Update 1PM EST 21 November 2016
SIXTEEN has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Otto with maximum sustained winds estimated to be about 50MPH and a minimum central pressure of 1000mb, which could be conservative. Recon flights scheduled to fly in this afternoon have been canceled.
Interests along and near Otto's forecast path should consider making preparations for a strong tropical cyclone with the potential to produce life-threatening flooding rains.
Above: Nullshchool Visualization of global weather conditions analyzed and forecast by supercomputers
The main circulation center within a persistent area of monsoonal low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean has organized sufficiently to be classified as a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been started on TD16, the sixteenth official tropical cyclone of the historic 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
SIXTEEN is landlocked in the Caribbean and could make landfall as a strong tropical storm or hurricane this week. Prior to being classified, weather associated with its parent circulation had already claimed at least five lives due to flooding, and flooding will likely continue to be a significant threat as this slow moving tropical cyclone dumps copious precipitation near and along its path, possibly adding to the very high death toll from Atlantic basin tropical cyclones this year - 2016 is already the deadliest since the infamous Atlantic hurricane season of 2005.
Note: Storm links below may be delayed and still showing Invest 90L until they fully update.
Otto Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of 16
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 16
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 16 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 16
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 16
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 16 -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Nov 25 2016 01:52 AM)