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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Nicole and Spawn
      #97544 - Tue Oct 11 2016 11:31 AM

5AM EDT Update 17 October 2016



Rare high-latitude Hurricane Nicole is finally expected to undergo extra-tropical transition by mid-week, but not without setting or helping set all kinds of records.

While not approaching land, Nicole is creating large swells over vast portions of the Atlantic. From NHC:
Quote:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda, the United States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands for the next several days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. These swells are also likely to reach Europe and the northwest coast of Africa in a couple of days. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information.



Elsewhere, a large and persistent area of lower pressure extends from the Caribbean to the Bahamas. Some slow development/s in this region is possible this week, and NHC has highlighted the convection that has been flaring up along Nicole's trailing troff just east of Florida for a 40% chance of becoming a depression or named storm by Friday.
-Ciel


8AM EDT Update 15 October 2016
After only briefly losing tropical characteristics, deep convection has been bursting within the center of Nicole, and the cyclone is undergoing processes that appear to be converting it into a rare mostly tropical hybrid which could actually become a hurricane this weekend, and thus NHC advisories are being continued on Nicole in a way that almost harkens back to a few of the last storms of 2005.
-Ciel



12PM EDT Update 13 October 2016
Major Hurricane Nicole delivered a direct hit on the island nation of Bermuda this morning and is now pulling away to the northeast, with conditions slowly improving. The image below of Bemuda radar shows the small island right inside the eyewall just a little while ago.
-Ciel




9AM EDT Update 13 October 2016
Nicole has weakened back to a category 3, but still a major hurricane, bands are currently affecting the Island and the eye should cross Bermuda in a matter of hours.

11PM EDT Update 12 October 2016
Recon has found that Nicole has strengthened into a very powerful Category 4 Major Hurricane. This could become a historic landfall, as there are no Cat 4 Bermuda landfalls in the NHC record.
-Ciel


7PM Update 12 October 2016
Nicole is nearing Category 3 strength as it nears Bermuda, it has a chance to move very close or just over Bermuda tomorrow. The eye of Bermuda is very well defined on satellite and is likely to be stronger than Hurricane Gonzolo was when it struck the island in 2014.



Those in the area should follow local media/officials and be prepared for a large and dangerous hurricane midday tomorrow.

Bermuda Radar Recording
[ur=http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?247]Bermuda Weather Service Webcam Recording[/url]

Port Bermuda Webcam

Two Bermuda News Live Webcams

Original Update
Tropical Storm Nicole has done a bit of a loop but emerged a stronger storm that is forecast to become a hurricane and possibly travel over or very near Bermuda.

Recon is on its way now to check out the storm, it is likely it may find a hurricane once it does.

More to come on Nicole's approach soon.


Many areas are still recovering from Matthew, and flooding continues in North Carolina.



Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

Nicole Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nicole


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nicole

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nicole
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nicole -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Warnings up for Bermuda as Nicole Approaches [Re: MikeC]
      #97546 - Wed Oct 12 2016 07:57 PM

Nicole is now a Cat 3, the third Major of the season in the Atlantic basin.

Bermuda is not very surge prone from storms approaching from the south, as Nicole is, but given that much of this island is relatively elevated, winds are likely going to be higher than those "at the surface" - and potentially a full category higher.

To its credit, the nation's building codes have resulted in structures designed to withstand winds up to Cat 2, but Nicole is now a strengthening Cat 3, and depending on its exact path, these brutal winds may impact them, especially at the many elevated locations.


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR NICOLE HEADING FOR BERMUDA [Re: MikeC]
      #97548 - Wed Oct 12 2016 11:51 PM

According to Philip Klotzbach of CSU, here are some - yet again - incredible records being broken in the Atlantic basin this month, now with Nicole involved.

* Only one Cat 4 hurricane on record (since 1851) has tracked within 50 miles of Bermuda (10-16-1939)

* With Nicole as the 2cd Cat 4-5 this month in the Atlantic (Matthew the other) - this is the first time on record that this basin has had two Cat 4+s during the month of October.

* With Nicole now a Cat 4 - this is the first Atlantic Cat 4 north of 30* this late in the season (last, Hazel 10-15-1954)

* With Nicole now a Major, only three other Octobers in the Atlantic basin on record also had two Majors (1995, 2005, 2011)

* With Nicole now a Major, 2016 has met NOAA's official definition of an above-average season


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yogeshevo
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: AL
Re: Nicole and Spawn [Re: MikeC]
      #97572 - Wed Dec 14 2016 02:49 AM

Thanks for the information..

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