E. Central Florida that puts it about 60-65 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday.

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97188 - Mon Oct 03 2016 11:54 PM

What is of great concern (in addition to the cone shifting more west) is the forecast for Matthew to expand in size coming out of the northern Bahamas. 50kt wind field extends out considerably in all directions (nearly triple present) when Matthew parallels Florida's east coast. A wobble or two west (of the latest advisory) and we will have hurricane force winds Friday morning in Daytona Beach Shores.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97190 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:22 AM

Would it be better for me to board up in Palm Bay and head to Palmc City to my brother in laws?

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SpeedwayCocoa
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: Steve H1]
      #97192 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:59 AM

As I said 2 days ago... The UKMET Model really seems like it's going to be the winner of the model race.
Living in Cocoa, I have know doubt we are in for a good one. I've lived her since 1985 and I believe this is the largest storm to come this close to the coast. Other that the 1998 cat 5 that "jogged" a 100 miles East at the last minute.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1906
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97193 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:35 AM

The last several recon passes found Matthew producing sustained Cat 5 winds at elevations only a few hundred feet above the surface, with even stronger gusts. The greatest threat to the nations of this island from Matthew will likely continue to be catastrophic inland flooding and mudslides, but this certainly isn't helping.

Below is a topographical mapping of Hispaniola

Image credit: Google


And a snapshot of one of these several impressive last recon passes

Image credit: TropicalTidbits.com


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97200 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:59 AM

If you are along the east coast of Florida you can find the evacuation zone maps at this link http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/ If evacuations are needed (likely for some of the zones), this can help you determine if you are in the area or not. If you don't need to evacuate, I'd suggest staying put as the fact Matthew is moving parallel to a lot of the Southeast coast there likely will be a mass migration and horrible traffic to deal with from Florida to North Carolina.

We're quickly coming to the point where it will be difficult to keep up with what's going on (particularly in individual areas) so make sure to watch/listen to local media and government for more detail, and let us know what's up in your area (weather conditions or preparations) in the conditions thread for Matthew. The facebook page, or elsewhere. The front page has a load of links related to that and power outages, and since Matthew is likely to affect Georgia, South and North Carolina also all the info coming will be likely very tough to digest.



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4230
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97202 - Tue Oct 04 2016 07:59 AM

Matthew made landfall near Les Anglais in Haiti about 700 AM EDT

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1906
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97203 - Tue Oct 04 2016 08:12 AM

Matthew just after his landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 7 am EDT. First Cat 4 landfall in Haiti since Cleo in 1964.



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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 104
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: cieldumort]
      #97205 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:41 AM

It looked as though it completed the EWR just in time to make landfall. I pray for the people in its path. We all preach to prepare and have your hurricane kits ready. I just don't know how you exactly prepare for 145 mph sustained winds. Living on the east coast from south Florida to North Carolina this landfall is starting to get people here scrambling. We will be in the crosshairs shortly. Can I vote to change the Hype scale (currently @7.8) To a more accurate name, like the Pucker factor?

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MichaelA]
      #97206 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:52 AM

Hi,

What kind of storm surge should I expect from Matthew in the New Smyrna Beach area? I live in the 'Zone B' evacuation area which, if I understand correctly, means mandatory evacuation in case of a CAT2. Hopefully, NSB will not see CAT2 force winds, but what about the storm surge? How much water will Matthew bring to Volusia county? How worried should I be and what warning signs should I be looking for?
Thanks!
VS

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #97207 - Tue Oct 04 2016 10:30 AM

Tropical storm watches are now up for the Middle and upper keys. More to come soon.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4230
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97208 - Tue Oct 04 2016 10:54 AM

Tropical Storm Nicole Forms...

very busy day


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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97209 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:05 AM

1500z Forecast Advisory- Hurricane Watch Deerfield Beach to Brevard Volusia line. Trop Watch Deerfield Beach south to Seven Mile Bridge.

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: gsand]
      #97210 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:30 AM

Land disrupted the eyewall pressure jumps up to 950mb, it'll probably weaken by next advisory, and get back together over the Bahamas

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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97211 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:44 AM

Although the NHC didn't mention it in their discussion, it looks to me as though the track has shifted a wee bit east of where it was at 5am. Is anyone else seeing this change or did I miss something in the discussion? Thank you.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97213 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:54 AM

Yeah, not a lot though Colleen. Biggest thing is the winds came up from 120 to 130 offshore near my latitude. Ugh.

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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97214 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:01 PM

Agreed. Looking at interactive cone advisory #25A had the western edge west of Lakeland, #26 has it just west of Disney. Also looks like they have increased his forward speed a bit.

