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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: cieldumort]
      #97434 - Thu Oct 06 2016 05:52 PM

Lightning in the eye:



Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 06 2016 05:57 PM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97438 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:27 PM

Darn thing just bounced off Freeport and jogged due west. Hopefully just the eye getting itself back together and not a trend. I've been watching this like a hawk all day and ever single frame of any loop was NW or NNW or slightly N for awhile. This is the first (and only) W motion I've seen. Guess it all averages out but small changes at this range are note worthy.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97439 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:30 PM

What does lightning in the eye mean? I'm sure it isn't good, just not sure. Thank you!

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: JMII]
      #97442 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:48 PM

About an hour and a half ago it was about 30 miles E of original forecast point

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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97443 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:53 PM

JMII - pay attention to the motion of the outer, larger eye, not the inner eye. The inner eye is floating around a bit within it and it's harder to track direction.

Colleen - generally when hurricane hunters report lightening in the eyewall, it means significant strengthening. That lightening was coincident to when the big flare up of deep convection occurred out of the inner eyewall on IR. Since then the lightening has died down to only a stroke every 10-20 minutes, and the convection has become more uniform per IR.

The inner eye is staying pretty much the same size, but the outer eyewall is contracting quickly on it. Last three recon's had the outer eyewall at 65, 60, and 50nm respectively, while the inner eye has been around 7 to 8nm.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97444 - Thu Oct 06 2016 07:02 PM

Impressive:



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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97450 - Thu Oct 06 2016 08:05 PM

The eye tighten up considerable and the NW motion has resumed. The outer bands are beginning to move thru WPB and where I am in Broward. Anyone got ground reports of winds over 100? I've been watching a buoy near West End Airport at its only reporting 88 mph. That doesn't seem possible given this location is literally in the eyewall right now.

Silly loop shows Matt will be back at almost this same location on Tuesday as a TS

Hurricane Warning from Boca south has been dropped.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: JMII]
      #97458 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:10 PM

Looks like the HDOB estimated a 935 MB pressure, Not sure what sort of bias is inherent in the instrument. But it looks like it's deepening a bit more.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97459 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:33 PM

I'd agree with strengthening, watching on Radar, appears the outer eyewall is closing up, with deeper, stronger convection wrapping around inner eyewall

Well but now watching Norcross, radar presentation VERY different

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed

Edited by Tazmanian93 (Thu Oct 06 2016 09:37 PM)


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SpeedwayCocoa
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97463 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:42 PM

It looks like the eye is open to the south....No?

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97472 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:05 PM

Hmmmph 10 pm update, 937 mbs, down 2 from the 8pm.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97480 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:26 PM

@Colleen, yes

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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