Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Lightning in the eye:
Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 06 2016 05:57 PM)
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JMII
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Darn thing just bounced off Freeport and jogged due west. Hopefully just the eye getting itself back together and not a trend. I've been watching this like a hawk all day and ever single frame of any loop was NW or NNW or slightly N for awhile. This is the first (and only) W motion I've seen. Guess it all averages out but small changes at this range are note worthy.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
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What does lightning in the eye mean? I'm sure it isn't good, just not sure. Thank you!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
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About an hour and a half ago it was about 30 miles E of original forecast point
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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JMII - pay attention to the motion of the outer, larger eye, not the inner eye. The inner eye is floating around a bit within it and it's harder to track direction.
Colleen - generally when hurricane hunters report lightening in the eyewall, it means significant strengthening. That lightening was coincident to when the big flare up of deep convection occurred out of the inner eyewall on IR. Since then the lightening has died down to only a stroke every 10-20 minutes, and the convection has become more uniform per IR.
The inner eye is staying pretty much the same size, but the outer eyewall is contracting quickly on it. Last three recon's had the outer eyewall at 65, 60, and 50nm respectively, while the inner eye has been around 7 to 8nm.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Impressive:
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JMII
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
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The eye tighten up considerable and the NW motion has resumed. The outer bands are beginning to move thru WPB and where I am in Broward. Anyone got ground reports of winds over 100? I've been watching a buoy near West End Airport at its only reporting 88 mph. That doesn't seem possible given this location is literally in the eyewall right now.
Silly loop shows Matt will be back at almost this same location on Tuesday as a TS 
Hurricane Warning from Boca south has been dropped.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
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Looks like the HDOB estimated a 935 MB pressure, Not sure what sort of bias is inherent in the instrument. But it looks like it's deepening a bit more.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
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I'd agree with strengthening, watching on Radar, appears the outer eyewall is closing up, with deeper, stronger convection wrapping around inner eyewall
Well but now watching Norcross, radar presentation VERY different
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Thu Oct 06 2016 09:37 PM)
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SpeedwayCocoa
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
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It looks like the eye is open to the south....No?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
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Hmmmph 10 pm update, 937 mbs, down 2 from the 8pm.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
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@Colleen, yes
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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