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 41
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97215 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:15 PM

Looks like the eastern eyewall took a direct hit on the 7,000' peak in Haiti. Eye completely filled in and may see some erratic movement over the next few hours.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-long.html


--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: Kraig]
      #97217 - Tue Oct 04 2016 12:37 PM

Track really didn't shift until past 3 days (toward carolina) it's just the plot points are different 6 hour intervals. It's actually on the east side of most of the model guidance right now.

Added Guantanamo Bay radar recording: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?231



The radar shows Haiti did not disrupt the storm too much, it knocked pressures up but the structure of the eye remains intact.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97225 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:43 PM

The last two recon vortex messages showed a 2 MB drop over that hour (from 951 to 949 MB). Matthew's motion tappears to be just a hair East of due north. (as noted in the 2PM update)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97228 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:52 PM

Hurricane force winds have expanded to near 60 miles from 25 miles a few days ago.

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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97234 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:08 PM Attachment (357 downloads)

Governor Haley just announced evacuations for coastal communities in South Carolina:

http://www.wltx.com/weather/forecast/tra...gency/328935898

I'm on Hilton Head Island...Skull Creek Marina. While it's starting to look pretty hairy, I'll be lashing down S/V Meridian and getting a bug-out bag ready. We're on the NorthWest side of the island, so we're mostly protected by the island itself for any runs coming up from the South, or in from the East.

Storm surge looks worrisome...

---
Anton

--------------------
"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: MikeC]
      #97237 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:27 PM

Most recent operational run of the gold standard ECMWF has shifted perilously west for Florida.

Further up the coast, this model now calls for a quirky but plausible interaction with newly-named Nicole.

From Bryan Norcross



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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: cieldumort]
      #97245 - Tue Oct 04 2016 05:52 PM

Bryan Norcross doesn't play around. I could not believe when I went into my volunteer job today that almost 90% of the people there did not know that this was a threat to our eastern coast of Florida and that Hurricane watches had been put up at 11:00am. I encouraged them to please pay attention and prepare themselves. I heard a lot of "the black line shows it offshore". I told them not to pay attention to the black line, pay attention to the CONE. I stopped at Winn Dixie on the way home and the lines were incredible.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97251 - Tue Oct 04 2016 08:20 PM

Recon isn't finding anything remotely close to 140 mph at flight level, let alone the surface.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat [Re: TheElNino1]
      #97257 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:18 PM

Quote:

This post has been removed. The posted Vortex message was of East Pacific Newton from earlier this year, and not of Matthew.




Yeah you had me almost cheering until I realized that. Either way it is filling in some, moving slower, I think up slope on the west side is disrupting it some, unfortunately I think it'll recover. I think it'll get knocked down to a 3 or even 2 out of this, but recover tomorrow. Land interactions have the habit of changing the structure of a storm, though, and that's a bit unpredictable could make for a larger size wind field or shrink it, really a wildcard.


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases [Re: MikeC]
      #97268 - Wed Oct 05 2016 12:40 AM

The center of Matthew has exited Cuba, but took a bit of a scenic route and spent a little more time over land while heading a touch west of north, which has brought the intensity down a notch, but the eye is intact and restrengthening looks like the most baseline scenario overnight into tomorrow.

Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 4:15Z
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 3:52:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°23'N 74°23'W (20.3833N 74.3833W)
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 91kts (~ 104.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (308°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30° to 210° (NNE to SSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure


Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center at 3:57:00Z


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SpeedwayCocoa
Registered User


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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases [Re: cieldumort]
      #97274 - Wed Oct 05 2016 06:18 AM

Jim C. just said that the eyes wall wasn't present after leaving Cuba.... So is Matthew going to to start to fall apart? Pressure is up, winds are down. Right now the news is doing there job "SELLING the NEWS" Nothing makes me more upset than to watch these news people go over the same routine over and over again.
They are still claiming Cat3 or 4 when it's off the coast of Central FL. Sounds like hooey to me. The storm doesn't have that beautiful presentation that it had 2 days ago. There will have to be a whole lot of Disney Magic to return the storm to where it was 2 days ago.
Sorry for the vent, I just hate to be SOLD the weather.


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StormHound
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases [Re: SpeedwayCocoa]
      #97276 - Wed Oct 05 2016 06:32 AM

Hooey? It is a strong Category 3 right now and clear of land. It is in a terrific hurricane environment over very warm waters. No reason for it to weaken any more and plenty of reason for it to strengthen. It would be a mistake to expect that it is going to weaken.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases [Re: SpeedwayCocoa]
      #97282 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:09 AM

It is still a strong category 3. Recon is almost into the storm, but yes, the eye was severely damaged by passage over Cuba. Microwave imagery also shows significant damage to the eye.

In the last couple IR frames, you can see the eye starting to reform, and on the FAA radar out of Guantanamo Bay we can clearly see the eye wrapping again.

Several hour old microwave showing the damage to the eye:


Radar image showing the eye quickly reforming:


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