Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

11PM EDT Update 7 October 2016
Locally record-setting deadly surge event may unfold tonight into Saturday from Georgia to N Carolina. Levels were running around 3-5' above normal during low tide, with many locations expecting high tides around 1-3AM local times. In addition to surge, very heavy rain into the double digits is expected over large parts of the Carolinas as Hurricane Matthew tracks the coast, occasionally making landfall along the way, resulting in life-threatening flash floods. As of the last NHC advisory, maximum sustained winds are still 105mph, with higher gusts.


4PM EDT Update 7 October 2016

Matthew has very fortunately stayed just offshore of eastern Florida, keeping the worst winds at sea, and limiting storm surge potential along the coast there. Despite this, sustained hurricane force winds with gusts over 90 have occurred, and dangerous storm surge has been underway in places like St. Augustine and Daytona Beach.

Life-threatening storm surge will continue tracking up the coast with Matthew. Recently, the highest level of storm surge since 1898 at Fernandinda Beach, located about 50 miles north of St. Augustine, has prompted a Flash Flood Emergency. Later tonight and into Saturday, very surge-prone locations from Georgia to the Carolinas will be at risk for a record surge.

Original Entry

Above: Major Cat 4 Hurricane Matthew & Significant Hurricane Nicole

Life-taking Major Hurricane Matthew is now slowly exiting the Bahamas and taking direct aim on Florida, right up and either side of the coast, into Georgia and then South Carolina. Matthew is an extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Recently West End Bahamas recorded a sustained north wind at 103 MPH gusting to 124 MPH, but was also offline for over an hour during much of the worst of it, and winds there could have even been higher.

Tonight, Matthew was looking to be attempting an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, but this is in question. However, the areal coverage of hurricane force winds and strong tropical storm force winds does appear to have been expanding some, which is not good. The larger area of powerful winds are pushing more water onshore and will worsen the deadly storm surge threat, as well as extend the duration of damaging wind gusts well inland right up the state, and into Ga & SC later this weekend. Hide from the wind. Run from the water.

There has been strong model support for keeping Matthew around past the coming weekend. Speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Forecast Lounge.

There has been increasing model support for Nicole interacting with Matthew and possibly pulling a Fujiwhara, and also possibly hanging around. Speculation on Nicole can be found in the Nicole Forecast Lounge

Finally, this is shaping up to be a once-in-a-lifetime event for the southeast starting tonight. Flhurricane members want it to not be your last. Stop by often and check in. Let us know how you're doing and let us know about how things are in your area Conditions related to Matthew.

Stay safe

NHC KEY MESSAGES

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1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.

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• WAWS Fox 30 TV
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Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach

Nicole Event Related Links


Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Nicole - New for 2018



Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nicole





SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page



Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nicole

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nicole
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nicole -- RAMMB Info


Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




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